Publications

Publications found: 2022

People Vulnerability to Landslide_ Risky Behaviours and Dangerous Conditions by Gender and Age

Paola Salvati, Mauro Rossi, Cinzia Bianchi, and Fausto Guzzetti, 2021, People Vulnerability to Landslide_ Risky Behaviours and Dangerous Conditions by Gender and Age, Understanding and Reducing Landslide Disaster Risk, edited by Guzzetti, Fausto, Mihali? Arbanas, Snje?ana, Reichenbach, Paola, Sassa, Kyoji, Bobrowsky, Peter T., Takara, Kaoru, pp. 427–434. Switzerland_ Springer International Publishing, 2021,

Abstract
Landslides are frequent and destructive geo-hydrological events that cause harm to people every year worldwide. ...
Landslides are frequent and destructive geo-hydrological events that cause harm to people every year worldwide. We used a catalogue on 1039 landslide fatalities, occurred in Italy in the 50-year period 1970-2019, to determine the dependence of the fatalities on gender, age and circumstance of death. The updated version of the Italian landslide fatalities catalogue includes information on the exact time of the occurrence of the fatal landslide events and the circumstances of death. Possible relations between time of the day and fatalities occurrence are analysed. Males landslides fatalities occurred frequently outdoor, along roads mainly involving drivers or passengers travelling in vehicles, indicating a specific dangerous death contingence preferentially occurring in daylight. Conversely, female landslide fatalities occurred more frequently indoor. To consider the demographic and socio-cultural changes over time, we performed a temporal analysis splitting the catalogue into three overlapping subsets 30-year each. In the three time periods, we estimated the expected fatalities by gender and age, using national census data and a multinomial distribution. Such estimates were compared with the observed landslide fatalities distribution. We identified the age categories over or under represented when the observed fatalities were respectively higher or lower than the modelled expected deaths. The analysis shows that for all the periods landslide male fatalities compared to the female ones are significantly higher than those expected by census data, indicating both a diverse propensity towards the risk taking and a different degree of exposure between males and females.
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Long-term analysis of rainfall-induced landslides in Umbria, central Italy

S. L. Gariano(1), G. Verini Supplizi(2), F. Ardizzone(1), P. Salvati(1), C. Bianchi(1), R. Morbidelli(2), C. Saltalippi(2), 2021, Long-term analysis of rainfall-induced landslides in Umbria, central Italy, Natural hazards (Dordr., Online) (2021). doi_10.1007/s11069-021-04539-6,

DOI: 10.1007%2Fs11069-021-04539-6

Abstract
Analyses of historical records of landslides and climate variables are useful tools to search for ...
Analyses of historical records of landslides and climate variables are useful tools to search for correlations between damaging landslide events and their triggers. In this work, we investigate the temporal and geographical relationships between two long-term historical series of catalogued landslide occurrences and daily rainfall data in Umbria, a central Italian region, from 1928 to 2001. Moreover, we search for changes in the frequency and density of landslides, and in the characteristics of the associated rainfall events. Using a consolidated approach, partially modified, we find that the rainfall events that have produced rainfall-induced landslides in Umbria changed in space and time during observation period and between two considered sub-periods (1928-1975 and 1976-2001). In particular, we find that_ (i) the monthly distribution of landslides associated with rainfall events is quite different than that of all landslides in the regional catalogue; (ii) the spatial and temporal distribution of REL changed from the older (most events occurred in winter) to the recent period (most events occurred in autumn); (iii) the recent most rainfall events associated with landslides are characterized by a lower cumulated rainfall and a shorter duration, sign of an increased propensity of the regional territory to produce landslides over time.
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On the Prediction of Landslides and Their Consequences

Guzzetti F., 2021, On the Prediction of Landslides and Their Consequences, World Landslide Forum 5, Kyotp, 11/2021,

Abstract
The general assumptions and the most popular methods used to assess landslide hazard and for ...
The general assumptions and the most popular methods used to assess landslide hazard and for risk evaluation have not changed significantly in recent decades. Some of these assumptions have conceptual weakness, and the methods have revealed limitations. In this work, I deal with populations of landslides i.e. numerous landslides caused in an area by a single trigger (e.g. a rainstorm, an earthquake, a rapid snowmelt event), or by multiple events in a short or long period. Following an introduc- tion on what we need to predict to assess landslide hazard and risk, I introduce the strategies and the main methods currently used to detect and map landslides, to predict populations of landslides in space and time, and to anticipate the numerosity and size characteristics of the expected landslides. For landslide detection and mapping, I consider traditional methods based on the visual interpretation of aerial photographs, and modern approaches that exploit the visual, semi-automatic or automatic analysis of remotely sensed images. For landslide spatial prediction, I discuss the results of a global review of statistical, classification-based methods for landslide susceptibility assessment. For the temporal prediction, leveraging on a global analysis of geographical landslide forecasting and early warning systems, I discuss short term forecast capabilities and their limitations. Next, I discuss long term landslide projections considering the impact of climate variations on landslide projections. For landslide numerosity and size characteristics, I discuss existing statistics of landslide area and volume obtained from large populations of event-triggered landslides. This is followed by an analysis of the landslide consequences, with emphasis on a spatial-temporal model of societal landslide risk in Italy. I end offering recommendations on what I think we should do to make significant progress in our collective ability to predict the hazard posed by populations of landslides, and to mitigate their risk.
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Preface to the Special Issue “Rainfall Thresholds and Other Approaches for Landslide Prediction and Early Warning”

Samuele Segoni, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Ascanio Rosi, 2021, Preface to the Special Issue “Rainfall Thresholds and Other Approaches for Landslide Prediction and Early Warning”, Water (Basel) 13 (2021). doi_10.3390/w13030323,

DOI: 10.3390%2Fw13030323

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Altimetry for the future_ Building on 25 years of progress

Abdalla, Saleh; Abdeh Kolahchi, Abdolnabi; Adusumilli, Susheel; Aich Bhowmick, Suchandra; Alou-Font, Eva; Amarouche, Laiba; Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Antich, Helena; Aouf, Lotfi; Arbic, Brian; Armitage, Thomas; Arnault, Sabine; Artana, Camila; Aulicino, Giuseppe; Ayoub, Nadia; Badulin, Sergei; Baker, Steven; Banks, Chris; Bao, Lifeng; Barbetta, Silvia; Barceló-Llull, Bàrbara; Barlier, François; Basu, Sujit; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter; Becker, Matthias; Beckley, Brian; Bellefond, Nicole; Belonenko, Tatyana; Benkiran, Mounir; Benkouider, Touati; Bennartz, Ralf; Benveniste, Jérôme; Bercher, Nicolas; Berge-Nguyen, Muriel; Bettencourt, Joao; Blarel, Fabien; Blazquez, Alejandro; Blumstein, Denis; Bonnefond, Pascal; Borde, Franck; Bouffard, Jérôme; Boy, François; Boy, Jean Paul; Brachet, Cédric; Brasseur, Pierre; Braun, Alexander; Brocca, Luca; Brockley, David; Brodeau, Laurent; Brown, Shannon; Bruinsma, Sean; Bulczak, Anna; Buzzard, Sammie; Cahill, Madeleine; Calmant, Stéphane; Calzas, Michel; Camici, Stefania; Cancet, Mathilde; Capdeville, Hugues; Carabajal, Claudia Cristina; Carrere, Loren; Cazenave, Anny; Chassignet, Eric P.; Chauhan, Prakash; Cherchali, Selma; Chereskin, Teresa; Cheymol, Cecile; Ciani, Daniele; Cipollini, Paolo; Cirillo, Francesca; Cosme, Emmanuel; Coss, Steve; Cotroneo, Yuri; Cotton, David; Couhert, Alexandre; Coutin-Faye, Sophie; Crétaux, Jean François; Cyr, Frederic; d'Ovidio, Francesco; Darrozes, José; David, Cedric; Dayoub, Nadim; De Staerke, Danielle; Deng, Xiaoli; Desai, Shailen; Desjonqueres, Jean Damien; Dettmering, Denise; Di Bella, Alessandro; Díaz-Barroso, Lara; Dibarboure, Gerald; Dieng, Habib Boubacar; Dinardo, Salvatore; Dobslaw, Henryk; Dodet, Guillaume; Doglioli, Andrea; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Donahue, David; Dong, Shenfu; Donlon, Craig; Dorandeu, Joël, 2021, Altimetry for the future_ Building on 25 years of progress, Advances in space research (2021). doi_10.1016/j.asr.2021.01.022,

DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.asr.2021.01.022

Abstract
In 2018 we celebrated 25 years of development of radar altimetry, and the progress achieved ...
In 2018 we celebrated 25 years of development of radar altimetry, and the progress achieved by this methodology in the fields of global and coastal oceanography, hydrology, geodesy and cryospheric sciences. Many symbolic major events have celebrated these developments, e.g., in Venice, Italy, the 15th (2006) and 20th (2012) years of progress and more recently, in 2018, in Ponta Delgada, Portugal, 25 Years of Progress in Radar Altimetry. On this latter occasion it was decided to collect contributions of scientists, engineers and managers involved in the worldwide altimetry community to depict the state of altimetry and propose recommendations for the altimetry of the future. This paper summarizes contributions and recommendations that were collected and provides guidance for future mission design, research activities, and sustainable operational radar altimetry data exploitation. Recommendations provided are fundamental for optimizing further scientific and operational advances of oceanographic observations by altimetry, including requirements for spatial and temporal resolution of altimetric measurements, their accuracy and continuity. There are also new challenges and new openings mentioned in the paper that are particularly crucial for observations at higher latitudes, for coastal oceanography, for cryospheric studies and for hydrology. The paper starts with a general introduction followed by a section on Earth System Science including Ocean Dynamics, Sea Level, the Coastal Ocean, Hydrology, the Cryosphere and Polar Oceans and the "Green" Ocean, extending the frontier from biogeochemistry to marine ecology. Applications are described in a subsequent section, which covers Operational Oceanography, Weather, Hurricane Wave and Wind Forecasting, Climate projection. Instruments' development and satellite missions' evolutions are described in a fourth section. A fifth section covers the key observations that altimeters provide and their potential complements, from other Earth observation measurements to in situ data. Section 6 identifies the data and methods and provides some accuracy and resolution requirements for the wet tropospheric correction, the orbit and other geodetic requirements, the Mean Sea Surface, Geoid and Mean Dynamic Topography, Calibration and Validation, data accuracy, data access and handling (including the DUACS system). Section 7 brings a transversal view on scales, integration, artificial intelligence, and capacity building (education and training). Section 8 reviews the programmatic issues followed by a conclusion.
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Modeling the response of soil moisture to climate variability in the Mediterranean region

Mimeau, Louise; Tramblay, Yves; Brocca, Luca; Massari, Christian; Camici, Stefania; Finaud-Guyot, Pascal, 2021, Modeling the response of soil moisture to climate variability in the Mediterranean region, Hydrology and earth system sciences 25 (2021): 653–669. doi_10.5194/hess-25-653-2021,

DOI: 10.5194%2Fhess-25-653-2021

Abstract
Future climate scenarios for the Mediterranean region indicate a possible decrease in annual precipitation associated ...
Future climate scenarios for the Mediterranean region indicate a possible decrease in annual precipitation associated with an intensification of extreme rainfall events in the coming years. A major challenge in this region is to evaluate the impacts of changing precipitation patterns on extreme hydrological events such as droughts and floods. For this, it is important to understand the impact of climate change on soil moisture since it is a proxy for agricultural droughts, and the antecedent soil moisture condition plays a key role on runoff generation. This study focuses on 10 sites, located in southern France, with available soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation observations for a 10-year time period. Soil moisture is simulated at each site at the hourly time step using a model of soil water content. The sensitivity of the simulated soil moisture to different changes in precipitation and temperature is evaluated by simulating the soil moisture response to temperature and precipitation scenarios generated using a delta change method for temperature and a stochastic model (the Neyman-Scott rectangular pulse model) for precipitation. Results show that soil moisture is more impacted by changes in precipitation intermittence than precipitation intensity and temperature. Overall, increased temperature and precipitation intensity associated with more intermittent precipitation leads to decreased soil moisture and an increase in the annual number of days with dry soil moisture conditions. In particular, a temperature increase of C4 C combined with a decrease of annual rainfall between 10% and 20 %, corresponding to the current available climate scenarios for the Mediterranean, lead to a lengthening of the drought period from June to October with an average of C28 d of soil moisture drought per year.
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Evaluation of satellite

Taghizadeh, Ehsan; Ahmadi-Givi, Farhang; Brocca, Luca; Sharifi, Ehsan, 2021, Evaluation of satellite, International journal of remote sensing (Print) 42 (2021): 3474–3497. doi_10.1080/01431161.2021.1875508,

DOI: 10.1080%2F01431161.2021.1875508

Abstract
This study aims to evaluate the satellite- and model-based precipitation products against a relatively dense ...
This study aims to evaluate the satellite- and model-based precipitation products against a relatively dense station network of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) from January 2015 to June 2018 at daily timescale over Iran. The evaluations are carried out based on continuous and categorical statistical metrics. First, we employed daily satellite soil moisture (SM) observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) for estimating rainfall through the use of the relatively new SM2RAIN approach (SM2R-AMSR2). Next, we validated rainfall estimations from satellite/reanalysis products including version 05 daily Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) Early (IMERG-DE), Late (IMERG-DL), and Final Daily (IMERG-DF) Runs and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' ReAnalysis Interim (ERA-Interim), ECMWF ReAnalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) and SM2R-AMSR2. Based on the probability density function (PDF), all satellite and model products capture more (less) precipitation events than the reference data set for precipitation under (upper) 5.0 mm day threshold. Regarding the mean absolute error (MAE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE) quantities, the ERA5 product has the lowest error relative to other products. Also, the threat score (TS) indicates that this product has the highest accuracy. ERA-Interim and IMERG-DF had roughly similar performances. The results reveal the overall superiority of ERA5 data over other products as it has the highest correlation with observation and the best discrimination between occurrence and non-occurrence of the precipitation events. Also, the results of spatial correlations show that ERAs have a higher agreement with in situ observation when compare to satellite products, over the north to northwest of Iran, where rain is formed mainly by synoptic-scale systems.
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A simple machine learning approach to model real-time streamflow using satellite inputs_ Demonstration in a data scarce catchment

Kumar, Ashish; Ramsankaran, R. A.A.J.; Brocca, Luca; Muñoz-Arriola, Francisco, 2021, A simple machine learning approach to model real-time streamflow using satellite inputs_ Demonstration in a data scarce catchment, Journal of hydrology (Amst.) 595 (2021). doi_10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126046,

DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.jhydrol.2021.126046

Abstract
Real-time streamflow modeling is a challenging endeavor in regions where real-time ground-based hydro-meteorological observations are ...
Real-time streamflow modeling is a challenging endeavor in regions where real-time ground-based hydro-meteorological observations are scarce. Nevertheless, with the emergence of satellite remote sensing, some of the essential hydro-meteorological datasets such as rainfall and soil moisture are available in near real-time, which can circumvent the problem. In such scenario, machine learning (ML) approaches can be used to model streamflow even with limited real-time data. In view of this, the effectiveness of integrating satellite-based near real-time rainfall, i.e., Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission based (3B42RT V7), and Advance Scatterometer (ASCAT) based soil moisture observations through Support Vector Machine (SVM) for simulating streamflow in a poorly gauged catchment in India has been investigated. Results show that 3B42RT forced streamflow performed poorly compared to streamflow simulated using the observed gridded rainfall. This inferior performance is mainly attributed to errors in 3B42RT rainfall product. Hence, a recently developed SVM based error reduction model using ASCAT soil moisture data is used to correct 3B42RT. The obtained corrected satellite rainfall outperformed 3B42RT in streamflow simulations but still it is affected by notable errors. To further improve the streamflow estimates, ASCAT soil moisture is used as a predictor variable along with 3B42RT and the corrected satellite rainfall separately into SVM based streamflow modelling. Results indicate that this integration considerably improves the streamflow estimates with respect to the use of 3B42RT and corrected satellite rainfall individually. This is attributed to the crucial role of antecedent soil moisture for streamflow generation. Among all the tested scenarios, streamflow derived by the integration of soil moisture and corrected satellite rainfall showed the highest performance. Hence, it can be said that the proposed approach has considerable potential to model real time streamflow in the chosen poorly gauged catchment and possibly beyond. However, the approach needs detailed evaluation before applying in other such catchments.
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Detecting and mapping irrigated areas in a Mediterranean environment by using remote sensing soil moisture and a land surface model

Dari, Jacopo; Quintana-Seguí, Pere; Escorihuela, María José; Stefan, Vivien; Brocca, Luca; Morbidelli, Renato, 2021, Detecting and mapping irrigated areas in a Mediterranean environment by using remote sensing soil moisture and a land surface model, Journal of hydrology (Amst.) 596 (2021). doi_10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126129,

DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.jhydrol.2021.126129

Abstract
Although irrigation practices affect food production and water resource management, with ever more impacting effects ...
Although irrigation practices affect food production and water resource management, with ever more impacting effects under climate change and population increasing scenarios, detailed knowledge of irrigation is still lacking. In fact, explicit information on the spatial occurrence of irrigation and on the amounts of water used for this purpose is often not available, thus making irrigation the missing variable to comprehensively understand the hydrological cycle dynamics over agricultural areas. Nevertheless, remote sensing techniques can be used to delimit the irrigation extent. In this study, the capability of five remotely sensed soil moisture products to detect the irrigation signal over an area intensely equipped for irrigation in the North East of Spain is investigated; moreover, a method to map the actually irrigated areas based on the K-means clustering algorithm is proposed. The remote sensing soil moisture data sets used in this study are SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) at 1 km, SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) at 1 km and 9 km, Sentinel-1 at 1 km, and ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer) at 12.5 km. The 1 km resolution versions of SMOS and SMAP are obtained by downscaling coarser SMOS and SMAP data through the DISPATCH (DISaggregation based on Physical And Theoretical scale CHange) algorithm. The analyses are supported by an additional data set of soil moisture at 1 km resolution simulated by the SURFEX-ISBA (SURFace EXternalisée - Interaction Sol Biosphère Atmosphère) land surface model. Among all the considered data sets, the L-band passive microwave downscaled products show the best performances in detecting the irrigation signal over the pilot area, especially SMAP at 1 km. The proposed maps of irrigated areas derived by exploiting soil moisture from SMAP at 1 km data set agree well (up to 78%) with the ground truth derived irrigated areas. Furthermore, the method is able to well distinguish the actually irrigated areas from rainfed agricultural areas, thus representing a useful tool to obtain reliable spatial information about the areas where irrigation actually occurs.
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Spatiotemporal drought monitoring using bottom-up precipitation dataset (SM2RAIN-ASCAT) over different regions of Iran

Koohi, Sakine; Azizian, Asghar; Brocca, Luca, 2021, Spatiotemporal drought monitoring using bottom-up precipitation dataset (SM2RAIN-ASCAT) over different regions of Iran, Science of the total environment 779 (2021). doi_10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146535,

DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.scitotenv.2021.146535

Abstract
Drought is a natural phenomenon that can significantly impacts on water resources studies, agricultural and ...
Drought is a natural phenomenon that can significantly impacts on water resources studies, agricultural and environmental societies around the world, hence, accurate spatio-temporal monitoring of drought is very important. In this research, a comparative analysis of a newly developed precipitation dataset, SM2RAIN-ASCAT (which is based on bottom-up approach), with 40 ground-measured Iranian Meteorological Organization (IMO) precipitation data are performed to estimate the precipitation and monitor the drought events over diverse climate regions of Iran. The SPI index, as a widely used drought index, at the temporal resolution ranging from one month to one year is used to this aim, and the outputs are analyzed based on the statistical and categorical metrics. Results indicated that the highest correlation coefficient (CC) and lowest root mean square error (RMSE) between SM2RAIN-ASCAT and in situ observations are found at 10-day and monthly time scales. Analyzing both datasets using FAR and POD indices in the mid and long-term time scales indicated that the SM2RAIN-ASCAT has a good performance in detecting rainy days. This product overestimate the precipitation values in extra-arid regions, while in humid and per-humid climate areas it tends to underestimation. Moreover, assessing the reliability of this product for drought monitoring showed that the SPI at 1, 3 and 6 month time scales are in good agreement with ground-based observations over different climate regions of Iran. At these temporal resolutions, the CC value between SPIs calculated based on in situ observations and SM2RAIN-ASCAT is higher than 0.7 in more than 75% of the meteorological stations. The efficiency of SM2RAIN-ASCAT in detecting drought periods in extra-arid and arid zones is relatively better than that of in humid and per-humid climates. In addition, the performance of this product for capturing wet periods in extra-arid to semi-arid regions is better than that of in Mediterranean and humid zones. Overall, the outcomes of this study demonstrated that SM2RAIN-ASCAT, despite poor performance in estimating precipitation in some regions, can be considered as a complementary to ground-gauge observations or an appropriate alternative dataset for drought analysis, especially in arid and semi-arid regions which include most parts of the world.
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Regional Approaches in Forecasting Rainfall-Induced Landslides

Maria Teresa Brunetti, Massimo Melillo, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Luca Ciabatta, Luca Brocca, Silvia Peruccacci, 2021, Regional Approaches in Forecasting Rainfall-Induced Landslides, Monitoring and Early Warning, pp. 251–255, 2021,

Abstract
Hydrogeological hazards now exacerbated by the ongoing climate change pose serious challenges for the safety of the ...
Hydrogeological hazards now exacerbated by the ongoing climate change pose serious challenges for the safety of the population worldwide. Among the others, the landslide risk can be mitigated by setting up efficient and reliable early warning systems. To date, rainfall thresholds are one of the most used tools to forecast the possible occurrence of rainfall-induced failures in large regions. In Italy a dense rain gauge network with hourly or sub-hourly temporal resolution is available. However, in some developing countries, where ground measurements are still absent or are available at coarser (daily) temporal resolution, satellite-based rainfall estimates could be a vital alternative. For this purpose, the reliability of rainfall thresholds defined using both satellite (SB) and ground-based (GB) data and with hourly or daily temporal resolution is assessed in a study area comprising the Abruzzo, Marche and Umbria regions (AMU), central Italy. The comparison between the performance of the different products allows to test their capability in eventually can GB rainfall measurements are gathered at hourly time steps (OBS-H) from a national network and aggregated on a daily scale (OBS-D); SB rainfall estimates are retrieved from the Climate Prediction Center Morphing Technique (CMORPH, hourly resolution), and from the SM2RASC product, based on the application of SM2RAIN algorithm to ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer) soil moisture product (daily resolution). Results show that thresholds defined with GB rainfall data perform better than those obtained using SB estimates regardless of the temporal resolution. CMORPH and SM2RASC thresholds are still able to predict landslide occurrence although with a high number of false predictions.
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Mapping the global threat of land subsidence

Gerardo Herrera-García (1-2-3), Pablo Ezquerro (1-4), Roberto Tomás (2-5), Marta Béjar-Pizarro (1), Juan López-Vinielles (1-6), Mauro Rossi (7), Rosa M. Mateos (1-3), Dora Carreón-Freyre (2-8), John Lambert (2-9), Pietro Teatini (2-10), Enrique Cabral-Cano (2-11), Gilles Erkens (2-12-13), Devin Galloway (14-2), Wei-Chia Hung (2-15), Najeebullah Kakar (2-16), Michelle Sneed (17-2), Luigi Tosi (2-18), Hanmei Wang (2-19), Shujun Ye (2-20), 2021, Mapping the global threat of land subsidence, Science (New York, N.Y.) 371 (2021): 34–36. doi_10.1126/science.abb8549,

DOI: 10.1126%2Fscience.abb8549

Abstract
Subsidence, the lowering of Earth's land surface, is a potentially destructive hazard that can be ...
Subsidence, the lowering of Earth's land surface, is a potentially destructive hazard that can be caused by a wide range of natural or anthropogenic triggers but mainly results from solid or fluid mobilization underground. Subsidence due to groundwater depletion (1) is a slow and gradual process that develops on large time scales (months to years), producing progressive loss of land elevation (centimeters to decimeters per year) typically over very large areas (tens to thousands of square kilometers) and variably affects urban and agricultural areas worldwide. Subsidence permanently reduces aquifer-system storage capacity, causes earth fissures, damages buildings and civil infrastructure, and increases flood susceptibility and risk. During the next decades, global population and economic growth will continue to increase groundwater demand and accompanying groundwater depletion (2) and, when exacerbated by droughts (3), will probably increase land subsidence occurrence and related damages or impacts. To raise awareness and inform decision-making, we evaluate potential global subsidence due to groundwater depletion, a key first step toward formulating effective land-subsidence policies that are lacking in most countries worldwide.
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Development of a data-driven model for spatial and temporal shallow landslide probability of occurrence at catchment scale

Bordoni, M.; Vivaldi, V.; Lucchelli, L.; Ciabatta, L.; Brocca, L.; Galve, J. P.; Meisina, C., 2021, Development of a data-driven model for spatial and temporal shallow landslide probability of occurrence at catchment scale, Landslides (Berl., Print) (2021). doi_10.1007/s10346-020-01592-3,

DOI: 10.1007%2Fs10346-020-01592-3

Abstract
A combined method was developed to forecast the spatial and the temporal probability of occurrence ...
A combined method was developed to forecast the spatial and the temporal probability of occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides over large areas. The method also allowed to estimate the dynamic change of this probability during a rainfall event. The model, developed through a data-driven approach basing on Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines technique, was based on a joint probability between the spatial probability of occurrence (susceptibility) and the temporal one. The former was estimated on the basis of geological, geomorphological, and hydrological predictors. The latter was assessed considering short-term cumulative rainfall, antecedent rainfall, soil hydrological conditions, expressed as soil saturation degree, and bedrock geology. The predictive capability of the methodology was tested for past triggering events of shallow landslides occurred in representative catchments of Oltrepò Pavese, in northern Italian Apennines. The method provided excellently to outstanding performance for both the really unstable hillslopes (area under ROC curve until 0.92, true positives until 98.8%, true negatives higher than 80%) and the identification of the triggering time (area under ROC curve of 0.98, true positives of 96.2%, true negatives of 94.6%). The developed methodology allowed us to obtain feasible results using satellite-based rainfall products and data acquired by field rain gauges. Advantages and weak points of the method, in comparison also with traditional approaches for the forecast of shallow landslides, were also provided.
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A roadmap for high-resolution satellite soil moisture applications – confronting product characteristics with user requirements

Peng, Jian; Albergel, Clement; Balenzano, Anna; Brocca, Luca; Cartus, Oliver; Cosh, Michael H.; Crow, Wade T.; Dabrowska-Zielinska, Katarzyna; Dadson, Simon; Davidson, Malcolm W.J.; de Rosnay, Patricia; Dorigo, Wouter; Gruber, Alexander; Hagemann, Stefan; Hirschi, Martin; Kerr, Yann H.; Lovergine, Francesco; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Marzahn, Philip; Mattia, Francesco; Musial, Jan Pawel; Preuschmann, Swantje; Reichle, Rolf H.; Satalino, Giuseppe; Silgram, Martyn; van Bodegom, Peter M.; Verhoest, Niko E.C.; Wagner, Wolfgang; Walker, Jeffrey P.; Wegmüller, Urs; Loew, Alexander, 2021, A roadmap for high-resolution satellite soil moisture applications – confronting product characteristics with user requirements, Remote sensing of environment (2021). doi_10.1016/j.rse.2020.112162,

DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.rse.2020.112162

Abstract
Soil moisture observations are of broad scientific interest and practical value for a wide range ...
Soil moisture observations are of broad scientific interest and practical value for a wide range of applications. The scientific community has made significant progress in estimating soil moisture from satellite-based Earth observation data, particularly in operationalizing coarse-resolution (25-50 km) soil moisture products. This review summarizes existing applications of satellite-derived soil moisture products and identifies gaps between the characteristics of currently available soil moisture products and the application requirements from various disciplines. We discuss the efforts devoted to the generation of high-resolution soil moisture products from satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data such as Sentinel-1 C-band backscatter observations and/or through downscaling of existing coarse-resolution microwave soil moisture products. Open issues and future opportunities of satellite-derived soil moisture are discussed, providing guidance for further development of operational soil moisture products and bridging the gap between the soil moisture user and supplier communities.
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Trends in flow intermittence for European rivers

Yves Tramblay , Agnieszka Rutkowska , Eric Sauquet , Catherine Sefton , Gregor Laaha , Marzena Osuch , Teresa Albuquerque , Maria Helena Alves , Kazimierz Banasik , Aurelien Beaufort , Luca Brocca , Stefania Camici , Zoltán Csabai , Hamouda Dakhlaoui , Anna Maria DeGirolamo , Gerald Dörflinger , Francesc Gallart , Tobias Gauster , Lahoucine Hanich , Silvia Kohnová , Luis Mediero , Ninov Plamen , Simon Parry , Pere Quintana-Seguí , Ourania Tzoraki & Thibault Datry, 2021, Trends in flow intermittence for European rivers, Hydrological sciences journal (Online) (2021). doi_10.1080/02626667.2020.1849708,

DOI: 10.1080%2F02626667.2020.1849708

Abstract
Intermittent rivers are prevalent in many countries across Europe, but little is known about the temporal ...
Intermittent rivers are prevalent in many countries across Europe, but little is known about the temporal evolution of intermittence and its relationship with climate variability. Trend analysis of the annual and seasonal number of zero-flow days, the maximum duration of dry spells and the mean date of the zero-flow events, is performed on a database of 452 rivers with varying degrees of intermittence between 1970 and 2010. The relationships between flow intermittence and climate are investigated using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and climate indices describing large-scale atmospheric circulation. The results indicate a strong spatial variability of the seasonal patterns of intermittence and the annual and seasonal number of zero-flow days, highlighting the controls exerted by local catchment properties. Most of the detected trends indicate an increasing number of zero-flow days, which also tend to occur earlier in the year, particularly in southern Europe. The SPEI is found to be strongly related to the annual and seasonal zero-flow day occurrence in more than half of the stations for different accumulation times between 12 and 24 months. Conversely, there is a weaker dependence of river intermittence with large-scale circulation indices. Overall, these results suggest increased water stress in intermittent rivers that may affect their biota and biochemistry and also reduce available water resources.
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Exposure to landslides in rural areas in Central Italy

M. Santangelo(a), I. Marchesini(a), F. Bucci(a), M. Cardinali(a), M. Cavalli(b), S. Crema(b), L. Marchi(b), M. Alvioli(a), F. Guzzetti(a), 2021, Exposure to landslides in rural areas in Central Italy, 2021,

Abstract
The Total Susceptibility Index (TSI) gives the overall (total) propensity of pixels to be affected ...
The Total Susceptibility Index (TSI) gives the overall (total) propensity of pixels to be affected by shallow (SL) or deep-seated (DL) landslides, debris flows (DF), and rockfalls (RF), in any possible combination. For each TSI value, the corresponding values of the Specific Susceptibility Index (SSI), a four-digits positional index, is given (Table 1). By reading the SSI it is possible to understand the landslide types expected within a given pixel because it is made up by four digits, each expressing the susceptibility to the single landslide types considered. Each of the four digits is referred to as Susceptibility Index (SI), and expresses, for each pixel, the propensity to be affected by a landslide of that specific type. For all the landslide types except debris flows, SI values give the susceptibility models prediction in terms of presence (1) or absence (0) of landslides. For debris flows, the SI has four classes, depending on the combined model output. Low values show low susceptibility, and 0 show no susceptibility. For debris flows, the Susceptibility Index is equal to 4 also where DF deposits where mapped in the landslide inventory map (Map A). The Total Susceptibility is expressed by the TSI in five classes, namely Negligible, Low, Medium, High and Very High. The five classes of TSI also correspond to the five classes of exposure to landslides. Additionally to the local susceptibility conditions and exposure, for each pixel, also the morphological suitability for post-seismic rebuilding was evaluated.
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Potentials and limitations of Sentinel-3 for river discharge assessment

Tarpanelli A.; Camici S.; Nielsen K.; Brocca L.; Moramarco T.; Benveniste J., 2021, Potentials and limitations of Sentinel-3 for river discharge assessment, Advances in space research (2021). doi_10.1016/j.asr.2019.08.005,

DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.asr.2019.08.005

Abstract
The monitoring of rivers is not the primary objective of the Sentinel-3 mission. The first ...
The monitoring of rivers is not the primary objective of the Sentinel-3 mission. The first satellite of the constellation was launched in February 2016 and so far no study has investigated the joint use of altimeter, near-infrared and thermal sensors for discharge estimation. Nevertheless, similar sensors onboard other platforms have showed their ability to estimate river discharge also in scarcely gauged areas. The advantage of altimetry lies in the observation of water surface elevation, which can be proficiently used in approaches based on rating curve, empirical formulae or hydraulic modeling. Even though their use is limited, near-infrared sensors are successfully used to detect the variability of river discharge thanks to their high capacity to discriminate water from land. Thermal sensors are nearly completely unused, but the unique study that uses the difference in temperature of the river water between day and night for the estimation of water level, encourages its use for river discharge assessment as well. To improve the estimation of river discharge and foster studies that are aimed at monitoring ungauged rivers, the combination of the sensors is considered a viable path. The aim of this manuscript is to review these studies to show the limitations and the potentials of each sensor onboard the Sentinel-3 satellite and to investigate the added value of using these three sensors co-located on the same platform for river discharge monitoring.
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SANF-RFI Manuale

Maria Teresa Brunetti, Ivan Marchesini, Silvia Peruccacci, Mauro Rossi, 2020, SANF-RFI Manuale, 2020,

Abstract
Il presente documento è il Manuale d'uso del Sistema di Allertamento Nazionale per la previsione ...
Il presente documento è il Manuale d'uso del Sistema di Allertamento Nazionale per la previsione del possibile innesco di fenomeni Franosi indotti da piogge lungo la rete ferroviaria di RFI (SANF-RFI) realizzato dall'Istituto di Ricerca per la Protezione Idrogeologica (IRPI) del Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), come Centro di Competenza (CC) del Dipartimento di Protezione Civile (DCP). SANF-RFI è basato sul confronto di misure, stime e previsioni della precipitazione, e soglie pluviometriche per la previsione dell'innesco di fenomeni franosi.
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The future of landslides’ past–a framework for assessing consecutive landsliding systems

Temme A.; Guzzetti F.; Samia J.; Mirus B.B., 2020, The future of landslides’ past–a framework for assessing consecutive landsliding systems, Landslides (Berl., Print) 17 (2020): 1519–1528. doi_10.1007/s10346-020-01405-7,

DOI: 10.1007%2Fs10346-020-01405-7

Abstract
Landslides often happen where they have already occurred in the past. The potential of landslides ...
Landslides often happen where they have already occurred in the past. The potential of landslides to reduce or enhance conditions for further landsliding has long been recognized and has often been reported, but the mechanisms and spatial and temporal scales of these processes have previously received little specific attention. Despite a preponderance of qualitative and anecdotal evidence, analysis has been limited. As a result, there is little consensus on the meaning of terms such as landslide repetition, recurrence, and reactivation. This source of confusion is evident when such terms are also used to describe systems where landsliding is prevalent but unrelated to landslide history. Recent findings, partly based on a rare multi-temporal landslide inventory for an area in Italy, show that the impacts of earlier landslides affect a substantial fraction of landslides, that landslides following earlier landslides differ from those that do not, and that accounting for the effect of previous landslides can improve susceptibility assessments. These findings await confirmation in other landslide-prone landscapes but show that consecutive landsliding deserves more attention, which requires consistent terminology. No such terminology is presently available, and we therefore propose it in this manuscript. We use the term "uncorrelated landsliding" to describe situations where landslides are common, but where a correlation with environmental variables such as terrain steepness is not implied. We propose "correlated landsliding" to describe situations where landslides are common and correlations with environmental variables exist, and "path-dependent landsliding" to describe situations where causal relations exist between consecutive landslides, for instance, when landslides occur at the scarp of previous landslides. These are situations where past landslides impact future landslides. Within the path-dependent category, we distinguish three subcategories based on the spatial distance between earlier and later landslides_ "reactivation" or "continuation" if essentially the same material recommences or continues to slide, "local activation" if an earlier slide causes changes in a local hillslope that cause a later slide, and "remote activation" if an earlier slide causes changes elsewhere in the landscape that cause a later landslide. We use this proposed set of terms to outline some prominent knowledge gaps and potential research questions.
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Relazione aggiornamento soglie pluviometriche – WP3 – Valutazione integrata di dissesti geo-idrologici nel territorio della regione Puglia, modelli interpretativi dei fenomeni e definizione di soglie di pioggia per il possibile innesco di frane superficiali – P.O.R. PUGLIA 2014 – 2020

Silvia Peruccacci, Massimo Melillo, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Maria Teresa Brunetti, Carmela Vennari, 2020, Relazione aggiornamento soglie pluviometriche – WP3 – Valutazione integrata di dissesti geo-idrologici nel territorio della regione Puglia, modelli interpretativi dei fenomeni e definizione di soglie di pioggia per il possibile innesco di frane superficiali – P.O.R. PUGLIA 2014 – 2020, D03-03, 2020,

Abstract
Il documento contiene l'aggiornamento delle soglie di pioggia per il possibile innesco di frane nella ...
Il documento contiene l'aggiornamento delle soglie di pioggia per il possibile innesco di frane nella regione Puglia. In particolare, il documento è suddiviso in 6 capitoli. Il Capitolo 1 contiene un'introduzione ai contenuti del documento. Nel Capitolo 2 sono riportate le soglie pluviometriche definite a novembre 2018 [DR-002]. A seguito di un'analisi approfondita, le soglie sono state ricalcolate eliminando 12 condizioni pluviometriche responsabili dell'innesco di frane in quanto duplicate nel catalogo o relative a frane non verificatesi come primo innesco. Nel Capitolo 3 è descritto e analizzato il nuovo catalogo contenente le informazioni spaziali e temporali sui fenomeni franosi occorsi in Puglia. Il catalogo è stato integrato con le informazioni su frane pluvio-indotte occorse nelle regioni limitrofe (Molise, Campania e Basilicata) entro una distanza di 15 km dal confine del territorio pugliese. Il Capitolo 4 riporta e analizza le condizioni pluviometriche utilizzate per l'aggiornamento delle soglie frequentiste in Puglia. Il Capitolo 5 mostra le nuove soglie regionali frequentiste di tipo Cumulata-Durata (CD) corrispondenti alle percentuali di non superamento del 5% con le relative incertezze e il confronto con la soglia regionale preliminare. Nello stesso capitolo viene mostrato il confronto tra la nuova soglia frequentista al 5% per la regione Puglia e le soglie precedentemente definite dal CC CNR-IRPI per altre regioni e per l'intero territorio nazionale. Il Capitolo 6 contiene l'elenco della bibliografia di riferimento.
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Sistema di Allertamento SANF-RFI – aggiornamento P-02-2, basato su P-06-2

Ivan Marchesini, Mauro Rossi, Maria Elena Martinotti, Silvia Peruccacci, 2020, Sistema di Allertamento SANF-RFI – aggiornamento P-02-2, basato su P-06-2, P-03-3, 2020,

Abstract
Il documento, diviso in 9 sezioni, contiene una descrizione del sistema SANF-RFI versione 4.0 per ...
Il documento, diviso in 9 sezioni, contiene una descrizione del sistema SANF-RFI versione 4.0 per la previsione dei dissesti lungo l'infrastruttura RFI. In particolare, nelle prime 6 sezioni sono riportate le descrizioni tecniche e logico-funzionali relative a_ (i) base dati SANF-RFI; (ii) procedura di importazione e aggiornamento dei dati anagrafici dalla rete fiduciaria del DPC; (iii) procedura di importazione di dati misurati e calcolo delle previsioni della possibile occorrenza di frana; (iv) procedura di importazione dei dati di previsione di pioggia all'interno di SANF-RFI; (v) procedura di interpolazione dei dati generati da SANF-RFI a livello di pluviometro; (vi)algoritmi di calcolo delle probabilità di innesco di frane pluvio-indotte. Nelle successive 2 sezioni, sono invece descritte_ le modalità di calcolo dell'esposizione al dissesto della rete ferroviaria e la procedura di calcolo delle probabilità di innesco di frane lungo la rete ferroviaria. Nell'ultima sezione sono descritte le interfacce di consultazione/analisi degli output e delle elaborazioni del sistema. La nuova applicazione web, giunta alla versione 4.0, si compone di una interfaccia di backend che consente di configurare e adeguare le interfacce di consultazione (Monitoraggio e Analisi) secondo le preferenze dell'utente.
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Rapporto sulla validazione di SANF-RFI basato su P-04-1 e P-05-1

Maria Teresa Brunetti, Silvia Peruccacci, Maria Elena Martinotti, Mauro Rossi, Ivan Marchesini, Massimo Melillo, Stefano Luigi Gariano, 2020, Rapporto sulla validazione di SANF-RFI basato su P-04-1 e P-05-1, P-07-2, 2020,

Abstract
Il rapporto rappresenta la seconda valutazione delle prestazioni di SANF-RFI per la previsione di frane ...
Il rapporto rappresenta la seconda valutazione delle prestazioni di SANF-RFI per la previsione di frane pluvio-indotte lungo le linee ferroviarie di RFI da giugno a novembre 2019. Tale attività ha incluso l'uso di informazioni sull'occorrenza di frane pluvio-indotte in prossimità o in corrispondenza dell'infrastruttura ferroviaria RFI, e l'implementazione di procedure per il confronto delle previsioni di SANF-RFI con l'occorrenza di frane nei giorni successivi, nel periodo di validità delle previsioni stesse.
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Formazione Personale RFI – 2020

Silvia Peruccacci, Massimiliano Alvioli, Maria Teresa Brunetti, Ivan Marchesini, Mauro Rossi, 2020, Formazione Personale RFI – 2020, 2020,

Abstract
Le attività di formazione hanno come obiettivo quello di illustrare il Sistema di Allertamento Nazionale ...
Le attività di formazione hanno come obiettivo quello di illustrare il Sistema di Allertamento Nazionale per la previsione del possibile innesco di fenomeni Franosi indotti da piogge lungo la rete ferroviaria di RFI (SANF-RFI) versione 4.0 al personale di Rete Ferroviaria Italiana S.p.A. (RFI). Si ritiene infatti che SANF-RFI necessiti, per essere trasferito adeguatamente a RFI, di una fase di formazione finalizzata a un suo ottimale utilizzo. In particolare, la formazione mira a_ (i) illustrare i criteri e le metodologie utilizzate per la definizione delle differenti soglie per la previsione dei fenomeni franosi; (ii) illustrare le funzionalità, le caratteristiche ed i limiti di SANF-RFI v. 4.0; e (iii) illustrare le procedure per la verifica delle previsioni e la valutazione delle performance di SANF-RFI.
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Floods in the Mediterranean area_ The role of soil moisture and precipitation

Massari, C. 1, Camici 1, S., Ciabatta 1, L., Penna 2, D., Marra, A. C. 3, Panegrossi, G.3, 2020, Floods in the Mediterranean area_ The role of soil moisture and precipitation, Water Resources in the Mediterranean Region, edited by Zribi Mahrez, Brocca Luca , Tramblay Yves, Molle Froncois, pp. 191–218. Amsterdam_ ELSEVIER SCIENCE PUBLISHER B.V., 2020,

Abstract
In Mediterranean area (MA), floods are, after droughts, the most dangerous meteorological hazard causing severe ...
In Mediterranean area (MA), floods are, after droughts, the most dangerous meteorological hazard causing severe damages of manmade infrastructures, produce large loss of lives, and adversely affect the opportunities for socio-economic development of MA countries. MA is characterized by a relatively high number of flash floods (FFs) and floods occurring in small catchments normally triggered by deep convective systems associated with intense precipitation with a limited areal extent and high initial wetness conditions. For these reasons, the understating of the role of rainfall and soil moisture as well as the techniques available for their monitoring is particularly important. In this chapter, we review the most important studies carried out on floods in MA, which focuses on (1) the importance of the rainfall and soil moisture in the triggering and evolution of these events; (2) the monitoring techniques and models available to estimate these two variables along with their operational use for their prediction.
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Enhanced large-scale validation of satellite-based land rainfall products

Chen F.1, W. T. Crow, L. Ciabatta3, P. Filippucci3, G. Panegrossi4, A. C. Marra4, S. Puca5, and C. Massari3, 2020, Enhanced large-scale validation of satellite-based land rainfall products, Journal of hydrometeorology (Online) (2020). doi_10.1175/JHM-D-20-0056.1,

DOI: 10.1175%2FJHM-D-20-0056.1

Abstract
Satellite-based precipitation estimates (SPEs) are generally validated using ground-based rain gauge or radar observations. However, ...
Satellite-based precipitation estimates (SPEs) are generally validated using ground-based rain gauge or radar observations. However, in poorly instrumented regions, uncertainty in these references can lead to biased assessments of SPE accuracy. As a result, at regional or continental scales, an objective basis to evaluate SPEs is currently lacking. Here, we evaluate the potential for large-scale, spatially continuous evaluation of SPEs over land via the application of collocation-based techniques (i.e., triple collocation (TC) and quadruple collocation (QC) analyses). Our collocation approach leverages the SM2RAIN (Soil Moisture to Rain) rainfall product, derived from the time series analysis of satellite-based soil moisture retrievals, in combination with independent rainfall datasets acquired from ground observations and climate reanalysis to validate four years of the EUMETSAT (European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites) H-SAF (Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management) H23 daily rainfall product. Large-scale maps of the H23 correlation metric are generated using both TC and QC analyses. Results demonstrate that the SM2RAIN product is a uniquely valuable independent product for collocation analyses, as other available large-scale rainfall datasets are often based on overlapping data sources and algorithms. In particular, the availability of SM2RAIN facilitates the large-scale evaluation of SPE products like H23 - even in areas lacking adequate ground-based observations to apply traditional validation approaches.
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Understanding and Reducing Landslide Disaster Risk, From Mapping to Hazard and Risk Zonation

Fausto Guzzetti (1), Snje?ana Mihali? Arbanas (2), Paola Reichenbach (3) o Kyoji Sassa (4)o Peter T. Bobrowsky (5) o Kaoru Takara (4), 2020, Understanding and Reducing Landslide Disaster Risk, From Mapping to Hazard and Risk Zonation, Basel: Springer Nature Switzerland, 2020,

Abstract
From Mapping to Hazard and Risk Zonation is Volume 2 of the book "Understanding and ...
From Mapping to Hazard and Risk Zonation is Volume 2 of the book "Understanding and Reducing Landslide Disaster Risk", prepared to collect selected contributions presented to the Fifth World Landslide Forum (WLF5), to be held in Tokyo, Japan, 2-6 November 2021. A contribution of the International Consortium of Landslides (ICL) to landslide disaster risk reduction, the volume is divided in six parts, and comprises an editorial introduction, two keynote articles, and 52 articles covering five main topics related to (i) landslide detection, recognition and mapping techniques and methods tested at various geographical scales and in different morphological, geological and climatic settings, (ii) landslide susceptibility assessment and spatial landslide modelling at different geographical scales, using consolidated and innovative techniques, (iii) landslide size statistics and landslide temporal modelling, which are key, yet inadequately investigated to landslide hazard assessment, (iv) landslide data and information collection, organization, and sharing for improved disaster mitigation, and (v) vulnerability to landslides of people, communities and the built environment, key but poorly understood components of landslide risk assessment.
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LandAware: a new international network on Landslide Early Warning Systems

Calvello, M.; Devoli, G.; Freeborough, K.; Gariano, S. L.; Guzzetti, F.; Kirschbaum, D.; Nakaya, H.; Robbins, J.; Stahli, M., 2020, LandAware: a new international network on Landslide Early Warning Systems, Landslides (Berl., Print) 17 (2020): 2699–2702. doi_10.1007/s10346-020-01548-7,

DOI: 10.1007%2Fs10346-020-01548-7

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Challenges in flood modeling over data-scarce regions_ how to exploit globally available soil moisture products to estimate antecedent soil wetness conditions in Morocco

El Khalki, El Mandi; Tramblay, Yves; Massari, Christian; Brocca, Luca; Simonneaux, Vincent; Gascoin, Simon; Saidi, Mohamed El Mehdi, 2020, Challenges in flood modeling over data-scarce regions_ how to exploit globally available soil moisture products to estimate antecedent soil wetness conditions in Morocco, Natural hazards and earth system sciences (Print) 20 (2020): 2591–2607. doi_10.5194/nhess-20-2591-2020,

DOI: 10.5194%2Fnhess-20-2591-2020

Abstract
The Mediterranean region is characterized by intense rainfall events giving rise to devastating floods. In ...
The Mediterranean region is characterized by intense rainfall events giving rise to devastating floods. In Maghreb countries such as Morocco, there is a strong need for forecasting systems to reduce the impacts of floods. The development of such a system in the case of ungauged catchments is complicated, but remote-sensing products could overcome the lack of in situ measurements. The soil moisture content can strongly modulate the magnitude of flood events and consequently is a crucial parameter to take into account for flood modeling. In this study, different soil moisture products (European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative, ESA-CCI; Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity, SMOS; Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity by the Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique and Centre d'Etudes Spatiales de la Biosphere, SMOS-IC; Advanced Scatterometer, ASCAT; and ERAS reanalysis) are compared to in situ measurements and one continuous soil-moisture-accounting (SMA) model for basins located in the High Atlas Mountains, upstream of the city of Marrakech. The results show that the SMOSIC satellite product and the ERAS reanalysis are best correlated with observed soil moisture and with the SMA model outputs. The different soil moisture datasets were also compared to estimate the initial soil moisture condition for an event-based hydrological model based on the Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN). The ASCAT, SMOS-IC, and ERAS products performed equally well in validation to simulate floods, outperforming daily in situ soil moisture measurements that may not be representative of the whole catchment soil moisture conditions. The results also indicated that the daily time step may not fully represent the saturation state before a flood event due to the rapid decay of soil moisture after rainfall in these semiarid environments. Indeed, at the hourly time step, ERAS and in situ measurements were found to better represent the initial soil moisture conditions of the SCS-CN model by comparison with the daily time step. The results of this work could be used to implement efficient flood modeling and forecasting systems in semiarid regions where soil moisture measurements are lacking.
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Which rainfall score is more informative about the performance in river discharge simulation? A comprehensive assessment on 1318 basins over Europe

Camici, Stefania; Massari, Christian; Ciabatta, Luca; Marchesini, Ivan; Brocca, Luca, 2020, Which rainfall score is more informative about the performance in river discharge simulation? A comprehensive assessment on 1318 basins over Europe, Hydrology and earth system sciences 24 (2020): 4869–4885. doi_10.5194/hess-24-4869-2020,

DOI: 10.5194%2Fhess-24-4869-2020

Abstract
The global availability of satellite rainfall products (SRPs) at an increasingly high temporal and spatial ...
The global availability of satellite rainfall products (SRPs) at an increasingly high temporal and spatial resolution has made their exploitation in hydrological applications possible, especially in data-scarce regions. In this context, understanding how uncertainties transfer from SRPs to river discharge simulations, through the hydrological model, is a main research question.
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River flow monitoring by Sentinel-3 OLCI and MODIS_ comparison and combination

Tarpanelli A., Iodice F., Brocca L., Restano M., Benveniste J., 2020, River flow monitoring by Sentinel-3 OLCI and MODIS_ comparison and combination, Remote sensing (Basel) 12 (2020). doi_10.3390/rs12233867,

DOI: 10.3390%2Frs12233867

Abstract
The monitoring of rivers by satellite is an up-to-date subject in hydrological studies as confirmed ...
The monitoring of rivers by satellite is an up-to-date subject in hydrological studies as confirmed by the interest of space agencies to finance specific missions that respond to the quantification of surface water flows. We address the problem by using multi-spectral sensors, in the near-infrared (NIR) band, correlating the reflectance ratio between a dry and a wet pixel extracted from a time series of images, the C/M ratio, with five river flow-related variables_ water level, river discharge, flow area, mean flow velocity and surface width. The innovative aspect of this study is the use of the Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) on board Sentinel-3 satellites, compared to the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) used in previous studies. Our results show that the C/M ratio from OLCI and MODIS is more correlated with the mean flow velocity than with other variables. To improve the number of observations, OLCI and MODIS products are combined into multi-mission time series. The integration provides good quality data at around daily resolution, appropriate for the analysis of the Po River investigated in this study. Finally, the combination of only MODIS products outperforms the other configurations with a frequency slightly lower (~1.8 days).
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Geological evolution of the Sinus Iridum basin

Hu T.; Kang Z.; Massironi M.; Hiesinger H.; van der Bogert C.H.; Gamba P.; Brunetti M.T.; Melis M.T., 2020, Geological evolution of the Sinus Iridum basin, Planetary and space science 194 (2020). doi_10.1016/j.pss.2020.105134,

DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.pss.2020.105134

Abstract
As a semi-enclosed crater basin on the northwest rim of Imbrium basin, Sinus Iridum is ...
As a semi-enclosed crater basin on the northwest rim of Imbrium basin, Sinus Iridum is a key site to investigate the geological characteristics at the intersection of two basins. For this reason, we focused on model age determination in Sinus Iridum basin using Chang'E-2 high-resolution images coupled with compositional maps from the Clementine data sets, as well as with digital elevation models (DEMs) from the Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) onboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO). With these datasets we identified different geologic units onto which we performed model age determinations based on crater counting. This systematic analysis of the Sinus Iridum basin shows that the age of the oldest exposed basaltic unit is 3.37 Ga (Imbrian age), while the youngest, a mare basalt unit that enters the basin from Imbrium basin, is 1.24 Ga (late Eratosthenian). In general, the ages of the geologic units inside the Sinus Iridum basin gradually decrease from the northeast to the southwest, with the only exception of the young units being located in the north-eastern area. We conclude that the crater size-frequency distributions (CSFD) reflect a multi-layer sequence, suggesting multiple resurfacing events inside Sinus Iridum. The model age determinations identify several infilling events of basalts ranging from 3.37 Ga to 1.24 Ga, which are all derived mare basalt flows from the Imbrium basin.
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Exploiting High-Resolution Remote Sensing Soil Moisture to Estimate Irrigation Water Amounts over a Mediterranean Region

Dari, Jacopo; Brocca, Luca; Quintana-Segui, Pere; Escorihuela, Maria Jose; Stefan, Vivien; Morbidelli, Renato, 2020, Exploiting High-Resolution Remote Sensing Soil Moisture to Estimate Irrigation Water Amounts over a Mediterranean Region, Remote sensing (Basel) 12 (2020). doi_10.3390/rs12162593,

DOI: 10.3390%2Frs12162593

Abstract
Despite irrigation being one of the main sources of anthropogenic water consumption, detailed information about ...
Despite irrigation being one of the main sources of anthropogenic water consumption, detailed information about water amounts destined for this purpose are often lacking worldwide. In this study, a methodology which can be used to estimate irrigation amounts over a pilot area in Spain by exploiting remotely sensed soil moisture is proposed. Two high-resolution DISPATCH (DISaggregation based on Physical And Theoretical scale CHange) downscaled soil moisture products have been used_ SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) and SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) at 1 km. The irrigation estimates have been obtained through the SM2RAIN algorithm, in which the evapotranspiration term has been improved to adequately reproduce the crop evapotranspiration over irrigated areas according to the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) model. The experiment exploiting the SMAP data at 1 km represents the main work analyzed in this study and covered the period from January 2016 to September 2017. The experiment with the SMOS data at 1 km, for which a longer time series is available, allowed the irrigation estimates to be extended back to 2011. For both of the experiments carried out, the proposed method performed well in reproducing the magnitudes of the irrigation amounts that actually occurred in four of the five pilot irrigation districts. The SMAP experiment, for which a more detailed analysis was performed, also provided satisfactory results in representing the spatial distribution and the timing of the irrigation events. In addition, the investigation into which term of the SM2RAIN algorithm plays the leading role in determining the amount of water entering into the soil highlights the importance of correct representation of the evapotranspiration process.
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Evaluating the terrain susceptibility to mass movements

Paola Reichenbach (1), Mauro Rossi (1), Fausto Guzzetti (2) and Bruce D. Malamud (3), 2020, Evaluating the terrain susceptibility to mass movements, Evaluating the Terrain Susceptibility to Mass-Movements, Treatise on Geomorphology, 2nd edition. Amsterdam_ Elsevier, 2020,

Abstract
The variability of landslide phenomena in terms of types, velocity and size, makes it difficult ...
The variability of landslide phenomena in terms of types, velocity and size, makes it difficult to establish a unique methodology for the definition of landslide susceptibility, with different approaches proposed in the literature for the prediction of landslide occurrence. In addition, the extent of the study area and the characteristics of the available data may influence the selection of the susceptibility models. For these reasons, landslide susceptibility studies described in the literature use different modelling approaches adopting a variety of mapping units and thematic information. In this chapter, we first use a database of 565 articles from a recent systematic review of the literature to illustrate and describe a synthesis of relevant information on landslide susceptibility modelling and terrain zonation. We then present examples of susceptibility zonations prepared at four different scales_ (i) continental (Europe), (ii) national (Italy), (iii) sub-national (Umbria Region, Italy), and (iv) catchment scale (Collazzone area, Italy), using different data types and resolutions, different mapping units, and various statistically-based modelling approaches. We use these four examples to provide our reflections on the proprieties of the geo-environmental data, and the main characteristics of the modelling approaches at different scales. We conclude with a few steps that could become a starting point for the discussion and definition of a standard for statistically-based landslide susceptibility methods and zonation.
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Exploiting high-resolution remote sensing soil moisture to estimate irrigation water amounts over a Mediterranean region

Dari, Jacopo; Brocca, Luca; Quintana-Seguí, Pere; Escorihuela, María José; Stefan, Vivien; Morbidelli, Renato, 2020, Exploiting high-resolution remote sensing soil moisture to estimate irrigation water amounts over a Mediterranean region, Remote sensing (Basel) 12 (2020). doi_10.3390/RS12162593,

DOI: 10.3390%2FRS12162593

Abstract
Despite irrigation being one of the main sources of anthropogenic water consumption, detailed information about ...
Despite irrigation being one of the main sources of anthropogenic water consumption, detailed information about water amounts destined for this purpose are often lacking worldwide. In this study, a methodology which can be used to estimate irrigation amounts over a pilot area in Spain by exploiting remotely sensed soil moisture is proposed. Two high-resolution DISPATCH (DISaggregation based on Physical And Theoretical scale CHange) downscaled soil moisture products have been used_ SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) and SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity) at 1 km. The irrigation estimates have been obtained through the SM2RAIN algorithm, in which the evapotranspiration term has been improved to adequately reproduce the crop evapotranspiration over irrigated areas according to the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) model. The experiment exploiting the SMAP data at 1 km represents the main work analyzed in this study and covered the period from January 2016 to September 2017. The experiment with the SMOS data at 1 km, for which a longer time series is available, allowed the irrigation estimates to be extended back to 2011. For both of the experiments carried out, the proposed method performed well in reproducing the magnitudes of the irrigation amounts that actually occurred in four of the five pilot irrigation districts. The SMAP experiment, for which a more detailed analysis was performed, also provided satisfactory results in representing the spatial distribution and the timing of the irrigation events. In addition, the investigation into which term of the SM2RAIN algorithm plays the leading role in determining the amount of water entering into the soil highlights the importance of correct representation of the evapotranspiration process.
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River flow prediction in data scarce regions_ soil moisture integrated satellite rainfall products outperform rain gauge observations in West Africa

Brocca, Luca; Massari, Christian; Pellarin, Thierry; Filippucci, Paolo; Ciabatta, Luca; Camici, Stefania; Kerr, Yann H.; Fernandez-Prieto, Diego, 2020, River flow prediction in data scarce regions_ soil moisture integrated satellite rainfall products outperform rain gauge observations in West Africa, Scientific reports (Nature Publishing Group) 10 (2020). doi_10.1038/s41598-020-69343-x,

DOI: 10.1038%2Fs41598-020-69343-x

Abstract
Satellite precipitation products have been largely improved in the recent years particularly with the launch ...
Satellite precipitation products have been largely improved in the recent years particularly with the launch of the global precipitation measurement (GPM) core satellite. Moreover, the development of techniques for exploiting the information provided by satellite soil moisture to complement/enhance precipitation products have improved the accuracy of accumulated rainfall estimates over land. Such satellite enhanced precipitation products, available with a short latency (<1 day), represent an important and new source of information for river flow prediction and water resources management, particularly in developing countries in which ground observations are scarcely available and the access to such data is not always ensured. In this study, three recently developed rainfall products obtained from the integration of GPM rainfall and satellite soil moisture products have been used; namely GPM+SM2RAIN, PRISM-SMOS, and PRISM-SMAP. The prediction of observed daily river discharge at 10 basins located in Europe (4), West Africa (3) and South Africa (3) is carried out. For comparison, we have also considered three rainfall products based on_ (1) GPM only, i.e., the Early Run version of the Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals for GPM (GPM-ER), (2) rain gauges, i.e., the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre, and (3) the latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis, ERA5. Three different conceptual and lumped rainfall-runoff models are employed to obtain robust and reliable results over the 3-year data period 2015-2017. Results indicate that, particularly over scarcely gauged areas (West Africa), the integrated products outperform both ground- and reanalysis-based rainfall estimates. For all basins, the GPM+SM2RAIN product is performing the best among the short latency products with mean Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) equal to 0.87, and significantly better than GPM-ER (mean KGE=0.77). The integrated products are found to reproduce particularly well the high flows. These results highlight the strong need to disseminate such integrated satellite rainfall products for hydrological (and agricultural) applications in poorly gauged areas such as Africa and South America.
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Globorotalia truncatulinoides in Central – Western Mediterranean Sea during the Little Ice Age

Giulia Margaritelli a, Fabrizio Lirer b, Katrin Schroeder c, Alberico Ines b, Maria Paola Dentici d, Antonio Caruso d, 2020, Globorotalia truncatulinoides in Central – Western Mediterranean Sea during the Little Ice Age, Marine micropaleontology (Print) (2020). doi_10.1016/j.marmicro.2020.101921,

DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.marmicro.2020.101921

Abstract
Globorotalia truncatulinoides oscillations have been recorded from different marine sediment cores collected in the central ...
Globorotalia truncatulinoides oscillations have been recorded from different marine sediment cores collected in the central and western Mediterranean Sea. The abundances of this species over the last 500 yrs. demonstrates its potential value as bio-indicator of particular oceanographic condition during the Maunder Minimum (MM) event of the Little Ice Age (LIA). The comparison between the G. truncatulinoides abundance patterns of the Balearic Basin, central and south Tyrrhenian Sea and central and eastern Sicily Channel allows to highlight a similar response of this species during the MM event in the central-western Mediterranean Sea. The ecological meanings of this species and its peculiar high abundance percentages in the total assemblages suggest the development of enhanced vertical mixing conditions during MM winter season with a strong advection of nutrients from the nutrient-rich deeper layers and enhances the productivity levels in the mixed layer. The intensified vertical mixing could be linked to persistence of an atmospheric blocking event recorded by several authors during the MM.
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Probabilistic identification of rockfall source areas at regional scale in El Hierro (Canary Islands, Spain)

1)Mauro Rossi, 2)Roberto Sarro, 1)Paola Reichenbach, 3)Rosa María Mateos, 2020, Probabilistic identification of rockfall source areas at regional scale in El Hierro (Canary Islands, Spain), Geomorphology (Amst.) (2020).,

Abstract
Modelling rockfall phenomena is complex and requires various input including an accurate location of the ...
Modelling rockfall phenomena is complex and requires various input including an accurate location of the source areas. Source areas are controlled by geomorphological, geological or other geo-environmental factors and may largely influence the results of the modelling. In the Canary Islands, rockfalls are very common and they pose a major threat to society, costing lives, disrupting infrastructures and destroying livelihoods. In 2011, the volcanic event in the island of El Hierro, triggered numerous rockfalls that affected strategic infrastructures with a major impact on the local population. During the emergency, the efforts performed to map source areas and to model the rockfalls in the very steep landscape characterizing the island, was not trivial. To better identify the rockfall source areas, we propose a probabilistic modelling framework, which applies a combination of multiple statistical models using the source area locations mapped in the field as dependent variable and a set of thematic information as independent variables. The models use as input morphometric parameters derived from the Digital Elevation Model and lithological information as an expression of the mechanical behaviour of the rocks. The analysis of different training and validation scenarios allowed_ to test the model sensitivity to input data; to select the optimal model training configuration and to evaluate the model applicability outside the training areas. The final map obtained from the modelling, provides for the entire island of El Hierro, the probability of a given location being a potential source area and can be used as input for rockfall runout simulation modelling.
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Editorial for the special issue “remote sensing of flow velocity, channel bathymetry, and river discharge”

Legleiter C.J.; Pavelsky T.; Durand M.; Allen G.H.; Tarpanelli A.; Frasson R.; Guneralp I.; Woodget A., 2020, Editorial for the special issue “remote sensing of flow velocity, channel bathymetry, and river discharge”, Remote sensing (Basel) 12 (2020): 2304–2310. doi_10.3390/rs12142304,

DOI: 10.3390%2Frs12142304

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LAND-deFeND 1.1 un geodatabase di eventi geo-idrologici per attività di Protezione Civile nella Regione Puglia

Carmela Vennari, Domenico Casarano, Ivan Marchesini, Paola Salvati, Mario Parise, Piernicola Lollino, 2020, LAND-deFeND 1.1 un geodatabase di eventi geo-idrologici per attività di Protezione Civile nella Regione Puglia, Analisi e attività di mitigazione dei processi geo-idrologici in Italia, pp. 156–160, Roma, 29 novembbre 2019,

Abstract
Building a geo-database on geo- hydrological phenomena (landslides, floods, sinkholes) represents the basic activity for the complex elaborations aimed ...
Building a geo-database on geo- hydrological phenomena (landslides, floods, sinkholes) represents the basic activity for the complex elaborations aimed at the spatial and temporal pre- diction of future events and their pos- sible consequences. The collection and organization of data, together with the management of the database structure, is of extreme importance for the practi- cal technical use of the catalogue. A new database structure, LAND-deFeND 1.1, designed and developed by CNR-IRPI is here presented. It is a database struc- ture that allows to record, organize and manage non-homogeneous information on geo-hydrological events (landslides, floods, sinkholes) occurred in the past, able to overcome many of the limitations highlighted in the databases for Italy. The database has been implemented in the framework of a project involving Civil Protection Department of Apulia region, in order to collect available information on geo-hydrological events occurred in Apulia after 1992. The structure of the database is then presented, illustrating the methodology used to collect information and record data in the database. The col- lected data are presented, with particular attention to a complex event, in order to highlight the potential of the structure.
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Analisi di una sequenza di eventi alluvionali post-incendio nell’area del Monte Salto, Montoro (Avellino)

Giuseppe Esposito, Rocco Masi, Giovanni Nanni, Filiberto Russo, Stefano Alfano, Gaetano Giannatiempo, 2020, Analisi di una sequenza di eventi alluvionali post-incendio nell’area del Monte Salto, Montoro (Avellino), Geologia dell'ambiente 1/2020 (2020): 184–189.,

Abstract
Nel presente lavoro viene analizzata una sequenza di quattro eventi alluvionali post-incendio avvenuti nel 2017 ...
Nel presente lavoro viene analizzata una sequenza di quattro eventi alluvionali post-incendio avvenuti nel 2017 nell'area del Monte Salto (Montoro - AV). I dati presentati hanno lo scopo di fornire una prima descrizione degli eventi, e cercare di mettere in evidenza le potenziali relazioni tra incendi e fenomeni geo-idrologici. Nello specifico, viene presentata una caratterizzazione della severità degli incendi realizzata mediante prodotti satellitari; vengono caratterizzate le precipitazioni che hanno innescato i fenomeni di colata fangoso-detritica; viene fornita una generale descrizione degli effetti registrati nelle aree abitate della zona pedemontana. Nella parte finale viene presentata una discussione dei risultati in chiave di pericolosità, e vengono proposti alcuni suggerimenti per la riduzione del rischio.
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Mechanisms and frequency-size statistics of failures characterizing a coastal cliff partially protected from the wave erosive action

Esposito, Giuseppe; Matano, Fabio; Sacchi, Marco; Salvini, Riccardo, 2020, Mechanisms and frequency-size statistics of failures characterizing a coastal cliff partially protected from the wave erosive action, Rendiconti lincei. Scienze fisiche e naturali 31 (2020). doi_10.1007/s12210-020-00902-0,

DOI: 10.1007%2Fs12210-020-00902-0

Abstract
Landslides and surface erosion are major processes controlling the progressive recession of many rocky cliffs ...
Landslides and surface erosion are major processes controlling the progressive recession of many rocky cliffs along the Italian coastline. Nevertheless, many coastal settlements were built along cliffed sectors prone to rapid collapses. This represents a serious risk for tourists and living people, as well as for buildings, roads and railway networks. The densely urbanized coastline of the Campi Flegrei active volcanic district is one of the rocky coastal areas of South Italy mostly exposed to the recession. Here, coastal cliffs are made by volcaniclastic deposits and include remnants of ancient volcanic edifices formed in the last 15 ka. Due to petrographic, geotechnical and geostructural properties of volcaniclastic deposits, these cliffs have been affected by rapid recession since their origin. This research focuses on a cliff of the Campi Flegrei coastaline (Torrefumo, Monte di Procida) which, although currently protected from the sea waves by a seawall, is still retreating. We assessed the ongoing recession using a change detection analysis, based on accurate topographic data acquired with two terrestrial laser scanning surveys executed in 2013 and 2016. The quantitative comparison of 3D point clouds datasets allowed detecting 191 cliff failures. We verified that the frequency-magnitude distribution of the detached blocks followed an inverse power law, and most of the involved volumes were between 0.01 and 1 m(3). Retreat rates of different cliff sectors varied from 0.001 to 0.025 m/year. Our analysis also allowed us to recognize slope failure mechanisms and distinguish rock falls from grain-by-grain surficial erosion.
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Modelling societal landslide risk in Italy

Mauro Rossi, Fausto Guzzetti, Paola Salvati, Marco Donnini, Elisabetta Napolitano, and Cinzia Bianchi, 2020, Modelling societal landslide risk in Italy, Geophisycal Research Abstract EGU General Assembly (2020). doi_10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-13661,

DOI: 10.5194%2Fegusphere-egu2020-13661

Abstract
Landslides cause every year worldwide severe damages to the population. A quantitative knowledge of the ...
Landslides cause every year worldwide severe damages to the population. A quantitative knowledge of the impact of landsliding phenomena on the society is fundamental for a proper and accurate assessment of the risk posed by such natural hazards. In this work, a novel approach is proposed to evaluate the spatial and temporal distribution of societal landslide risk from historical, sparse, point information on fatal landslides and their direct human consequence.s (Rossi et al., Accepted). The approach was tested in Italy, using a detailed catalogue listing 5571 fatalities caused by 1017 landslides at 958 sites across Italy, in the 155-year period 1861 - 2015. The model adopting a Zipf distribution to evaluate societal landslide risk for the whole of Italy, and for seven physiographic and 20 administrative subdivisions of Italy. The model is able to provide estimates of the frequency (and the probability) of fatal landslides, based on the parameters, namely (i) the largest magnitude landslide F, (ii) the number of fatal events E, and (iii) the scaling exponent of the Zipf distribution s, which controls the relative proportion of low vs. large magnitude landslides. Different grid spacings, g and circular kernel sizes, r were tested finally adopting g = 10 km and r = 55 km. Using such geometrical model configuration, the values of the F, E and s parameters were derived for each grid cells revealing the complexity of landslide risk in Italy, which cannot be described properly with a single set of such parameters. Based on such modeling configuration. This model configuration allowed to estimate different risk scenarios for landslides of increasing magnitudes, which were validated checking the anticipated return period of the fatal events against information on 130 fatal landslides between 1000 and 1860, and eleven fatal landslides between January 2016 and August 2018. Despite incompleteness in the old part of the record for the low magnitude landslides, and the short length and limited number of events in the recent period 2016 - 2018, the anticipated return periods are in good agreement with the occurrence of fatal landslides in both validation periods. Despite the known difficulty in modelling sparse datasets, the proposed approach was able to provide a coherent and realistic representation and new insight on the spatial and temporal variations of societal landslide risk in Italy.
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Probabilistic identification of rockfall source areas_ an example from El Hierro island (Canary Island, Spain)

Mauro Rossi (1), Roberto Sarro (2), Paola Reichenbach (1), Rosa Maria Mateos (2), 2020, Probabilistic identification of rockfall source areas_ an example from El Hierro island (Canary Island, Spain), Geophisycal Research Abstract EGU General Assembly (2020). doi_10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-10469,

DOI: 10.5194%2Fegusphere-egu2020-10469

Abstract
Rockfalls are the most frequent and dangerous instability phenomena in mountainous areas, causing high economic ...
Rockfalls are the most frequent and dangerous instability phenomena in mountainous areas, causing high economic and social damages. Rockfalls are triggered by complex instability mechanisms and the source areas are controlled by environmental factors like geology, the presence of discontinuities and slope angle. Modeling rockfall phenomena is complex and requires diversified input including parameters controlling the boulders trajectories and the source areas identification. In the Canary Islands, the steep topography and the geological complexity influence the activation of slope dynamics and the occurrence of slope failures. In particular, rockfalls are very common and they represent a major threat to society, costing lives, disrupting infrastructures and destroying livelihoods. In 2011 the volcanic crisis in El Hierro Island triggered numerous rockfalls that affected the road network causing a great social alarm. After the recent event, we have attempted to identify rockfall source areas using different approaches including probabilistic modeling. The probabilistic approach applies a combination of multiple statistical models and requires a map of the observed source areas as dependent variable and a set of thematic information as independent variables (e.g., morphometric parameters derived from DTM, lithological information that considers the mechanical behavior of the rocks). For the purpose, we have identified various scenarios selecting different training and validation zones and evaluating for each scenario the associated errors. The maps resulting from the models, provide for the whole El Hierro Island, the probability of a pixel being a source area and can be used as input for the rockfall modeling.
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Economic landslide susceptibility under a socio-economic perspective_ an application to Umbria Region (Central Italy)

Donnini M.; Modica M.; Salvati P.; Marchesini I.; Rossi M.; Guzzetti F.; Zoboli R., 2020, Economic landslide susceptibility under a socio-economic perspective_ an application to Umbria Region (Central Italy), Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft (2020). doi_10.1007/s10037-020-00143-6,

DOI: 10.1007%2Fs10037-020-00143-6

Abstract
An accurate understanding of physical and socio-economic effects of landslides is fundamental to develop more ...
An accurate understanding of physical and socio-economic effects of landslides is fundamental to develop more refined risk management, mitigation strategies and land use policies. In this paper we develop a measure to consider the interconnection between physical and economic exposure, i.e. what we call the economic landslide susceptibility, namely the probability of landslide occurrence in an area weighted for its socio-economic exposure considering the real-estate market values. The economic landslide susceptibility is estimated through a method designed for large areas that we applied to the Umbria Region (Central Italy). The method makes use of landslide susceptibility maps and a real estate market value map for any given area under analysis. The innovative concept of economic landslide susceptibility (that is de facto an ex ante landslide cost assessment) may be interpreted as the potential loss that an area might suffer in terms of its propensity for landslides. Useful applications of the proposed method lie in a better territorial management and in the land use planning.
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Rainfall and rockfalls in the Canary Islands_ assessing a seasonal link

Massimo Melillo, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Silvia Peruccacci, Roberto Sarro, Rosa Marìa Mateos, and Maria Teresa Brunetti, 2020, Rainfall and rockfalls in the Canary Islands_ assessing a seasonal link, Natural hazards and earth system sciences (Online) 20 (2020): 2307–2317. doi_10.5194/nhess-20-2307-2020,

DOI: 10.5194%2Fnhess-20-2307-2020

Abstract
Rockfalls are frequent and harmful phenomena occurring in mountain ranges, coastal cliffs, and slope cuts. ...
Rockfalls are frequent and harmful phenomena occurring in mountain ranges, coastal cliffs, and slope cuts. Although several natural processes occur in their formation and triggering, rainfall is one of the most common causes. The prediction of rock failures is of social significance for civil protection purposes and can rely on the statistical analysis of past rainfall conditions that caused the failures. The paper describes the analysis of information on rainfall-induced rockfalls in Gran Canaria and Tenerife, Canary Islands (Spain). An analysis of the monthly rainfall versus the monthly distribution of rockfalls reveals that they are correlated for most of the year, except in summer, when other triggers act to induce collapses. National and regional catalogs with hourly and daily rainfall measurements are used to reconstruct the cumulated amount (E) and the duration (D) of the rainfall responsible for the rock failures. Adopting a consolidated statistical approach, new ED rainfall thresholds for possible rockfall occurrence and the associated uncertainties are calculated for the two test sites. As far as is known, this is the first attempt to predict this type of failure using the threshold approach. Using the rainfall information, a map of the mean annual rainfall is obtained for Gran Canaria and Tenerife, and it is used to assess the differences between the thresholds. The results of this study are expected to improve the ability to forecast rockfalls in the Canary Islands in view of implementing an early-warning system to mitigate the rockfall hazard and reduce the associated risk.
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CC-DPC 2018-2019 – WP3 Implementazione SANF 3.0 presso DPC

Ivan Marchesini, Mauro Rossi, 2020, CC-DPC 2018-2019 – WP3 Implementazione SANF 3.0 presso DPC, 19 Febbraio 2020, 2020,

Abstract
Il presente documento descrive le attività svolte nell'ambito del WP3 dell'accordo. L'obiettivo del WP era l'implementazione ...
Il presente documento descrive le attività svolte nell'ambito del WP3 dell'accordo. L'obiettivo del WP era l'implementazione di SANF 3.0 presso il DPC. Tali attività erano state ridisegnate in seguito ai risultati del Task 3.1, che ha riguardato la pianificazione del lavoro da svolgere in accordo con i tecnici del DPC. Con rapporto del 31 maggio 2019 si comunicava che non era stato tuttavia possibile giungere alla piena implementazione di SANF 3.0 a causa di problemi non dipendenti dalla volontà di IRPI CNR. Il presente rapporto descrive le attività effettuate dopo la scadenza dell'accordo a conclusione di quanto originariamente previsto.
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ITALGAS – Rapporti di Prova riguardanti 100 siti d’indagine

Ivan Marchesini, Federico Fugnoli, Cristiano Corradini, Augusto Benigni, 2020, ITALGAS – Rapporti di Prova riguardanti 100 siti d’indagine, 23 marzo 2020, 2020,

Abstract
Laboratorio CNR IRPI Perugia. Consegna Rapporti di Prova per accertamenti sperimentali e valutazioni comparative utili per ...
Laboratorio CNR IRPI Perugia. Consegna Rapporti di Prova per accertamenti sperimentali e valutazioni comparative utili per la verifica della conformità della rete di distribuzione del gas in prescelte tratte/sezioni del territorio italiano. Rif. contratto ITALGAS - CNR prot. CNR n. 0018528 del 17/ marzo 2016.
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Slope-catchment area relationship for debris-flow source area identification

Ivan Marchesini, Mauro Rossi, Massimiliano Alvioli, Michele Santangelo and Mauro Cardinali, 2020, Slope-catchment area relationship for debris-flow source area identification, Geomorphometry 2020, pp. 174–177, Perugia, postponed,

Abstract
Classification of the source areas of debris flow, mud flows, debris avalanches is fundamental for the ...
Classification of the source areas of debris flow, mud flows, debris avalanches is fundamental for the zonation of the territory susceptibility to the propagation of these type of landslide phenomena. Here we describe and discuss the data and the methods adopted to derive empirical equations useful to identify and to classify the possible source areas of fast moving landslides at regional and national scale in Italy. The empirical equations were derived based on a large catalogue of debris flows and the fitting of quantile regression curves. We used a 10m resolution DEM and an inventory of more than 4000 landslides distributed on three different Italian regions. Results highlight that differences exist between the equation parameters derived for confined and unconfined debris-flows.
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GEOMORPHOMETRY 2020

Massimiliano Alvioli, Ivan Marchesini, Laura Melelli, Peter Guth, 2020, GEOMORPHOMETRY 2020, 2020,

Abstract
Geomorphometry is the science of quantitative land surface analysis. It gathers various mathematical, statistical and ...
Geomorphometry is the science of quantitative land surface analysis. It gathers various mathematical, statistical and image processing techniques to quantify morphological, hydrological, ecological and other aspects of a land surface. Common synonyms for geomorphometry are geomorphological analysis, terrain morphometry or terrain analysis and land surface analysis. The typical input to geomorphometric analysis is a square-grid representation of the land surface_ a digital elevation (or land surface) model. The first Geomorphometry conference dates back to 2009 and it took place in Zürich, Switzerland. Subsequent events were in Redlands (California), Nánj?ng (China), Poznan (Poland) and Boulder (Colorado), at about two years intervals. The International Society for Geomorphometry (ISG) and the Organizing Committee scheduled the sixth Geomorphometry conference in Perugia, Italy, June 2020. Worldwide safety measures dictated the event could not be held in presence, and we excluded the possibility to hold the conference remotely. Thus, we postponed the event by one year - it will be organized in June 2021, in Perugia, hosted by the Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection of the Italian National Research Council (CNR IRPI) and the Department of Physics and Geology of the University of Perugia. One of the reasons why we postponed the conference, instead of canceling, was the encouraging number of submitted abstracts. Abstracts are actually short papers consisting of four pages, including figures and references, and they were peer-reviewed by the Scientific Committee of the conference. This book is a collection of the contributions revised by the authors after peer review. We grouped them in seven classes, as follows_ o Data and methods (12 abstracts) o Geoheritage (6 abstracts) o Glacial processes (9 abstracts) o LIDAR and high resolution data (6 abstracts) o Morphotectonics (8 abstracts) o Natural hazards (11 abstracts) o Soil erosion and fluvial processes (17 abstracts) The 69 abstracts represent 80% of the initial contributions. The remaining ones were either not accepted after peer review or withdrawn by their Authors. Most of the contributions contain original material, and an extended version of a subset of them will be included in a special issue of a regular journal publication. Three keynote speakers were scheduled for the conference_ Marco Cavalli, Igor V. Florinsky and Michael Hutchinson. Prof. Hutchinson is the recipient of the ISG's Lifetime Achievement Award. Marco Cavalli is researcher at CNR IRPI Padova since 2009. His research interests mainly focus on the development and application of geomorphometric approaches to LiDAR data and high-resolution Digital Terrain Models with specific attention to geomorphic processes and sediment dynamics in mountain catchments. His main works concerned the development of indices of surface roughness and sediment connectivity along with the use of DEM differencing techniques to assess geomorphic changes. Igor V. Florinsky is a Principal Research Scientist at the Institute of Mathematical Problems of Biology, Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics at the Russian Academy of Sciences. He is the author or editor of over 150 publications including 4 books and 60 papers in peer-reviewed journals. His research interests include theory, methods, and applications of digital terrain modeling and geomorphometry, as well as the influence of geological environment on humans, society, and civilization. Michael Hutchinson is recognized internationally for his contributions to the theory and practice of spatial and temporal analysis of environmental data. His methods for modelling of climate and terrain, as implemented in the ANUDEM, ANUSPLIN and ANUCLIM computer packages, are widely used to support hydrological and ecological modelling and the assessment of the impacts of climate change. His Australia-wide terrain and climate models have underpinned much of the natural resource and environmental analysis carried out by Australian Universities and Natural Resource Agencies over the last 30 years.
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A new Alpine geo-lithological map (Alpine-Geo-LiM) and global carbon cycle implications

Marco Donnini and Ivan Marchesini and Azzurra Zucchini, 2020, A new Alpine geo-lithological map (Alpine-Geo-LiM) and global carbon cycle implications, The Geological Society of America bulletin (Online) (2020). doi_10.1130/b35236.1,

DOI: 10.1130%2Fb35236.1

Abstract
The chemical composition of river waters gives a measure of the atmospheric CO2 fixed by ...
The chemical composition of river waters gives a measure of the atmospheric CO2 fixed by chemical weathering processes. Since the dominating factors controlling these processes are lithology and runoff, as well as uplift and erosion, we introduce a new simplified geo-lithological map of the Alps (Alpine-Geo-LiM) that adopted a lithological classification compliant with the methods most used in literature for estimating the consumption of atmospheric CO2 by chemical weathering. The map was used together with published alkalinity data of the 33 main Alpine rivers (1) to investigate the relationship between bicarbonate concentration in the sampled waters and the lithologies of the corresponding drained basins, and (2) to quantify the atmospheric CO2 consumed by chemical weathering. The analyses confirm (as known by the literature) that carbonates are lithologies highly prone to consuming atmospheric CO2. Moreover, the analyses show that sandstone (which could have a nonnegligible carbonate component) plays an important role in consuming atmospheric CO2. Another result is that in multilithological basins containing lithologies more prone to consuming atmospheric CO2, the contribution of igneous rocks to the atmospheric CO2 consumption is negligible. Alpine-Geo-LiM has several novel features when compared with published global lithological maps. One novel feature is due to the attention paid in discriminating metamorphic rocks, which were classified according to the chemistry of protoliths. The second novel feature is that the procedure used for the definition of the map was made available on the Web to allow the replicability and reproducibility of the product.
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