Silvia Peruccacci, Alessandro Cesare Mondini, Massimiliano Alvioli, Maria Teresa Brunetti, Francesco Bucci, Mauro Cardinali, Ivan Marchesini, Paola Reichenbach, Mauro Rossi, Michele Santangelo, 2019, Aggiornamento dei requisiti utente di SANF-RFI,
P-01-2, 2019,
Abstract
Lo scopo del documento è aggiornare i requisiti utente del sistema SANF-RFI, le cui funzionalità ...
Lo scopo del documento è aggiornare i requisiti utente del sistema SANF-RFI, le cui funzionalità e caratteristiche sono definite nella Proposta Tecnica. L'individuazione dei requisiti utente di SANF-RFI è basata_ (i) su quanto emerso nell'ambito di incontri con RFI, utente del sistema SANF-RFI e dei suoi prodotti, e (ii) sulle conoscenze e competenze del CC CNR IRPI.
Nel documento è riportato l'elenco aggiornato dei requisiti utente di SANF-RFI, suddivisi in requisiti di capacità (CAP), di interfaccia (INT), hardware e software (RHS), e di servizio (SER). I requisiti sono numerati e codificati.
Maria Teresa Brunetti, Silvia Peruccacci, Maria Elena Martinotti, Mauro Rossi, Ivan Marchesini, Massimo Melillo, Stefano Luigi Gariano, 2019, Rapporto sulla validazione di SANF-RFI basato su P-03-1,
P-07-1, 2019,
Abstract
Il rapporto presenta una prima valutazione delle prestazioni di SANF-RFI per la previsione di frane ...
Il rapporto presenta una prima valutazione delle prestazioni di SANF-RFI per la previsione di frane pluvio-indotte lungo le linee ferroviarie di RFI. Tale attività ha incluso l'uso di informazioni sull'occorrenza di frane pluvio-indotte in prossimità o in corrispondenza dell'infrastruttura ferroviaria RFI, e l'implementazione di procedure per il confronto delle previsioni di SANF-RFI con l'occorrenza di frane nei giorni successivi, nel periodo di validità delle previsioni stesse. Allo scopo di validare il sistema e utilizzando i dati contenuti all'interno dei DB di SANF-RFI per il periodo di riferimento, sono state ricostruite_ (i) le condizioni di durata e cumulata di pioggia osservate in corrispondenza dei fenomeni franosi forniti da RFI, (ii) le previsioni di pioggia del modello Cosmo I5, almeno 24 ore prima degli stessi fenomeni franosi, e (iii) le probabilità di innesco di frana predette da SANF-RFI per le piogge osservate, previste e per la combinazione delle stesse modulata con la suscettibilità.
Camici, Stefania; Crow, Wade T.; Brocca, Luca, 2019, Recent advances in remote sensing of precipitation and soil moisture products for riverine flood prediction,
, pp. 247–266, 2019,
Abstract
In this chapter the recent advances in remote sensing for flood prediction are discussed. Remote ...
In this chapter the recent advances in remote sensing for flood prediction are discussed. Remote sensing methods are providing different datasets and products, also operational, useful for improving our capability of monitoring and predicting floods. In this chapter, the two most important variables to be considered for the prediction of floods are analyzed, i.e., precipitation and soil moisture. For these two variables, the challenges and future directions to be addressed for the full exploitation of the satellite precipitation and soil moisture products are identified. Although a lot of work has been done, the authors underline the need of making scientists and end-users aware of the availability and potential of satellite observations. The need to foster a strict collaboration between the remote sensing community (data developers) and the communities of data users (e.g., hydrologists, agronomists) in order to fully exploit satellite datasets in real-world applications is stressed.
Francesca Ardizzone, Francesco Bucci, Mauro Cardinali, Federica Fiorucci, Michele Santangelo, 2019, CARTA INVENTARIO GEOMORFOLOGICA DELLE FRANE E ANALISI DELLA PERSISTENZA SPAZIALE DELLE FRANE, VAL D’AGRI (PZ),
pp.1–42, 2019,
Abstract
Il presente documento illustra le attività svolte nell'ambito del Contratto aperto (n. 2500028560 del 6 ...
Il presente documento illustra le attività svolte nell'ambito del Contratto aperto (n. 2500028560 del 6 luglio 2017) stipulato tra ENI SpA e l'Istituto di Ricerca per la Protezione Idrogeologica (IRPI) del Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR) avente come oggetto il "Analisi e monitoraggio geodinamico". Il Contratto aperto in oggetto si inquadra nell'ambito dell'Accordo quadro n. 4400003660 del 26 novembre 2013, prot. AMMCNT0077433 del
05/12/2013 per attività di Ricerca tra ENI S.p.a. e Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche.
Obiettivo del presente documento è quello di illustrare le attività svolte nel corso dell'anno 2019 dal CNR-IRPI nell'ambito del presente Contratto aperto, relative alla_ (i) realizzazione di una Carta inventario geomorfologica delle frane per un territorio di 25 km 2 che si estende ad est dell'abitato di Marsico Nuovo, a completamento dell'inventario geomorfologico già prodotto per la committenza (attività 2018) su un territorio di 209 km 2 in Val d'Agri (PZ); (ii) analisi della persistenza spaziale delle frane, realizzata sia per l'intero territorio di studio (234 km 2 ) sia per i 10 siti strategici (40 km 2 ) finalizzata alla valutazione delle possibili interazioni tra la distribuzione delle frane e la presenza della flowline.
Francesca Ardizzone, Francesco Bucci, Mauro Cardinali, Federica Fiorucci, Michele Santangelo, 2019, Analisi della franosità. Elaborazioni dati derivanti dalle carte delle fane di tipo geomorfologico e multi-temporale.,
pp.1–56, 2019,
Abstract
Rapporto WP3. Il presente documento illustra le attività svolte nell'ambito del terzo Work Package (WP3) ...
Rapporto WP3. Il presente documento illustra le attività svolte nell'ambito del terzo Work Package (WP3) previsto dalla convenzione tra EAUT e IRPI-CNR del 17 Luglio 2018, avente per oggetto il "Monitoraggio della evoluzione morfologica nel tempo dei movimenti franosi nel bacino dell'invaso della diga di Casanuova sul Fiume Chiascio, attraverso la caratterizzazione geomorfologica e multi-temporale delle frane". In accordo con quanto stabilito dall'Allegato tecnico (DR-001), le attività svolte nell'ambito del WP3 hanno riguardato l'analisi dei dati sulla franosità, derivati dalla carta inventario geomorfologica delle frane (realizzata nell'ambito del WP1, DR-002) e dalla carta inventario multi-temporale delle frane (realizzata nell'ambito del WP2, DR-002). Obiettivo del presente documento è quello di illustrare le attività svolte nell'ambito del WP3, relative alla_
(i) Stima dei volumi, della profondità, e della presunta velocità delle frane. (ii) Analisi della persistenza spaziale delle frane applicata all'intera area di studio e alla Strada Francescana. (iii) Interazione delle frane con 5 progressivi livelli di invaso. (iv) Caratterizzazione geometrica speditiva delle frane interagenti con l'invaso.
Francesca Ardizzone, Francesco Bucci, Mauro Cardinali, Federica Fiorucci, Michele Santangelo, 2019, Carta inventario multi-temporale delle frane, per l’area circostante la diga di Casanuova,
pp.1–23, 2019,
Abstract
Rapporto WP-2. Il presente documento illustra le attività svolte nell'ambito del secondo Work package (WP2) ...
Rapporto WP-2. Il presente documento illustra le attività svolte nell'ambito del secondo Work package (WP2) previsto dalla convenzione tra EAUT e IRPI-CNR del 17 Luglio 2018, avente per oggetto il "Monitoraggio della evoluzione morfologica nel tempo dei movimenti franosi nel bacino dell'invaso della diga di Casanuova sul Fiume Chiascio, attraverso la caratterizzazione geomorfologica e multitemporale delle frane" Le attività svolte nell'ambito del WP2 hanno riguardato la realizzazione di una "Carta inventario multi-temporale delle frane" realizzata per un territorio di circa 12 km 2 , compreso nell'area di studio del precedente WP1, e limitato ai versanti prossimi allo sbarramento e soggetti all'oscillazione del livello di invaso. Obiettivo del presente documento è quello di illustrare le attività svolte per la produzione della "Carta inventario multi-temporale delle frane" e di evidenziare le aree che hanno registrato una più elevata persistenza spaziale e ricorrenza temporale della franosità.
Francesca Ardizzone, Francesco Bucci, Mauro Cardinali, Federica Fiorucci, Michele Santangelo, 2019, Carta inventario di tipo geomorfologico delle frane,
pp.1–52, 2019,
Abstract
Rapporto del WP1. Lo scopo di questo documento è quello di descrivere i principali criteri ...
Rapporto del WP1. Lo scopo di questo documento è quello di descrivere i principali criteri di mappatura delle frane e le diverse tipologie di carte inventario delle frane, con particolare riferimento alle caratteristiche delle carte geomorfologiche. Saranno inoltre illustrate le procedure adottate per la realizzazione della carta inventario delle frane di tipo geomorfologico per l'area di studio della diga di Casanuova, così come previsto dalla presente convenzione (Convenzione tra EAUT e IRPI-CNR, DA-001; Allegato Tecnico alla Convenzione tra EAUT e IRPI-CNR, DA-002). Il documento comprende_ una descrizione introduttiva dei fenomeni franosi, con una breve disamina della classificazione dei dissesti; una descrizione dei criteri per il riconoscimento, l'interpretazione e la mappatura delle frane tramite l'uso di tecniche foto-interpretative; una descrizione delle procedure e dei criteri utilizzati per la realizzazione della carta inventario delle frane di tipo geomorfologico per l'area dell'invaso di Valfabbrica.
Mauro Rossi, Michele Santangelo, Massimiliano Alvioli, Ivan Marchesini, Mauro Cardinali, Francesco Bucci, Federica Fiorucci, 2019, Composite landslide susceptibility maps,
SGI 2019, Parma, Italia, 16/09/2019,
Abstract
Landslides are heterogeneous natural processes. Given the significant variability of the different landslide types and ...
Landslides are heterogeneous natural processes. Given the significant variability of the different landslide types and in particular of their dimensional characteristics, style of movement and triggering mechanisms, multiple models and approaches have been developed in the literature. At present, no single model or modelling approach is applicable to all the different landslide types. This also limits the prediction of the spatial occurrence of landslides achieved through susceptibility models which aims at estimating the probability of the spatial landslide occurrence. Such models divide and classify a territory on the basis of its propensity to specific landslide types, using relationships linking the occurrence of landslides with their conditioning factors. In this work, we identify and apply a methodology for the combined modelling of susceptibility posed by different landslide types. The methodology initially envisages the modelling of the susceptibility for the individual landslide types using differentiated approaches, calibration, evaluation and application phases and subsequently their combination. In the modelling, the pixel is used as the base mapping unit, while the slope unit is used as a mapping unit for a subsequent spatial susceptibility aggregation. The result maps, here defined as "composite susceptibility maps", subdivide a territory according to its propensity to failure of one or more landslide types. The proposed model was applied as part of the Project "Paesaggi Sicuri", funded by the Italian Ministry of Cultural Heritages and Activities (MIBACT), in a portion of the UNESCO site "Porto Venere, Cinque Terre e Isole" characterized by the occurrence of different landslides types, namely slides, falls and flows. The derived composite susceptibility map allowed a more realistic analysis of the geo-hydrological vulnerability being able to consider jointly the different landslides types occurring in the study area.
Mauro Rossi, Ivan Marchesini, Maria Elena Martinotti, Maria Teresa Brunetti, Silvia Peruccacci, Vinicio Balducci, Fausto Guzzetti, 2019, Landslide early warning_ lessons learned after 10-year experience in Italy,
SGI 2019, Parma, Italia, 16/09/2019,
Abstract
As prioritized by the Sendai Framework, enhancing disaster preparedness is fundamental for the effective response, ...
As prioritized by the Sendai Framework, enhancing disaster preparedness is fundamental for the effective response, for taking actions in anticipation of events, and to ensure that the appropriate capacities are in place for effective response and recovery at all levels. Under this view early warning systems can be seen as irreplaceable tools to supporting the Civil Protection authorities in the preparedness and response phases. This is particularly relevant for the case of rainfall-induced slope failures that occur worldwide every year, claiming lives and causing severe economic disruption. Implementing early warning systems to forecast the occurrence of such geo-hydrological phenomena is difficult and challenging both from the scientific and technological side. Here we present a framework developed in Italy (Rossi et al., 2012) for the operation forecasting of rainfall induce landslides over large areas, which includes (i) criteria, tools and technological supports for the collection of rainfall induced landslide occurrences; (ii) scientific methods and tools for the analysis of the relation between rainfall and landslides occurrences and for the landslide rainfall threshold definition; (iii) operational early warning system procedures and technological supports for the rainfall induced landslide forecasting; (iv) interfaces for the query and analysis of the early warning system outputs; (v) criteria, tools and technological supports for the validation of the early warning system outputs. The main lessons learned in the last decade and the most critical issues experienced implementing such framework for the entire Italian territory (SANF system) and for different regions both in Italy and India (SARF systems, LANDSLIP LEWS system) are highlighted and discussed.
Mauro Rossi, Fausto Guzzetti, Paola Salvati, Marco Donnini, Elisabetta Napolitano, Cinzia Bianchi, 2019, Modelling societal landslide risk in Italy,
SGI 2019, Parma, Italia, 16/09/2019,
Abstract
Landslides cause every year worldwide severe damages to the population. A quantitative knowledge of the ...
Landslides cause every year worldwide severe damages to the population. A quantitative knowledge of the impact of landsliding phenomena on the society is fundamental for a proper and accurate assessment of the risk posed by such natural hazards. In this work, a novel approach is proposed to evaluate the spatial and the temporal distribution of societal landslide risk from historical, sparse, point information on fatal landslides and their direct human consequence.s (Rossi et al., Accepted). The approach was tested in Italy, using a detailed catalogue listing 5571 fatalities caused by 1017 landslides at 958 sites across Italy, in the 155-year period 1861 - 2015. The model adopting a Zipf distribution to evaluate societal landslide risk for the whole of Italy, and for seven physiographic and 20 administrative subdivisions of Italy. The model is able to provide estimates of the frequency (and the probability) of fatal landslides, based on the parameters, namely (i) the largest magnitude landslide F, (ii) the number of fatal events E, and (iii) the scaling exponent of the Zipf distribution s, which controls the relative proportion of low vs. large magnitude landslides. Different grid spacings, g and circular kernel sizes, r were tested finally adopting g = 10 km and r = 55 km. Using such geometrical model configuration, the values of the F, E and s parameters were derived for each grid cells revealing the complexity of landslide risk in Italy, which cannot be described properly with a single set of such parameters. Based on such modeling configuration. This model configuration allowed to estimate different risk scenarios for landslides of increasing magnitudes, which were validated checking the anticipated return period of the fatal events against information on 130 fatal landslides between 1000 and 1860, and eleven fatal landslides between January 2016 and August 2018. Despite incompleteness in the old part of the record for the low magnitude landslides, and the short length and limited number of events in the recent period 2016 - 2018, the anticipated return periods are in good agreement with the occurrence of fatal landslides in both validation periods. Despite the known difficulty in modelling sparse datasets, the proposed approach was able to provide a coherent and realistic representation and new insight on the spatial and temporal variations of societal landslide risk in Italy.
Martinotti Maria Elena, Marchesini Ivan, Rossi Mauro, Peruccacci Silvia, Guzzetti Fausto, 2019, Local indexes, based on a nationwide threshold, for rainfall-induced landslides,
SGI 2019, Parma, Italia, 16/09/2019,
Abstract
The Italian territory is affected by rainfall-induced landslides, which can result in loss of lives ...
The Italian territory is affected by rainfall-induced landslides, which can result in loss of lives and widespread damage. Empirical rainfall thresholds are widely used for predicting the occurrence of failures triggered by intense or prolonged rainfall at national and regional scale, even if they have empirical limitations for small geographical areas. This limitations depend on the size of the landslide catalogue available for the definition of statistically robust rainfall threshold over small areas (Peruccacci et al. 2012). Martinotti et al. 2017 theorized, designed and tested the Ensemble-Non-Exceedance Probability (E-NEP) algorithm, which exploits standard rainfall records obtained from rain gauges and a given rainfall threshold to quantitatively assess the landslide occurrence probability over time. Using the rainfall threshold defined by Peruccacci et al. 2017 for the entire Italian territory, they applied the E-NEP algorithm to analyse the landslides triggered during a time period of torrential rain between 1 and 6 September 2014 in the Gargano Promontory (Puglia) and found that the E-NEP metrics provided better diagnostics than the single metrics often used for landslide forecasting.
Mauro Rossi, Marco Donnini, 2019, Estimation Of Regional Scale Effective Infiltration Using An Open Source Hydrogeological Balance Model And Free,
AOGS 2019, 28/07/2019,
Abstract
Effective infiltration (EI) is the amount of precipitation infiltrating into the ...
Effective infiltration (EI) is the amount of precipitation infiltrating into the soil and recharging the aquifers. EI is estimated using direct or indirect methods or using water balance models. Direct and indirect methods lead to biased EI estimates, since based on simplified schemas of groundwater bodies and of their recharge mechanisms. Water balance models include different processes and variables, but they are seldom applied due to the limited availability of the input data, particularly at regional scales. We propose a method for EI estimation over large areas based on a monthly water balance model exploiting open source software and free/open data. The model integrates procedures to estimate EI and other water balance components, accounting for the uncertainty of input data. The model is calibrated in the Central Apennines (Italy), where EI reference values are available from the literature, and later applied in the Alps, where regional EI estimates are missing.
Mauro Rossi (1), Ivan Marchesini (1), Maria Elena Martinotti (1), Maria Teresa Brunetti (1), Silvia Peruccacci (1), Vinicio Balducci (1), Fausto Guzzetti (1), 2019, Landslide early warning_ lessons learned after 10-year experience in Italy,
AOGS 2019, Singapore, 28/07/2019,
Abstract
As prioritized by the Sendai Framework, enhancing disaster preparedness is fundamental for the effective response, ...
As prioritized by the Sendai Framework, enhancing disaster preparedness is fundamental for the effective response, for taking actions in anticipation of events, and to ensure that the appropriate capacities are in place for effective response and recovery at all levels. Under this view early warning systems can be seen as irreplaceable tools to supporting the Civil Protection authorities in the preparedness and response phases. This is particularly relevant for the case of rainfall-induced slope failures that occur worldwide every year, claiming lives and causing severe economic disruption. Implementing early warning systems to forecast the occurrence of such geo-hydrological phenomena is difficult and challenging both from the scientific and technological side. Here we present a framework developed in Italy for the operation forecasting of rainfall induce landslides over large areas, which includes (i) criteria, tools and technological supports for the collection of rainfall induced landslide occurrences; (ii) scientific methods and tools for the analysis of the relation between rainfall and landslides occurrences and for the landslide rainfall threshold definition; (iii) operational early warning system procedures and technological supports for the rainfall induced landslide forecasting; (iv) interfaces for the query and analysis of the early warning system outputs; (v) criteria, tools and technological supports for the validation of the early warning system outputs. The main lessons learned in the last decade and the most critical issues experienced implementing such framework for the entire Italian territory (SANF system) and for different regions both in Italy and India (SARF systems, LANDSLIP LEWS system) are highlighted and discussed.
Mauro Rossi (1), Margherita Agostini (1), Narges Kariminejad (2), Mohsen Hosseinalizadeh (2), Hamid Reza Pourghasemi (3), Dino Torri (1), 2019, Dynamic distributed gully erosion modelling and validation,
8TH INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON GULLY EROSION ISGE 2019, TOWNSVILLE (AUSTRALIA), 21/07/2019,
Abstract
Gully erosion is a significant geo-hydrological phenomenon occurring worldwide. Such phenomena contribute significantly to the ...
Gully erosion is a significant geo-hydrological phenomenon occurring worldwide. Such phenomena contribute significantly to the soil erosion on a catchment and to its morphological shaping. In so doing, it impacts all the processes acting in a hillslope. Being one of the principal processes of soil erosion, gully erosion will play an important role in worsening the effects of climate and land use changes in the near future. Therefore, the prediction of the spatial and temporal occurrence of these phenomena is an interesting problem both for the scientific world and more in general for the society. In this work we model gully erosion on different study areas, using a distributed pixel-based model. The LANDPLANER model was used for the purpose, mainly due to its ability to deal with scenario-based analysis and due to the limited requirements of input data in its basic configuration, which include a DEM and a land cover map to derive the parameters of the runoff through the Curve Nuumber method. The twofold erosion modelling schema integrated in LANDPLANER, namely a quasi-static topographic threshold approach and a dynamic simplified erosion index, were tested in some study areas, considering the local morphological, climatological and Land Use/Land Cover conditions. We propose a framework to derive such dynamical model input data to better characterize the spatial and temporal occurrence of gully phenomena. Open source (SENTINEL-2) and commercial satellite (WorldView 3) data are used for the purpose and with the main objectives to perform long term, seasonal, event and scenario-based modelling analyses. Modelling results were validated using geomorphological and gully phenomena inventories, using different spatial criteria and different performance metrics. We maintain that the tested modelling and validation approaches can be easily replicated and applied in other different study areas to better characterize the spatial and temporal occurrence of gully erosion phenomena.
Dino Torri (1), Jean Poesen (2), Mauro Rossi (1), Sofie de De Geeter (2), Cati Cremer (2), 2019, Gully head modelling in Mediterranean badland areas,
8TH INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON GULLY EROSION ISGE 2019, TOWNSVILLE (AUSTRALIA), 21/07/2019,
Abstract
The prediction of the location of gully heads in various environments is an important step ...
The prediction of the location of gully heads in various environments is an important step towards predicting slope and catchment dynamics and to properly estimate soil erosion rates. So far, data collection and modelling of topographic thresholds for gully head prediction has mainly focused on forested areas, rangelands, pastures and cropland. However, such data for badlands are very scarce, even if such environments are most interesting to study gully processes, resulting from the complex interaction between soil degradation and erosion, and soil building processes. In this study we extend the database on topographical thresholds for gully head formation through data collection in badland areas and to improve the prediction of gully head development in a given landscape. For this purpose, we selected different badland sites in the Mediterranean that are characterized by different badland morphologies that developed in differed geo-environmental conditions. The analysis of the conditions under which gully heads developed allowed to refine a recently reported gully head threshold equation, and to illustrate how to use the updated model. This model shows that the resistance to gully head formation depends on slope gradient and drainage area at gully heads, land use in the gully catchment at the moment of gully development (expressed numerically by parameters derived from the Runoff Curve Number method), surface rock fragment cover, presence of joints, pipes, and factors/processes affecting soil detachment rate. This study improves our understanding of environmental conditions that control the development of gully heads in various badland types through a combination of field data collection of gully heads and modelling.
Sterlacchini Simone, Bordogna Gloria, Marchesini Ivan, Lucini Barbara., 2019, Relazione scientifica del Progetto STRESS – Strategies, Tools and new data for Resilient Smart Societies,
pp.1–10, 2019,
Abstract
Il report di Progetto sintetizza le finalità e i risultati ottenuti nell'ambito del progetto STRESS ...
Il report di Progetto sintetizza le finalità e i risultati ottenuti nell'ambito del progetto STRESS che ha progettato, implementato e testato un prototipo di Infrastruttura Spaziale di Informazioni (ISI) a supporto delle attività dei pianificatori e gestori del rischio idrogeologico attraverso l'acquisizione di nuovi dati (da satellite e/o volontariamente forniti dai cittadini) e nuovi strumenti utili a migliorare le procedure da attuare per la valutazione della suscettibilità, pericolosità e impatto, da eventi di tipo idrogeologico. STRESS ha anche applicato strategie innovative, basate sull'ICT (Information & Communication Technology), nel campo della comunicazione, educazione e disseminazione, a differenti livelli istituzionali, dei risultati progettuali e delle strategie di prevenzione, monitoraggio e mitigazione del rischio idrogeologico al fine di incrementare la consapevolezza dei cittadini verso i rischi e promuovere la loro partecipazione a livello delle strategie di decision making, recependo i principi fondamentali della Ricerca e dell'Innovazione Responsabile (Responsible Research and Innovation - RRI).
Paola Salvati e Cinzia Bianchi, 2019, Rapporto sul Rischio posto alla Popolazione italiana da Frane e Inondazioni Quinquennio 2014-2018,
2019,
Abstract
In Italia, le frane e le inondazioni sono fenomeni diffusi, ricorrenti e pericolosi. Da oltre ...
In Italia, le frane e le inondazioni sono fenomeni diffusi, ricorrenti e pericolosi. Da oltre vent'anni, l'Istituto di Ricerca per la Protezione Idrogeologica del CNR raccoglie, organizza e analizza informazioni sull'impatto che gli eventi di frana e d'inondazione hanno sulla popolazione. Il Rapporto Quinquennale sul Rischio posto alla Popolazione italiana da Frane e Inondazioni unisce le informazioni dei rapporti relative al periodo compreso fra il 1 gennaio 2014 e il 31 dicembre 2018, e contiene_ i) l'elenco di tutte le località dove le persone hanno perso la vita o sono rimaste ferite in seguito ad una frana o ad una inondazione; ii) la mappa della loro distribuzione geografica; iii) alcune statistiche sugli eventi di frana e d'inondazione con vittime; iv) l'analisi a scala regionale del numero di morti e dispersi. Il Rapporto riporta inoltre le brevi descrizioni di alcuni eventi geo-idrologici, tra i più gravi per numero di vittime e per estensione territoriale, avvenuti sul territorio italiano nei cinque anni.
Luca Brocca, Stefania Camici, Luca Ciabatta, Angelica Tarpanelli, Sara Modanesi, Paolo Filippucci, Christian Massari, Maria Teresa Brunetti, Silvia Peruccacci, Stefano Luigi Gariano, and Massimo Melillo, 2019, Recent advances in using satellite soil moisture and precipitation for flood and landslide prediction in the Mediterranean basin,
European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2019, Vienna, Austria, 7-12 April 2019,
Abstract
The Mediterranean region has been identified as one of the main climate change hotspots_ its ...
The Mediterranean region has been identified as one of the main climate change hotspots_ its sensitivity to global change is high and its evolution remains uncertain. The region experiences many interactions and feedbacks at the oceanic, atmospheric, and hydrological levels, while facing high anthropogenic activities. Analysing the water cycle over the Mediterranean region is of major importance to environmental and socio-economic aspects. The satellite monitoring of the Mediterranean water cycle represents one of the key challenges for the hydrological community.
The presentation will show recent results on using satellite soil moisture and precipitation products for hydrometeorological prediction in the Mediterranean region, and particularly for the prediction of floods and landslides.
Specifically, we will show the comparison of multiple satellite precipitation products for predicting flood in 100+ basins over the Mediterranean Basin by also using different hydrological models. Moreover, the assessment of satellite precipitation products for predicting the occurrence of landslides in Italy is carried out. Among the investigated satellite products, we have firstly considered state-of-the-art products such as TMPA (TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis), GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement), and H SAF (EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management). Secondly, we have tested the innovative products using the SM2RAIN algorithm for rainfall retrieval from multiple satellite soil moisture products including ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer), SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity mission) and SMAP (Soil Moisture Active and Passive mission).
Stefano Luigi Gariano, Massimo Melillo, Silvia Peruccacci, and Maria Teresa Brunetti, 2019, Influence of rainfall temporal resolution on the definition of empirical rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence,
European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2020, Vienna, Austria, 7-12 aprile 2019,
Abstract
The definition of empirical rainfall thresholds for the prediction of landslide occurrence is conditioned by ...
The definition of empirical rainfall thresholds for the prediction of landslide occurrence is conditioned by several
issues. The most debated ones are_ the definition of objective and automatic procedures for threshold calculation;
the evaluation and quantification of diverse uncertainties resulting from data and methods; the definition of
validation procedures; the implementation of thresholds into landslide early warning systems. However, threshold
reliability strongly depends on the quality and quantity of input data, e.g. rainfall time series and information on
landslide occurrence. In particular, the temporal resolution of rainfall data influences the equation, the shape and
the validity range of the thresholds. Recent studies have proved that the use of rainfall data with coarse temporal
resolution causes a systematic underestimation of thresholds, due to the overestimation of the duration of the
rainfall events responsible for the failures. Moreover, thresholds calculated using daily rainfall data are always
lower and steeper than those defined with hourly data. These issues have relevant implications when the thresholds
are implemented in warning systems for the operative prediction of landslide occurrence.
In this work, we analyse how the rainfall temporal resolution influences the definition of rainfall thresholds,
their validation and the uncertainty associated with them. For the purpose, we use hourly rainfall measurements
collected by a network of 172 rain gauges and geographical and temporal information on 561 rainfall-induced
landslides occurred in Liguria region (northern Italy) between October 2004 and November 2014. We use a
comprehensive tool, already published, that automatically reconstructs the rainfall conditions responsible for
the failures and calculates frequentist cumulated event rainfall-rainfall duration (ED) thresholds. To evaluate the
influence of different temporal resolutions we cluster the rainfall data in different, increasing bins of 1, 3, 6, 12,
and 24 hours (representing decreasing temporal resolutions). We apply the automatic tool to reconstruct rainfall
conditions responsible for failures and to define ED thresholds. We find that the rainfall temporal resolution
influences considerably the threshold definition. In particular, decreasing the rainfall temporal resolution, we
obtain thresholds with a smaller intercept, a higher slope, a shorter range of validity, and higher uncertainties. On
the other hand, it seems that the rainfall temporal resolution does not influence the validation procedure and the
threshold performance indicators.
Maria Teresa Brunetti, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Massimo Melillo, Silvia Peruccacci, 2019, Landslide-related weather thresholds,
pp.1–27, 2019,
Abstract
The document is the deliverable of WP3 "Meteorological Dynamics_ Knowledge, tools &methodologies contributing to a ...
The document is the deliverable of WP3 "Meteorological Dynamics_ Knowledge, tools &methodologies contributing to a landslide multi-hazard framework" and describes the actions performed in Task 3.4 "Analyse & develop weather-based thresholds for short-term (1 day to weeks) landslide forecasting". The main goal of the activity is the definition of empirical rainfall thresholds for the possible initiation of landslides in the Darjeeling and Nilgiris test sites.
The report describes the empirical cumulated event rainfall - rainfall duration (ED) thresholds for the Darjeeling and Nilgiris test sites. For the purpose, a tool for the objective and reproducible reconstruction of rainfall events and of rainfall conditions responsible for landslides was used. The reconstructed rainfall conditions were then revised by expert investigators to take into account (i) the local rainfall regimes of the two test sites (presence of monsoons), (ii) the coarse (daily) temporal resolution of rainfall measurements and (iii) the possible inaccuracy in the landslide occurrence date. A frequentist statistical method was adopted to define ED thresholds for different non-exceedance probabilities in the two test sites. Additionally, we conducted an analysis of the magnitude of the rainfall conditions responsible for the landslides.
Ivan Marchesini, Federico Fugnoli, Cristiano Corradini, Augusto Benigni, 2019, ITALGAS – Rapporti di Prova riguardanti 253 siti d’indagine,
11 marzo 2019, 2019,
Abstract
Laboratorio CNR IRPI Perugia. Consegna Rapporti di Prova per accertamenti
sperimentali e valutazioni comparative utili per ...
Laboratorio CNR IRPI Perugia. Consegna Rapporti di Prova per accertamenti
sperimentali e valutazioni comparative utili per la verifica della conformità della
rete di distribuzione del gas in prescelte tratte/sezioni del territorio italiano. Rif.
contratto ITALGAS - CNR prot. CNR n. 0018528 del 17/ marzo 2016.
Donnini, Marco, Marchesini, Ivan, Zucchini, Azzurra, 2019, A new Geo-Lithological Map (Geo-LiM) for Central Europe (Germany, France, Switzerland, Austria, Slovenia, and Northern Italy),
2019,
Abstract
We introduce a new geo-lithological map of Central Europe (Geo-LiM) elaborated adopting a lithological classification ...
We introduce a new geo-lithological map of Central Europe (Geo-LiM) elaborated adopting a lithological classification compliant to the methods more used in the litterature for estimating the consumption of atmospheric CO2 due by chemical weathering.
Geo-LiM represents a novelty if compared with published global geo-lithological maps. The first novelty is due by the attention paid in discriminating metamorphic rocks that were classified according to the chemistry of protoliths. The second novelty is that the procedure used for the definition of the map is made available on the web to allow the replicability and reproducibility of the product.
Ivan Marchesini, Mauro Rossi, 2019, CC-DPC 2018-2019 – WP3 Implementazione SANF 3.0 presso DPC,
Versione 1.0, 2019,
Abstract
Il presente documento descrive le attività svolte nell'ambito del WP3 dell'accordo.
L'obiettivo del WP era l'implementazione ...
Il presente documento descrive le attività svolte nell'ambito del WP3 dell'accordo.
L'obiettivo del WP era l'implementazione di SANF 3.0 presso il DPC.
Gran parte delle attività previste dal WP sono state ridisegnate in seguito ai risultati del
Task 3.1, che ha riguardato la pianificazione del lavoro da svolgere in accordo con i tecnici
del DPC.
Le attività decise in sede di Task 3.1 sono state svolte.
Non è stato tuttavia possibile giungere alla piena implementazione di SANF 3.0 a causa di
problemi non dipendenti dalla volontà di IRPI CNR.
MAURO ROSSI, IVAN MARCHESINI, 2019, RFI – ANALISI DELLA RETE PLUVIOMETRICA FIDUCIARIA DEL DIPARTIMENTO DI PROTEZIONE CIVILE,
P-02-1, 2019,
Abstract
Il presente documento contiene un'analisi della rete pluviometrica fiduciaria del Dipartimento
di Protezione Civile (DPC). Il ...
Il presente documento contiene un'analisi della rete pluviometrica fiduciaria del Dipartimento
di Protezione Civile (DPC). Il rapporto viene redatto nell'ambito del contratto RFI - CC CNR-
IRPI per la "Customizzazione per RFI del Sistema di Allertamento Nazionale per la
previsione del possibile innesco di fenomeni franosi indotti da piogge lungo la rete ferroviaria
italiana (SANF-RFI)". Il documento descrive le analisi svolte ai fini di preparare un
successivo rapporto inerente la proposta di infittimento della rete pluviometrica disponibile
sul territorio nazionale.
Dopo una breve sezione introduttiva, nelle successive 4 sezioni sono descritte le procedure
per la stima della affidabilità dei pluviometri della rete fiduciaria del DPC, la procedura
adottata per l'individuazione dei bacini idrologici drenanti verso la rete RFI, l'analisi della
distribuzione dei pluviometri lungo la rete RFI e l'analisi della copertura strumentale dentro
ai bacini idrologici drenanti verso la rete RFI. La sezione finale riporta alcune considerazioni
sulle analisi eseguite.
Paola Salvati, Ardizzone Francesca, Mauro Cardinali, Federica Fiorucci, Federico Fugnoli, Fausto Guzzetti, Ivan Marchesini, Silvia Peruccacci, Mauro Rossi, Michele Santangelo, Ivan Vujica, Paolo Godani, Gianluca Rinaldi, 2019, An example of active collaboration between citizens, local governments and researchers for vulnerability assessment in urban environment_ the Sentinelle del Territorio Project,
EGU General Assembly 2019, Vienna, 7-12 April 2019,
Abstract
The "Sentinelle del Territorio" (Sentinels of territory) project is part of the local Plan for ...
The "Sentinelle del Territorio" (Sentinels of territory) project is part of the local Plan for the reduction of geo-hydrological risk in the La Spezia Municipality (Liguria region, northern Italy) and aims at (i) increasing the knowledge of the geo-hydrological hazards and (ii) monitoring, in detail, the building characteristics and vulnerability through the active participation of different actors. The project arises from the awareness that monitoring the territory and increasing knowledge of its critical aspects are preliminary to any following action, structural or not, aimed at risk mitigation. The activities are based on an ongoing collaboration of citizens, municipal technicians, civil protection volunteers, professional associations and IRPI researchers. For the purpose, tools for the collection and management of multiple data regarding the city buildings were designed and different forms, based on the type of geo-hydrological process to which buildings are subject, were structured. To support surveyors, volunteers and municipal technicians the forms were designed to be compiled on paper or through Apps specifically developed for Android and IOS based smartphones. For buildings placed in flood prone areas, different information on the ground and basement floors and on the water drainage system was prioritised. In the landslide susceptible areas, forms contained further fields dedicated to the presence, type and dimension of cracks and on the presence and maintenance of any existing landslide mitigation works.
The forms were designed using ODK Aggregate for Android and GISCloud for IOS platforms that allowed the building geo-localization, depending to the smartphone GPS receiver system, and media file association to the building records. After the form filling, data were automatically sent to a dedicated server. Despite the initial efforts spent for the conceptualization of the forms, the use of these technologies resulted very effective and allowed the rapid collection and the quick update of a huge amount of data.
Analysis of the collected data provides a general overview of the characteristics of the buildings and of their vulnerability to geo-hydrological processes. The project results reached two main goals_ an up-to-date comprehensive knowledge of the buildings condition and an increase of citizens' awareness on geo-hydrological hazards, involving people in the land management process.
Vennari, Carmela and Parise, Mario and Marchesini, Ivan and Lollino, Piernicola, 2019, Sinkholes inclusion in a geodatabase about geo-hydrological hazards in Apulia, southern Italy,
EGU General Assembly 2019, 07/04/2019-12/04/2019,
Abstract
The karst nature of large sectors of Apulia, combined with the high diffusion of different ...
The karst nature of large sectors of Apulia, combined with the high diffusion of different types of artificial cavities,
make sinkholes among the most widespread geo-hydrological hazards in the region. They have caused several
damage to infrastructures, building and population.
Sinkholes represent a widespread problem in Apulia, and therefore they must necessarily be considered in studies
concerning the regional geo-hydrological hazards and the related risks. With this aim we included sinkholes in a
regional geodatabase concerning floods and landslides in Apulia, as a fundamental step for the susceptibility and
hazard study of sinkhole occurrence on the specific territory. At these aims, it is necessary that the database is
rigorously built, based on reliable information and data, including all those elements necessary for the subsequent
analysis.
Here we present a geodatabase about geo-hydrological hazards, developed by the geomorphology group at the
Institute of Research for the Geo-Hydrological Protection of the National Research Council of Italy (IRPI-CNR),
now modified to take into account the geomorphological characteristics of Apulia, namely the sinkhole phenomena.
A sinkhole is considered as a "phenomenon", belongs to an "event" that represent the ensemble of the phenomena
(landslides, floods, sinkholes) caused by a "trigger" (of meteorological, seismic, or anthropogenic origin).
In the database are included all the sinkholes for which the connection with an underground cavity, either of
natural or anthropogenic origin, is certain. In addition, the information on occurrence time of the sinkhole, and
knowledge of its location, are fundamental.
The geodatabase allows to collect information about different types of geo-hazard (landslide, flood, sinkhole),
to record with different geometry (point, line, polygon) both the location of the phenomena and of the damaged
objects/mitigation works, to report data in format compliant with the EU Flood Directive (2010), even in the
specific format required by the Department of the Italian Civil Protection.
Esposito, Giuseppe and Marchesini, Ivan and Mondini, Alessandro and Rossi, Mauro and Reichenbach, Paola and Salvati, Paola, 2019, Coupling of satellite radar data and Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) in an innovative approach aimed at supporting landslide inventories development,
EGU General Assembly 2019, 07/04/2019-12/04/2019,
Abstract
After major geo-hydrological disasters, the rapid detection of both location and extension of the areas ...
After major geo-hydrological disasters, the rapid detection of both location and extension of the areas struck by floods and landslides is essential to manage recovery operations. In these cases, one of the most important tools required by decision-makers is a georeferenced map showing the affected areas. Preliminary maps reporting the potential location of landslides, for example, may also represents a starting point for field Geologists engaged in the production of detailed event landslides inventories, allowing optimize time and efforts. Optical and radar satellite images are experiencing an increasing use in the emergency operations due to improved revisiting times and spatial resolution. However, optical scenes are often useless for long times because of a permanent cloud cover or shadow effects hiding the collapsed mountain slopes. For this reason, the landslide research community is dedicating more efforts to implement new approaches based on satellite radar data, which typically are not affected by these types of disturbance. Even if the development of landslide inventories from radar images is still a challenge, such data represent a valuable support to generate archives of information acquired systematically, forming therefore clusters of "Big data" that can be useful in the context of susceptibility, hazard, and landslide risk analysis. In the innovative approach presented in this contribution, we faced many of the issues related to the use of satellite radar data for supporting the production of event landslides inventories. The research activities have been carried out in the framework of the STRESS (Strategies, Tools and new data for REsilient Smart Societies) project, devoted to design, implement and test a prototype of a Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) to support decision makers in the geo-hydrological risk management. Specifically, our group have implemented an automatic processing chain that, starting from the downloading of Sentinel-1 satellite images, produces a georeferenced map highlighting the likely location of landslides. The procedure exploits multi-temporal variations of the radar backscattered signal induced by significant land cover changes, which can be associated to the occurrence of rapid-moving landslides. This map is sent to local scientists and citizens by means of a Smart App developed to collect, store and analyze Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI), to ease and improve results obtained from satellites. The STRESS project is also aimed at promoting and exploiting VGI freely provided by citizens involved as "human sensors" in the production of landslide inventories, providing direct information if no evidences are available from remote sensing. Outcomes resulting from both remote sensing and VGI activities should thereby support the updating of existing landslides susceptibility models and hazard assessment. The test site of the project is located in the Central Alps (Italy), where the steep slopes are very prone to landslides and debris flow processes. However, a preliminary application of the automatic processing chain has been successfully performed for a wide area of the Papua New Guinea affected by dozens of landslides in 2018, as well as the implementation of the VGI Smart App has been completed and verified.
Baldella, Micro Bellini and Diodato, Cesare and Esposito, Simone and Assl, Youness El and Metuge, Yao Kouassi and Lucaroni, Giovanni Svend and Marchesini, Ivan and Rossi, Mauro and Salvati, Paola, 2019, Involving high school students in early warning system validation.,
EGU General Assembly 2019, Vienna, 07/04/2019 - 12/04/2019,
Abstract
Validating Natural Hazard (NH) early-warning system (EWS) requires the continuous monitoring of the occurrences of ...
Validating Natural Hazard (NH) early-warning system (EWS) requires the continuous monitoring of the occurrences of natural hazards, their collection in a data structure and their confrontation with the forecasts produced by
the system.
Social media streaming is an emerging technology to collect data on landslides occurrence. In particular, the use
the Twitter API is consolidating among all the other social media APIs. Continuous data on the occurrence of
landslide events can be collected and recorded in a database. Visualization tools can be really useful for EWS
validation to display, at the same time, the temporal evolution of the landslide EWS forecasts and the occurrence
of the slope failures.
The collaboration project between Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection (IRPI), a research institute
active in the field of geo-hydrological hazards and the ITTS A. Volta a secondary schools aims to increase the
perception and knowledge that students and teachers have on geo-hydrological risk. This is achieved through the
development of tools and analysis which allow them to become aware of the phenomenological characteristics of
landslides and floods, their impact on the population/environment and the rules of conducts to be followed before,
during and after the disasters. The project allows students to work with IRPI data and tools and leads them to
develop software applications that can be accessed from the communication devices (personal computers, tablets,
smartphones) for the dissemination of content and for understanding the phenomena.
The present contribution describes the recent achievements, carried out entirely by six high school student, on the
development of_ (i) an automatic system for the detection, filtering, classification, storage and visualization on a
web map of the tweets containing information about landslide occurrences, and (ii) a web service for the contemporary visualization of the time streaming of the EWS forecasts and of the landslides occurrences.
The work was carried out independently by three group of students with the supervision of the researchers, and
carried out according to the following steps_ (i) analysis of the state of the art, (ii) identification of the method for
tracking the work done, (iii) identification of the points of contact between the activities of the different groups
in order to promote the exchange of knowledge and transversal work. Finally, during a specific divulgation workshop organized at their school, the students presented their work to the colleagues and professors, while the IRPI
researchers presented their research activities and disseminated information about geo-hydrological hazards.
Marchesini, Ivan and Vennari, Carmela and Salvati, Paola and Guzzetti, Fausto and Napolitano, Elisabetta and Donnini, Marco and Bianchi, Cinzia and Casarano, Domenico and Parise, Mario and Lollino, Piernicola, 2019, LAND-deFeND 1.1-a database structure for landslide, floods, sinkholes and their effects.,
EGU General Assembly 2019, Vienna, 07/04/2019-12/04/2019,
Abstract
Collecting, organizing and using historical information on natural hazards (NH) is crucial for developing methods,
systems ...
Collecting, organizing and using historical information on natural hazards (NH) is crucial for developing methods,
systems and procedures aimed at protecting citizens, structures and infrastructures, for planning mitigation
actions, and for increasing risk awareness. Information on past events is essential e.g., to update the catalogue of
flood events required by the EU Flood Directive, to develop and test empirical rainfall thresholds for landslide
occurrence, and to identify areas subject to specific or multiple hazards. LAND-deFeND - LANDslides and
Floods National Database, is a freely available database structure designed to collect information about past
landslides and floods (geo-hydrological hazards, GHH). The structure is flexible, allowing to_ (i) collect, in a
single platform, information on different phenomena (i.e. landslides, floods, sinkholes), (ii) store information on
the location of the GHHs, on the damaged sites, and of the remedial / mitigation works, using different types go
geometries (i.e. points, lines, polygons), and a to (iii) manage, separately and jointly, the uncertainty inherent to
the temporal and the spatial information on the GHHs. In addition, LAND-deFeND is compliant with the EC
INSPIRE and Flood Directives. Here we present a new version of the database structure - LAND-deFeND 1.1 -
which was recently developed, and we discuss the rationale behind the implementation of new features, including
the possibility to (i) collect and store information on sinkholes, (ii) collect and store information on the rainfall
event responsible for landslide occurrence, (iii) to store the bounding box of individual meteorological triggers,
(iv) to manage information about the warning level issued by civil protection authorities before and during a
GHHs, and to (v) produce reports and output / exchange data in formats compliant to the EC Flood Directive,
and to the Italian Department for Civil Protection (DPC). The new release of the LAND-deFeND database allows regional civil protection offices to maintain regional GHH databases potentially interoperable at national level.
Mauro Rossi, Ivan Marchesini, 2019, Accordo collaborazione CNR IRPI – DPC (2016) “WP2 Implementazione SANF 3.0 c,
2019,
Abstract
Le attività del WP2 hanno avuto l'obiettivo di implementare la versione 3.0 di SANF presso ...
Le attività del WP2 hanno avuto l'obiettivo di implementare la versione 3.0 di SANF presso l'infrastruttura tecnologica del CC CNR IRPI secondo le specifiche/requisiti software forniti dal DPC. Tali attività sono descritte nel presente rapporto in relazione ai Task originariamente previsti dall'Accordo tra CC CNR IRPI e DPC di segutio elencati_
oTask 2.1 - Nuove procedure e nuova interfaccia web SANF 3.0 presso la Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) del CC CNR IRPI;
oTask 2.2 - Integrazione algoritmi E-NEP;
oTask 2.3 - Integrazione nuova mappa di suscettibilità da frana a scala nazionale;
oTask 2.4 - Integrazione della nuova suddivisione in zone di allerta;
oTask 2.5 - Aggiornamento statistiche pluviometriche;
oTask 2.6 - Esportazione di layer prodotti dal sistema previsionale SANF 3.0 come servizi WMS per la loro implementazione / visualizzazione nel sistema DEWETRA;
oTask 2.7 - Potenziamento tecnologico e manutenzione del sistema.
Mauro Rossi, Luca Pisano, Michele Santangelo, Federica Fiorucci, Veronica Zumpano, Francesco Bucci, Ivan Marchesini, Mauro Cardinali, Massimiliano Alvioli, 2019, Carta suscettibilità da frana regionale (ID: D04-04) e Specifiche implementazione SARF_ integrazione carta suscettibilità da frana (ID: D04-05),
2019,
Abstract
Il documento illustra le attività svolte dall'Istituto di Ricerca per la Protezione Idrogeologica (IRPI), Centro ...
Il documento illustra le attività svolte dall'Istituto di Ricerca per la Protezione Idrogeologica (IRPI), Centro di Competenza (CC) del Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (DPC), nell'ambito del progetto dal titolo "Valutazione integrata di dissesti geo-idrologici nel territorio della regione Puglia, modelli interpretativi dei fenomeni e definizione di soglie di pioggia per il possibile innesco di frane superficiali" per la Sezione Protezione Civile della Regione Puglia.
In particolare, il documento è suddiviso in sette capitoli. Il Capitolo 1 contiene un'introduzione ai contenuti del documento. Il Capitolo 2 riporta alcuni concetti relativi alla suscettibilità da frana. Il Capitolo 3 sintetizza l'approccio modellistico utilizzato ai fini della stima della suscettibilità, mentre il Capitolo 4 descrive i dati utilizzati nella modellazione. Il Capitolo 5 descrive in dettaglio il modello utilizzato e riporta i risultati ottenuti e le performance previsionale del modello di suscettibilità. Il Capitolo 6 descrive le modalità di integrazione del modello di suscettibilità nel sistema SARF-Puglia, mentre il Capitolo7 riporta la bibliografia di riferimento.
Broeckx, Jente; Rossi, Mauro; Lijnen, Kobe; Campforts, Benjamin; Poesen, Jean; Vanmaercke, Matthias, 2019, Landslide mobilization rates_ A global analysis and model,
Earth-science reviews 201 (2019). doi_10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.102972,
DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.earscirev.2019.102972
Abstract
Landslides are a main driver of landscape evolution and a dominant sediment source in many ...
Landslides are a main driver of landscape evolution and a dominant sediment source in many regions worldwide. Nevertheless, their role in sediment mobilization and denudation remains poorly quantified, especially at the global scale. Based on an extensive literature review, we compiled measured contemporary landslide mobilization rates (i.e. the average annual volume of hillslope material displaced per unit area; LMR, [m(3)/km(2)/y]) from 116 study areas worldwide. Using this dataset, we calibrated and validated a multiple regression model that simulates global patterns of LMR at decadal timescales. This model explains about 62% of the observed variance in LMR based on topography, seismicity and lithology. By applying this model at the global scale and accounting for uncertainties due to observation and prediction errors, we estimate that annually about 56 billion m(3) (similar to 100 gigaton) is mobilized by landslides worldwide. Intercontinental and interregional differences are large with Asia accounting for 68% (38 billion m(3)) of the global LMR. The Central and Southeast Asian mountain ranges (including the Himalaya and Karakoram) account for 50% (28 billion m(3)) of this rate, while covering only 2% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Comparisons of our simulated LMR with other data and models from literature suggest that, in highly tectonically active regions, around 70% of the mobilized landslide volumes are due to earthquake-triggered landslides. At the global scale, the contribution of coseismic landsliding to the total landslide mobilization rate is likely in the order of 30-40%. Using available databases of measured catchment sediment yield (SY), we also conducted a statistical comparison between measured SY and estimated LMR for nearly 3000 catchments in Europe and Africa. We observe highly significant relationships between LMR and SY for Europe (R-2: 0.35, p < 0.001) and Africa (R-2 : 0.2, p < 0.001). Furthermore, landslide mobilization rates are typically larger than the corresponding SY. Overall, this study provides a first estimation of the global patterns of LMR. The results confirm the importance of landsliding as a dominant process of landscape denudation and sediment mobilization, but also illustrate the huge regional variations that characterize this process as well as the importance of sediment dynamics within catchments.
Marco Mancini, Gianluca Vignaroli, Francesco Bucci, Mauro Cardinali, Gian Paolo Cavinato, Cristina Di Salvo, Silvia Giallini, Massimiliano Moscatelli, Federica Polpetta, Maria Luisa Putignano, Michele Santangelo, Pietro Sirianni, 2019, New stratigraphic constraints for the Quaternary source-to-sink history of the Amatrice Basin (central Apennines, Italy),
Geological journal (Chichester Engl., Online) 55 (2019): 4226–4251. doi_10.1002/gj.3672,
DOI: 10.1002%2Fgj.3672
Abstract
New stratigraphic constraints have been detailed for the Amatrice Basin, an intermountain morpho-structural depression of ...
New stratigraphic constraints have been detailed for the Amatrice Basin, an intermountain morpho-structural depression of the central Apennines (Italy) hosting up to 60-m-thick Quaternary continental deposits. Through the results coming from a 1_5,000 scale field survey and from facies analyses, we documented the geometry, thickness, and extent of the post-orogenic continental deposits filling this basin. The Quaternary deposits form a complex architecture of purely aggradational and aggradational/degradational terraces with a dominant component of conglomerates and gravels, at the bottom, and subordinate sands, at the top. The Quaternary deposits overlie an up to 1-km-thick succession of flysch sediments that accumulated in the western Laga Basin during the Miocene syn-orogenic phases in central Apennines. The collected data are used to constrain the style and mechanisms of both syn-orogenic (i.e., subsidence and terrigenous sedimentation in foredeep environment) and post-orogenic (i.e., uplift, erosion, and continental sedimentation) phases documented for the central Apennines. In particular, the post-orogenic history of the Amatrice Basin, if compared with those of surrounding intermountain basins of the central Apennines, includes limited basin subsidence, reduced thickness of the post-orogenic covers and progressive deepening of the drainage network during the Quaternary. The results shed light on the source-to-sink history of the Amatrice Basin, which results from a long-lived interaction between regional-scale factors (climate changes, chain uplift, and extensional tectonic regime) that influenced the activity of the hydrodynamic pattern and the amount of intrabasinal sedimentation during the Quaternary.
Federico DI RITA1, Fabrizio LIRER2, Giulia MARGARITELLI3, Fabrizio MICHELANGELI1 & Donatella MAGRI 1, 2019, CLIMATE AND HUMAN INFLUENCE ON THE VEGETATION OF TYRRHENIAN ITALY DURING THE LAST 2000 YEARS_ NEW INSIGHTS FROM MICROCHARCOAL AND NON-POLLEN PALYNOMORPHS,
Geografia fisica e dinamica quaternaria (Testo stamp.) 42 (2019). doi_10.4461/ GFDQ.2019.42.10,
DOI: 10.4461%2F GFDQ.2019.42.10
Abstract
The history of vegetation in the Italian peninsula during the last 2000
years was shaped by ...
The history of vegetation in the Italian peninsula during the last 2000
years was shaped by a complex interplay of several factors, including the
history of human societies, changes in land use, and the succession of
climate events. In order to disentangle these factors, we present a multidisciplinary record from a marine core collected in the Gulf of Gaeta,
interpreted in the light of other palaeoenvironmental records from Tyrrhenian Italy. Pollen records, complemented by new data on Non-Pollen
Palynomorphs (NPPs) and microcharcoal, are used to reconstruct changes
in the vegetational landscape, stock-breeding activities, fire, and land use.
Foraminiferal and oxygen isotope data provide independent information
on climate changes. NAO-index and sunspot data support the interpretation of changes in atmospheric circulation. In this paper, by examining the
effect of climate and human activity on the landscape during a series of
periods of the last 2000 years, representing cultural or climate phases (Roman Period, Dark Ages, Medieval Climate Anomaly, Little Ice Age, and
Modern Period), we found that human impact produced a general and progressive decline of forest vegetation. However, irrespective of the societal
cultural phase, forest declines occurred when negative NAO oscillations
induced dry climate, especially during sunspot minima
Fabrizio Lirer 1 , Giulia Margaritelli 2 , Ines Alberico 1 , Sergio Bonomo 3 ,
Lucilla Capotondi 4 , Antonio Cascella 5 , Federico Di Rita 6 , Luciana Ferraro 1 ,
Donatella Domenica Insinga 1 , Donatella Magri 6 , Nicola Pelosi 1 ,
Paola Petrosino 7 & Mattia Vallefuoco 1, 2019, CLIMATIC VARIABILITY OVER THE LAST TWO MILLENNIA IN THE MEDITERRANEAN AREA_ A REVIEW FROM MARINE PALEOARCHIVES,
Geografia fisica e dinamica quaternaria (Testo stamp.) 42 (2019): 71–86. doi_10.4461/ GFDQ.2019.42.11,
DOI: 10.4461%2F GFDQ.2019.42.11
Abstract
A review of the climatic variability over the last two millennia based on oxygen stable ...
A review of the climatic variability over the last two millennia based on oxygen stable isotopic (? 18 O G. ruber ) signals from different areas of the Mediterranean Basin (Minorca Basin, central and south Tyrrhenian Sea, Taranto Gulf, south Adriatic Sea and Israel) has been proposed. The correlation of data testifies an almost synchronicity of the identified climate events, suggesting an homogeneous response of the marine system to climate oscillations. This overall picture documents that the collapse of the Western Roman Empire results chronologically related to cold event Roman III solar minima and that the Roman IV solar minimum (Dark Age), marks the transition vs a long term cooling trend, spanning ca. 1100 years, that culminates during the Maunder solar minimum (LIA). In addition, during the Maunder cold event, the strong increase in abundance of planktonic foraminifer Globlorotalia truncatulinoides, suggest the establishment of vertical mixing during the winter season induced by strong winds linked to an atmospheric blocking event.
Angelo Zinzi ; Maria Teresa Melis ; Maria Teresa Brunetti ; Francesco Zucca ; Paolo Giommi, 2019, MATISSE for Moon Mapping_ exploiting advanced archiving and 3D visualization solutions for a joint international project,
IGARSS, pp. 5013–5014, Yokohama, Japan, 28/7-2/8/2019,
Abstract
Exploiting data acquired by different
instruments with a 3D visualization is recently becoming a
mandatory requirement for ...
Exploiting data acquired by different
instruments with a 3D visualization is recently becoming a
mandatory requirement for a great part of space missions (e.g.,
[1]).
In this context, we adapted MATISSE [2] to the needs of the
Moon Mapping project [3], by adding to its database
observations and high-order outputs coming from Chang'e 1
and Chang'e 2 (in the following CE1 and CE2, respectively)
Chinese missions to the Moon. This task required the
development of ad hoc software, able to ingest and spatially
(re)project the data, mostly which are mostly formatted
compliant to the PDS (Planetary Data System) standard.
The possibility of analyzing the data with an effective threedimensional
perspective added value to their scientific content
and at the same time gave also and easy and "smart" access to
the data to non-professional users, which is one of the main
target of the Moon Mapping project.
M. T. Melis a, M. T. Brunetti b, C. Collu a, V. Demurtas a, S. Fiorucci b, S. Podda a, M. Scaioni c,
A. Zinzi, 2019, MORPHOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF LUNAR SINUOUS RILLES,
IGARSS 2019, pp. 4904–4907, Yokohama, Japan, 28/7-2/8/2019,
Abstract
Lunar rilles are any of the long, narrow depressions on
the surface of the Moon. These ...
Lunar rilles are any of the long, narrow depressions on
the surface of the Moon. These structures have different
characteristics, which are related to their origin. Here, a
classification of the lunar rilles in different groups with
similar morphometric features and likely the same
formation mechanisms is proposed. The detection,
classification and mapping of lunar rilles has been achieved
in two quadrants of the northern hemisphere, which are
located between -90°E to 90°E longitude and 0°N to 60°N
latitude. For the detection and mapping of rilles, we used
images from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera
(LROC) [1] which have a resolution of 100 m/pixel and the
DEM from Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) with a
resolution of 6 m/pixel.
This work is part of an international cooperation between
Italy and China called "Moon Mapping project" for the
collaboration between Italian and Chinese college students.
Lucchetti A., Penasa L., Pajola M., Massironi M., Brunetti M.T., Cremonese G. & OSIRIS-REx Team, 2019, Landslides on Comet 67P,
XV Congresso Nazionale di Scienze Planetarie, pp. 118–118, Firenze, 4-8/2/2019,
Abstract
Mass movements are almost ubiquitous in the Solar System, with rockfall, avalanches or landslides that ...
Mass movements are almost ubiquitous in the Solar System, with rockfall, avalanches or landslides that are
observed not only on Earth, but also on multiple other bodies. The characteristics of the observed landslides
(i.e. type of failure, geometry, velocity, etc.) are strongly influenced by several factors such as the initial mass
position, the material and its mechanical properties, the topographic relief and the volatile content. In this
work, we identified 26 landslides located on the surface of the comet 67P using OSIRIS Rosetta images. We
investigate the landslide shapes and aspect ratios through the use of the high-resolution shape model of 67P.
Assuming the height to runout length as an approximation for the friction coefficient of the cometary material,
we find that the mapped mass failures behaves thoroughly different from the one observed on other Solar
System icy bodies. Indeed, being the 67P high friction coefficients comparable, or even higher, than those
found on Earth landslide, they imply a mechanically rocky-type behavior for the cometary material. This
makes 67P, and comets in general, very peculiar objects that are mainly composed of ice and organics, but that
are characterized by rocky-type properties rather than icy-type characteristics.
Fiorucci S., Podda S., Collu C., Brunetti M.T., Melis M.T., Scaioni M., 2019, Detection, classification and mapping of rilles in the northern hemisphere of the Moon,
XV Congresso Nazionale di Scienze Planetarie, pp. 66–66, Firenze, 4-8/2/2019,
Abstract
Lunar rilles are any of the long, narrow depressions on the surface of the Moon. ...
Lunar rilles are any of the long, narrow depressions on the surface of the Moon. These structures have different
characteristics, which are related to their origin. Here, a classification of the lunar rilles in different groups
with similar morphometric features and likely the same formation mechanisms is proposed. The detection,
classification and mapping of lunar rilles has been achieved in two quadrants of the northern hemisphere,
which are located between -90°E to 90°E longitude and 0°N to 60°N latitude. For the detection and mapping
of rilles, we used images from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC) [1] which have a resolution
of 100 m/pixel and the DEM from Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) [2] with a resolution of 6 m/pixel.
Lunar rilles include generic sinuous rilles (SR), cracks on lava deposits (CL), surface lava flows (LF),
subsurface lava tubes or catena (crater chains, CC) and tectonic structures (TS). For each type of the classified
structures, morphologic parameters, i.e. length, width, perimeter, area, depth, longitude and latitude have been
measured in order to allow a better understanding of how these features formed [3]. For those sinuous rilles
classified as remnants of shallow lava channels or subsurface collapsed lava tubes, morphometric analysis
included the extraction of the sinuosity index and of the regional slope and azimuth.
This work is born inside an international cooperation between Italy and China called "Moon Mapping
project" for the cooperation between Italian and Chinese college students [4].
Brunetti M.T., Ardizzone F., Peruccacci S., Guzzetti F, 2019, Geometrical properties of landslides on Earth and Mars,
XV CONGRESSO NAZIONALE DI SCIENZE PLANETARIE, pp. 56–56, Firenze, 4-8/02/2019,
Abstract
On Earth, landslides occur in various morphological and climatic settings and can strongly affect the ...
On Earth, landslides occur in various morphological and climatic settings and can strongly affect the evolution
of a landscape. On Mars, slope failures have been also observed since decades (e.g., [1], [2]), especially in
the large canyons of Valles Marineris. In the perspective of a novel interest in the human settlement on the red
planet it is important to explore the local environmental conditions and the possible hazards. For the purpose,
we analyzed the geometrical features of landslides on Earth and Mars and compared the relationships between
their geometrical parameters (i.e. landslide volumes, areas, drop heights and runout distances). Data for this
study were collected using landslide catalogues available from several authors [3, 4, 5, 6, 7]. In particular,
we selected rock and debris slides, rock avalanches on Earth and Mars and terrestrial submarine landslides.
Having insights on the geometrical properties of the landslides on the two planets might provide tools for the
understanding of the sliding mechanisms in different environments.
Silvia Peruccacci, Maria Teresa Brunetti, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Massimo Melillo, Mauro Rossi, Fausto Guzzetti, 2019, National and regional empirical rainfall thresholds for possible shallow landslide occurrence in Italy,
Congresso SIMP-SGI-SOGEI 2019 - Il tempo del pianeta Terra e il tempo dell'uomo: Le geoscienze fra passato e futuro, pp. 570–570, Parma, 16-19/09/2019,
Abstract
The Italian territory is highly prone to shallow rainfall-induced landslides. Moreover, a large physiographic, geological ...
The Italian territory is highly prone to shallow rainfall-induced landslides. Moreover, a large physiographic, geological and climatic variability characterizes the national landscape. For these reasons - and for the abundance of available rainfall measurements - Italy is an ideal test site to investigate how rainfall conditions that induced shallow landslides may vary in different environmental settings. Since 2007, we have been building a catalogue of rainfall events responsible for the triggering of landslides in Italy. Using accurate landslide information and hourly rainfall data recorded by a network of 2228 rain gauges, we reconstructed 2309 rainfall events that induced 2819 (mostly) shallow landslides in Italy in the period January 1996 - February 2014. We calculated the rainfall duration D (in hours) and the cumulated event rainfall E (in mm) presumably responsible for each failure. Using a well-established frequentist method, we calculated empirical cumulated event rainfall-rainfall duration (ED) thresholds at different non-exceedance probabilities and the uncertainties associated with their parameters. Using the entire dataset, we determined a national threshold representing the rainfall conditions that can likely result in landslides in Italy. By considering six environmental subdivisions based on topography, lithology, soil regions, land cover, climate, and precipitation regime, we defined 26 regional thresholds
identifying the rainfall conditions responsible for landslide triggering in different environmental settings in Italy.
Overall, the resulting national and environmental thresholds are similar, and cover a small part of the possible DE domain. Nevertheless, thresholds for meteorological domains, which are classified according to the mean annual precipitation (MAP) become higher at increasing values of the MAP. This confirms the idea that the landscape adjusts to the regional meteorological conditions. We also observed that the national threshold at 20% non-exceedance probability was capable of predicting all the rainfall-induced landslides that caused casualties between 1996 and 2014. We suggest that this threshold can be used as lower limit to forecast fatal rainfall-induced landslides in Italy.
The findings encourage the use of empirical rainfall thresholds for landslide forecasting in Italy, but poses an empirical limitation to the possibility of defining accurate thresholds for small geographical areas, with insufficient datasets.
Lucchetti, Alice; Penasa, Luca; Pajola, Maurizio; Massironi, Matteo; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Cremonese, Gabriele; Oklay, Nilda; Vincent, Jean-Baptiste; Mottola, Stefano; Fornasier, Sonia; Sierks, Holger; Naletto, Giampiero; Lamy, Philippe L.; Rodrigo, Rafael; Koschny, Detlef; Davidsson, Bjorn; Barbieri, Cesare; Barucci, Maria Antonietta; Bertaux, Jean-Loup; Bertini, Ivano; Bodewits, Dennis; Cambianica, Pamela; Da Deppo, Vania; Debei, Stefano; De Cecco, Mariolino; Deller, Jacob; Ferrari, Sabrina; Ferri, Francesca; Franceschi, Marco; Fulle, Marco; Gutierrez, Pedro; Guettler, Carsten; Ip, Wing-H.; Keller, Uwe; Lara, Luisa; Lazzarin, Monica; Lopez Moreno, Jose; Marzari, Francesco; Tubiana, Cecilia, 2019, The Rocky-Like Behavior of Cometary Landslides on 67P,
Geophysical research letters (2019). doi_10.1029/2019GL085132,
DOI: 10.1029%2F2019GL085132
Abstract
Landslides have been identified on several solar system bodies, and different mechanisms have been proposed ...
Landslides have been identified on several solar system bodies, and different mechanisms have been proposed to explain their runout length. We analyze images from the Rosetta mission and report the global characterization of such features on comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko's surface. By assuming the height to runout length as an approximation for the friction coefficient of landslide material, we find that on comet 67P, this ratio falls between 0.50 and 0.97. Such unexpected high values reveal a rocky-type mechanical behavior that is much more akin to Earth dry landslides than to icy satellites' mass movements. This behavior indicates that 67P and likely comets in general are characterized by consolidated materials possibly rejecting the idea that they are fluffy aggregates. The variability of the runout length among 67P landslides can be attributed to the different volatile content located in the top few meters of the cometary crust, which can drive the mass movement.
Stefano Luigi Gariano, Massimo Melillo, Silvia Peruccacci, Maria Teresa Brunetti, 2019, How much does the rainfall temporal resolution affect rainfall thresholds for landslide triggering?,
Natural hazards (Dordr., Online) 100 (2019): 16–655. doi_10.1007/s11069-019-03830-x,
DOI: 10.1007%2Fs11069-019-03830-x
Abstract
In many areas of the world, the prediction of rainfall-induced landslides is usually carried out ...
In many areas of the world, the prediction of rainfall-induced landslides is usually carried out by means of empirical rainfall thresholds. Their definition is complicated by several issues, among which are the evaluation and quantification of diverse uncertainties resulting from data and methods. Threshold effectiveness and reliability strongly depend on the quality and quantity of rainfall measurements and landslide information used as input. In this work, the influence of the temporal resolution of rainfall measurements on the calculation of landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds is evaluated and discussed. For the purpose, hourly rainfall measurements collected by 172 rain gauges and geographical and temporal information on the occurrence of 561 rainfall-induced landslides in Liguria region (northern Italy) in the period 2004-2014 are used. To assess the impact of different temporal resolutions on the thresholds, rainfall measurements are clustered in increasing bins of 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h. A comprehensive tool is applied to each dataset to automatically reconstruct the rainfall conditions responsible for the failures and to calculate frequentist cumulated event rainfall-rainfall duration (ED) thresholds. Then, using a quantitative procedure, the calculated ED thresholds are validated. The main finding of the work is that the use of rainfall measurements with different temporal resolutions results in considerable variations of the shape and the validity range of the thresholds. Decreasing the rainfall temporal resolution, thresholds with smaller intercepts, higher slopes, shorter ranges of validity and higher uncertainties are obtained. On the other hand, it seems that the rainfall temporal resolution does not influence the validation procedure and the threshold performance indicators. Overall, the use of rainfall data with coarse temporal resolution causes a systematic underestimation of thresholds at short durations, resulting in relevant drawbacks (e.g. false alarms) if the thresholds are implemented in operational systems for landslide prediction.
Giuseppe Esposito (1), Antonio Parodi (2), Martina Lagasio (2) , Rocco Masi (2), Giovanni Nanni (3), Filiberto Russo (3), Stefano Alfano (3), Gaetano Giannatiempo (3), 2019, Characterizing Consecutive Flooding Events after the 2017 Mt. Salto Wildfires (Southern Italy): Hazard and Emergency Management Implications,
Water (Basel) 11(12) (2019). doi_10.3390/w11122663,
DOI: 10.3390%2Fw11122663
Abstract
Every summer, wildfires affect thousands of steep watersheds in Italy, causing the partial or complete ...
Every summer, wildfires affect thousands of steep watersheds in Italy, causing the partial or complete destruction of vegetation, and changes in soil hydraulic properties. Such effects alter the hydrologic response of watersheds, increasing post-fire debris and sediment-laden flow hazard. This study characterizes the most relevant predisposing and triggering factors for a sequence of four post-fire flooding events, which, in the late summer-autumn of 2017, affected Montoro village in southern Italy. This research work consists of a fire severity assessment based on multispectral satellite images, characterization of meteorological systems and related flood-triggering rainfall, and provides an overview of the damage that occurred in the repeatedly affected urban area using crowdsourced data. The research findings demonstrate that the analyzed area burned with moderate-high (64.4%) and low severity (35.6%) levels. All the flooding events were triggered by rainfall evaluated as non-extreme, but with relevant peak intensities (I10 and I30), associated with the first convective storms impacting the burned watersheds. The crowdsourced data highlight the fact that roads and buildings on footslopes were inundated by mud and debris transported by rapid flows. The study identifies a clear relationship between wildfires and flooding processes and provides useful information for hazard assessment and emergency management operations.
Maria Teresa Brunetti, Maria Elena Martinotti, Silvia Peruccacci, Ivan Marchesini, Monica Solimano, Mauro Rossi, 2019, Validazione delle previsioni del SARF Liguria,
pp.1–27, 2019,
Abstract
Il presente documento contiene la definizione delle procedure e i risultati della validazione delle capacità ...
Il presente documento contiene la definizione delle procedure e i risultati della validazione delle capacità previsionali del SARF Liguria.
Tali analisi rientrano nelle attività di ricerca previste nell'ambito dell'Accordo Quadro di collaborazione tra l'Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione dell'Ambiente Ligure (ARPAL) e il Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Istituto di Ricerca per la Protezione Idrogeologica (CNR IRPI) per la "Sperimentazione, validazione e sviluppo del Sistema di Allertamento Regionale per la previsione di Frane pluvio-indotte in Liguria (SARF Liguria)" [DA-006].
Tale documento riporta dati e informazioni relativi alla consegna del prodotto "Validazione delle previsioni del SARF Liguria" previsto dal suddetto Accordo.
Il presente documento è suddiviso in quattro capitoli. Il Capitolo 1 contiene un'introduzione ai contenuti del documento. Nel Capitolo 2 è descritto il catalogo utilizzato per la validazione del SARF Liguria, nel Capitolo 3 sono mostrati i risultati della validazione e nel Capitolo 4 sono riportate alcune considerazioni sull'interpretazione delle previsioni del SARF Liguria alla luce dei risultati della validazione.
Vignaroli Gianluca, Mancini Marco, Brilli Mauro, Giustini Francesca, Moscatelli Massimiliano, Voltaggio Mario, Bucci Francesco, Cardinali Mauro, Yu Tsai-Luen, Shen Chuan-Chou, 2019, Early-Middle Pleistocene extensional faulting in the Amatrice Basin (central Apennines, Italy) at the hanging wall of the seismogenic structures,
TOOLS, DATA AND MODELS FOR 3D SEISMOTECTONICS_ THE ITALIAN OVER TIME LABORATORY. A CRUST INTERDISCIPLINARY WORKSHOP IN MEMORY OF GIAMPAOLO PIALLI, Perugia, 9-10 July 2019, 9-10/07/2019,
Abstract
The Amatrice Basin is an intermountain morphostructural depression of the central Apennines (Italy) that hosted ...
The Amatrice Basin is an intermountain morphostructural depression of the central Apennines (Italy) that hosted large amount of the epicentral distribution activated during the 2016-2017 seismic sequence. The basin rests on the hanging wall of the Gorzano-Laga Fault, a major NW-SE-striking extensional fault that is part of the complex seismogenic fault array. While structures and kinematics have been previously documented for the Gorzano-Laga Fault, no details on kinematics, styles of deformation, and time of activity have been yet provided for the fault systems resting within the Amatrice Basin.
This work deals with the mechanisms of nucleation and development of the Amatrice Fault System (AFS), a ~10 km-long fault system located in the depocentre of the Amatrice Basin. Our multidisciplinary approach combines geological-structural investigations with geochronological (230Th/234U, Uranium-series disequilibrium) and geochemical (?13C and ?18O stable isotope) analyses on selected carbonate structures (calcite-filled veins and calcite fibres on fault surfaces). Our results are used to address the spatial-temporal evolution of the AFS in a complex mechanism of growth and link of isolated segments, likely assisted by fluid migration and calcite mineralisation. The stale isotope compositions and the geochronological dating attest for a meteoric water ingress through and along the AFS extensional faults in the Early-Middle Pleistocene. The AFS constrains the long-term history of the extensional tectonics regime in the Amatrice Basin, providing useful correlation with the activity of the basin-bounding Gorzano-Laga Fault.
Salciarini, Diana; Brocca, Luca; Camici, Stefania; Ciabatta, Luca; Volpe, Evelina; Massini, Roberta; Tamagnini, Claudio, 2019, Physically based approach for rainfall-induced landslide projections in a changing climate,
Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers. Geotechnical engineering 172 (2019): 481–495. doi_10.1680/jgeen.18.00216,
DOI: 10.1680%2Fjgeen.18.00216
Abstract
In a changing climate, assessing the effects that the variation of the expected rainfalls can ...
In a changing climate, assessing the effects that the variation of the expected rainfalls can cause to slope stability is of primary importance. Precipitations are expected to increase, and, in particular, there will be more events characterised by extreme rainfalls, which legitimates the possibility of an increase in landslide activity. A probabilistic physically based model, which takes into account the uncertainty in soil characterisation, has been applied to a study area in central Italy, forced with different scenarios of expected rainfalls. The results of the prediction are compared in terms of variation of percentage of unstable territory. It is observed that the projection of the expected rainfall produces a general increase of the number of potentially unstable zones. Although many uncertainties in the analyses of the climatic trends and in their related effects at the ground still exist, the presented approach shows that physically based methods can be used to support quantitative projections of the expected impacts.
Kumar, Ashish; Ramsankaran, Raaj; Brocca, Luca; Munoz-Arriola, Francisco, 2019, A Machine Learning Approach for Improving Near-Real-Time Satellite-Based Rainfall Estimates by Integrating Soil Moisture,
Remote sensing (Basel) 11 (2019). doi_10.3390/rs11192221,
DOI: 10.3390%2Frs11192221
Abstract
Near-real-time (NRT) satellite-based rainfall estimates (SREs) are a viable option for flood/drought monitoring. However, SREs ...
Near-real-time (NRT) satellite-based rainfall estimates (SREs) are a viable option for flood/drought monitoring. However, SREs have often been associated with complex and nonlinear errors. One way to enhance the quality of SREs is to use soil moisture information. Few studies have indicated that soil moisture information can be used to improve the quality of SREs. Nowadays, satellite-based soil moisture products are becoming available at desired spatial and temporal resolutions on an NRT basis. Hence, this study proposes an integrated approach to improve NRT SRE accuracy by combining it with NRT soil moisture through a nonlinear support vector machine-based regression (SVR) model. To test this novel approach, Ashti catchment, a sub-basin of Godavari river basin, India, is chosen. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA)-based NRT SRE 3B42RT and Advanced Scatterometer-derived NRT soil moisture are considered in the present study. The performance of the 3B42RT and the corrected product are assessed using different statistical measures such as correlation coefficient (CC), bias, and root mean square error (RMSE), for the monsoon seasons of 2012-2015. A detailed spatial analysis of these measures and their variability across different rainfall intensity classes are also presented. Overall, the results revealed significant improvement in the corrected product compared to 3B42RT (except CC) across the catchment. Particularly, for light and moderate rainfall classes, the corrected product showed the highest improvement (except CC). On the other hand, the corrected product showed limited performance for the heavy rainfall class. These results demonstrate that the proposed approach has potential to enhance the quality of NRT SRE through the use of NRT satellite-based soil moisture estimates.
Brocca, Luca; Filippucci, Paolo; Hahn, Sebastian; Ciabatta, Luca; Massari, Christian; Camici, Stefania; Schueller, Lothar; Bojkov, Bojan; Wagner, Wolfgang, 2019, SM2RAIN-ASCAT (2007-2018): global daily satellite rainfall data from ASCAT soil moisture observations,
Earth system science data (Print) 11 (2019): 1583–1601. doi_10.5194/essd-11-1583-2019,
DOI: 10.5194%2Fessd-11-1583-2019
Abstract
Long-term gridded precipitation products are crucial for several applications in hydrology, agriculture and climate sciences. ...
Long-term gridded precipitation products are crucial for several applications in hydrology, agriculture and climate sciences. Currently available precipitation products suffer from space and time inconsistency due to the non-uniform density of ground networks and the difficulties in merging multiple satellite sensors. The recent "bottom-up" approach that exploits satellite soil moisture observations for estimating rainfall through the SM2RAIN (Soil Moisture to Rain) algorithm is suited to build a consistent rainfall data record as a single polar orbiting satellite sensor is used.
Fausto Guzzetti, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Silvia Peruccacci, Maria Teresa Brunetti, Ivan Marchesini, Mauro Rossi, Massimo Melillo, 2019, Geographical landslide early warning systems,
Earth-science reviews 200 (2019). doi_10.1016/j.earscirev.2019.102973,
DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.earscirev.2019.102973
Abstract
The design, implementation, management, and verification of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) are gaining increasing ...
The design, implementation, management, and verification of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) are gaining increasing attention in the literature and among government officials, decision makers, and the public. Based on a critical analysis of nine main assumptions that form the rationale for landslide forecasting and early warning, we examine 26 regional, national, and global LEWSs worldwide from 1977 to August 2019. We find that currently only five nations, 13 regions, and four metropolitan areas benefit from LEWSs, while many areas with numerous fatal landslides, where landslide risk to the population is high, lack LEWSs. Operational LEWSs use information from rain gauge networks, meteorological models, weather radars, and satellite estimates; and most systems use two sources of rainfall information. LEWSs use one or more types of landslide forecast models, including rainfall thresholds, distributed slope stability models, and soil water balance models; and most systems use landslide susceptibility zonations. Most LEWSs have undergone some form of verification, but there is no accepted standard to check the performance and forecasting skills of a LEWS. Based on our review, and our experience in the design, implementation, management, and verification of geographical LEWSs in Italy, we conclude that operational forecast of weather-induced landslides is feasible, and it can help reduce landslide risk. We propose 30 recommendations to further develop and improve geographical LEWSs, and to increase their reliability and credibility. We encourage landslide forecasters and LEWSs managers to propose open standards for geographical LEWSs, and we expect our work to contribute to this endeavour.