Romano, Emanuele; Camici, Stefania; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso; Pica, Federico; Preziosi, Elisabetta, 2014, On the variables to be considered in assessing the impact of climate change to alluvial aquifers_ A case study in central Italy,
Procedia engineering 70 (2014): 1430–1440. doi_10.1016/j.proeng.2014.02.158,
DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.proeng.2014.02.158
Abstract
Most of the scientific community agrees that global climate change is occurring with a general ...
Most of the scientific community agrees that global climate change is occurring with a general increase in mean overall temperature (+0.74±0.18°C from 1906-2005) and that the precipitation pattern in Europe is trending toward wetter conditions in the northern region and drier conditions in the southern and central-eastern regions. A much larger uncertainty concerns how the changes in precipitations will impact on the water resources, particularly on the groundwater. The goal of this paper is to investigate the variables to be considered in order to estimate the Sustainable Pumping Rate of an aquifer (SPR) in a context of climate change. For this goal the case study of the Petrignano d'Assisi porous aquifer has been considered, mainly fed by the inflow from the carbonatic ridges and by the effective infiltration; it is exploited since the 1970s through a well field (about 350 l/s). Changes in the precipitation regime could significantly affect the recharge to the aquifer and the related SPR. This study shows the key role played by the interactions of the aquifer with the surface bodies (rivers): in case of a significant decreasing in the effective infiltration, the aquifer system decreases the outflow to the rivers (base flow) leaving almost constant the sustainable pumping rate. 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Zucco, Graziano; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso; Morbidelli, Renato, 2014, Influence of land use on soil moisture spatial-temporal variability and monitoring,
Journal of hydrology (Amst.) (2014). doi_10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.01.043,
DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.jhydrol.2014.01.043
Abstract
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Camici, S.; Brocca, L.; Melone, F.; Moramarco, T., 2014, Impact of Climate Change on Flood Frequency Using Different Climate Models and Downscaling Approaches,
Journal of hydrologic engineering 19 (2014). doi_10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000959.,
DOI: 10.1061%2F(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000959.
Abstract
The analysis of the climate change impact on flood frequency represents an important issue for ...
The analysis of the climate change impact on flood frequency represents an important issue for water resources management and flood risk mitigation. However, for small/medium catchments (< 1,000 km(2)), the spatial-temporal resolution of global circulation models (GCMs) output is not adequate (> 40,000 km(2)) and downscaling procedures are required. In this paper, two different GCMs selected among the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 models, the Hadley Center Coupled Model, the Parallel Climate Model, and two statistical downscaling approaches, (1) delta change, and (2) quantile mapping, are compared. For the generation of long hourly time series of rainfall, temperature, and discharge, stochastic weather generators coupled with a continuous rainfall-runoff model are employed. Therefore, the frequency of annual maxima rainfall and discharge is projected for the future period 2070-2099 over three small subcatchments in the Upper Tiber River Basin, central Italy. Results reveal that both the GCMs and downscaling methods play a significant role in the determination of the climate change impact for future scenarios, mainly in terms of annual maxima values. By comparing the future (2070-2099) with the baseline period (1961-1990), all GCMs project a decrease of mean annual rainfall (similar to 30%) and an increase of mean annual temperature (similar to 40%). However, in terms of annual maxima (of rainfall and discharge) the results are found to be dependent on the selected GCM and downscaling method. On one hand, through the application of the delta change method, both GCMs project a decrease in the flood frequency curves. On the other hand, if the quantile mapping downscaling method is considered, the Hadley Center Coupled Model 3 projects a decrease in the frequency of annual maxima discharge; the opposite occurs for the Parallel Climate Model. The hydrological characteristics of the study catchments play an important role in the assessment of the climate change impacts. For that, the need to use ensemble GCM results and multiple downscaling methods is underlined. (C) 2014 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Yan, Kun; Tarpanelli, Angelica; Bálint, Gábor; Moramarco, Tommaso; Baldassarre, Giuliano Di, 2014, Exploring the potential of SRTM topography and radar altimetry to support flood propagation modeling_ Danube case study,
Journal of hydrologic engineering 20 (2014). doi_10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001018,
DOI: 10.1061%2F(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0001018
Abstract
Flood inundation modeling is one of the essential steps in flood hazard mapping. However, the ...
Flood inundation modeling is one of the essential steps in flood hazard mapping. However, the desirable input and calibration data for model building and evaluation are not sufficient or unavailable in many rivers and floodplains of the world. A potential opportunity to fill this gap is offered nowadays by global earth observation data, which can be obtained freely (or at low cost), such as the shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM) and radar altimetry. However, the actual usefulness of these data is still poorly investigated. This study attempts to assess the value of SRTM topography and radar altimetry in supporting flood-level predictions in data-poor areas. To this end, a hydraulic model of a 150-km reach of the Danube River was built by using SRTM topography as input data and radar altimetry of the 2006 flood event as calibration data. The model was then used to simulate the 2007 flood event and evaluated against water levels measured in four stream gauge stations. Model evaluation allows the investigation of the usefulness and limitations of SRTM topography and radar altimetry in supporting hydraulic modeling of floods.
Tayfur, Gökmen; Zucco, Graziano; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso, 2014, Coupling soil moisture and precipitation observations for predicting hourly runoff at small catchment scale,
Journal of hydrology (Amst.) 510 (2014): 363–371. doi_10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.12.045,
DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.jhydrol.2013.12.045
Abstract
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Corato, Giovanni; Ammari, Abdelhadi; Moramarco, Tommaso, 2014, Conventional Point-Velocity Records and Surface Velocity Observations for Estimating High Flow Discharge,
Entropy (Basel, Online) 16 (2014): 5546–5559. doi_10.3390/e16105546,
DOI: 10.3390%2Fe16105546
Abstract
Flow velocity measurements using point-velocity meters are normally obtained by sampling one, two or three ...
Flow velocity measurements using point-velocity meters are normally obtained by sampling one, two or three velocity points per vertical profile. During high floods their use is inhibited due to the difficulty of sampling in lower portions of the flow area. Nevertheless, the application of standard methods allows estimation of a parameter, alpha, which depends on the energy slope and the Manning roughness coefficient. During high floods, monitoring of velocity can be accomplished by sampling the maximum velocity, u(max), only, which can be used to estimate the mean flow velocity, u(m), by applying the linear entropy relationship depending on the parameter, M, estimated on the basis of historical observed pairs (u(m), u(max)). In this context, this work attempts to analyze if a correlation between alpha and M holds, so that the monitoring for high flows can be addressed by exploiting information from standard methods. A methodology is proposed to estimate M from alpha, by coupling the "historical" information derived by standard methods, and "new" information from the measurement of u(max) surmised at later times. Results from four gauged river sites of different hydraulic and geometric characteristics have shown the robust estimation of M based on alpha.
Alvisi S., Barbetta S., Franchini M., Melone F. Moramarco T., 2014, Comparing grey formulations of the velocity-area method and entropy method for discharge estimation with uncertainty,
Journal of hydroinformatics (Online) 16 (2014): 797–811. doi_10.2166/hydro.2013.160,
DOI: 10.2166%2Fhydro.2013.160
Abstract
Two methods, namely the velocity-area method and the entropy method, for assessing with uncertainty discharge ...
Two methods, namely the velocity-area method and the entropy method, for assessing with uncertainty discharge measurements at gauged river sites are analysed and compared; uncertainty is represented through the grey number technique. Two different approaches for the "greyification" of both methods are presented herein. In the first approach, the uncertainty affecting each measurement used to estimate the discharge is characterized by means of a grey number_ all the grey uncertainty components are then combined through the grey mathematic. In the second approach, greyification is applied to the relationship expressing the total uncertainty on the discharge measurement provided by the EN ISO 748 guidelines.
Results of the application of the proposed methods to measurement data pertaining to three different gauged sections of the Tiber river, in central Italy, show that the first greyification approach leads to a broader discharge uncertainty estimate with respect to the second. Furthermore, being the greyification approach and the flow area quantification the same, the velocity-area and entropy methods provide nearly the same estimate of the uncertainty affecting the discharge measurements, i.e. the grey discharges provided by the two methods are very similar. This testifies in favour of the entropy method, which is simpler than the other from an operative viewpoint.
Pierleoni, Arnaldo; Camici, Stefania; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso; Casadei, Stefano, 2014, Climate change and decision support systems for water resource management,
Procedia engineering 70 (2014): 1324–1333. doi_10.1016/j.proeng.2014.02.146,
DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.proeng.2014.02.146
Abstract
The management of water resources always requires more and diverse approaches in which multiple skills ...
The management of water resources always requires more and diverse approaches in which multiple skills and capacities are nested together, especially when critical situations are taken into account, such as climate change scenarios. The SimBaT software is a Decision Support Systems for water resource allocation and management. In this study, SimBaT is applied to the Montedoglio reservoir in the Tiber River Basin (Central Italy). The case study highlights how this methodology can be applied for a proactive management of critical scenarios in periods of drought due to climate change hypothesis. © 2013 The Authors.
Camici, S., Barbetta, S., Moramarco, T., 2014, Case study_ the levee failure along the Foenna stream on 1st January 2006 causing the flooding of Sinalunga urban area (Tuscany region, central Italy).,
Journal of flood risk management (2014). doi_10.1111/jfr3.12137.,
DOI: 10.1111%2Fjfr3.12137.
Abstract
The levee failure event occurred along the Foenna stream (Tuscany region, central Italy) on 1st ...
The levee failure event occurred along the Foenna stream (Tuscany region, central Italy) on 1st January 2006 is here investigated.
The levee body vulnerability to seepage is first assessed through a procedure here proposed and based on a simple vulnerability index. In particular, the index is defined for dimensionless geometry of levee body and related to the probability of occurrence of the levee seepage through the identification of ?fragility curves?. The procedure can be applied for embankments whose soil hydraulic parameters are unknown or partly known. The obtained results indicate that the investigated levee, if intact, would not have to be vulnerable to seepage for the flood event occurred on January 2006 when, instead, the failure happened.
The analysis shows that the failure was likely due to the presence of burrows at middle height of levee body riverside drawing the flow into the embankment triggering the piping phenomenon.
This study indicates that to prevent the failure due to burrows presence, the levees must be actively maintained through both the burrows closing and the capture of wild animals. Finally, considering that scarce data are usually available for this type of events worldwide, this paper aims also to illustrate the collected data in terms of_ maximum stage recorded at a gauged section close to the failure location, status of the levee, evolution of the failure event.
Brocca, Luca; Zucco, Graziano; Mittelbach, Heidi; Moramarco, Tommaso; Seneviratne, Sonia I., 2014, Absolute versus temporal anomaly and percent of saturation soil moisture spatial variability for six networks worldwide,
Water resources research 50 (2014): 5560–5576. doi_10.1002/2014WR015684,
DOI: 10.1002%2F2014WR015684
Abstract
[object Object] ...
[object Object]
Manfreda, Salvatore; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso; Melone, Florisa L.; Sheffield, Justin, 2014, A physically based approach for the estimation of root-zone soil moisture from surface measurements,
Hydrology and earth system sciences 18 (2014): 1199–1212. doi_10.5194/hess-18-1199-2014,
DOI: 10.5194%2Fhess-18-1199-2014
Abstract
In the present work, we developed a new formulation for the estimation of the soil ...
In the present work, we developed a new formulation for the estimation of the soil moisture in the root zone based on the measured value of soil moisture at the surface. It was derived from a simplified soil water balance equation for semiarid environments that provides a closed form of the relationship between the root zone and the surface soil moisture with a limited number of physically consistent parameters. The method sheds lights on the mentioned relationship with possible applications in the use of satellite remote sensing retrievals of soil moisture. The proposed approach was used on soil moisture measurements taken from the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) and the Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) databases. The AMMA network was designed with the aim to monitor three so-called mesoscale sites (super sites) located in Benin, Mali, and Niger using point measurements at different locations. Thereafter the new formulation was tested on three additional stations of SCAN in the state of New Mexico (US). Both databases are ideal for the application of such method, because they provide a good description of the soil moisture dynamics at the surface and the root zone using probes installed at different depths. The model was first applied with parameters assigned based on the physical characteristics of several sites. These results highlighted the potential of the methodology, providing a good description of the root-zone soil moisture. In the second part of the paper, the model performances were compared with those of the well-known exponential filter. Results show that this new approach provides good performances after calibration with a set of parameters consistent with the physical characteristics of the investigated areas. The limited number of parameters and their physical interpretation makes the procedure appealing for further applications to other regions. © Author(s) 2014.
Santaloia F.*, Polemio M.*, Limoni P.P.*, Zuffianò L.E.*, Liotta D.**, Casarano D.*, Ardizzone F.*, Dragone V.*, 2014, RAPPORTO DI FATTIBILITÀ TECNICA – 2 DEL SITO PUGLIESE “SANTA CESAREA TERME (LE)” RISORSA GEOTERMICA DI BASSA ENTALPIA,
2014,
Abstract
- ...
-
E. Santi, C. Tarantino, V. Amici, G. Bacaro, P. Blonda, L. Borselli, M. Rossi, S. Tozzi, D. Torri, 2014, Fine-scale spatial distribution of biomass using satellite images,
Journal of Ecology and the Natural Environment 6 (2014): 75–86. doi_10.5897/JENE2013.0416,
DOI: 10.5897%2FJENE2013.0416
D. Torri, J. Poesen, 2014, A review of topographic threshold conditions for gully head development in different environments,
Earth Science Review 130 (2014): 73–85. doi_10.1016/j.earscirev.2013.12.006,
DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.earscirev.2013.12.006
Abstract
Gully head development represents a significant geomorphic process in a wide range of environments. Several ...
Gully head development represents a significant geomorphic process in a wide range of environments. Several studies investigated the critical topographic conditions, expressed by local slope gradient (s) and drainage area (A), controlling the development and position of gully heads in various landscapes. This review examines over 39 publications. After critically analysing the reported threshold data and after standardisation of the procedure to determine the critical topographic conditions for gully head development, i.e., sAb N k or s N kA- b some data sets were discarded because they were not compatible with the standard presentation of data as reported by the majority of studies. Hence, a detailed analysis was made of 63 reported s-A relationships for overland-flow induced gully-heads extracted from data sets collected in various parts of the world. A first examination of the behaviour of both the exponent b and the threshold coefficient k, which reflects the resistance of the site to gully head development, shows clear effects of land use on the value of k whereas the value of b does not seem to be affected. Further analyses are conducted of the recalculated threshold coefficients k, for two predefined constant values of the exponent b. The lowest k-values were observed for cropland followed by values for rangeland, pasture and forest. Effects of climate, rock fragment cover at the soil surface and water storage ca- pacity of the gully catchment on k-values were also shown. The most interesting result is that for a given and con- stant b-value, the threshold coefficient k can be predicted using soil and vegetation characteristics, based on the NRCS Runoff Curve Number values and on surface rock fragment cover.
Furthermore, the underlying physical processes explaining the value of the exponent b were analysed. Finally, a physically-based model, well anchored in the established theories, is proposed as a first step to predict gully head development in various landscapes and under changing environmental conditions. The results of this review clearly show that better and more reliable models can be built, including effects of land use, climate changes and natural disasters.
Mergili, Martin; Marchesini, Ivan; Rossi, Mauro; Rossi, Mauro; Guzzetti, Fausto; Fellin, Wolfgang, 2014, Spatially distributed three-dimensional slope stability modelling in a raster GIS,
Geomorphology (Amst.) 206 (2014): 178–195. doi_10.1016/j.geomorph.2013.10.008,
DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.geomorph.2013.10.008
Abstract
We present a GRASS GIS implementation of a three-dimensional slope stability model capable of dealing ...
We present a GRASS GIS implementation of a three-dimensional slope stability model capable of dealing with shallow and deep-seated slope failures, r.rotstab. It exploits a modified version of the revised Hovland method and evaluates the slope stability over a large number of randomly selected slip surfaces, ellipsoidal or truncated in shape. For each raster cell in the modelling domain, the factor of safety is taken from the most critical slip surface. This results in an overview of potentially unstable regions without showing the individual sliding areas. Furthermore, the model produces a susceptibility index for each cell, based on the proportion of slip surfaces with a low factor of safety. We test the model in the Collazzone area, Umbria, central Italy where detailed information on shallow and deep-seated landslides, morphology and lithology is available. The rate of true predictions (landslide plus non-landslide) ranges from 54.7 to 81.2% for shallow landslides and from 58.5 to 87.4% for deep-seated landslides, depending on the adjustment of the uncertain geotechnical parameters. In the same order, the rate of true landslide predictions decreases from 80.2 to 19.9% (shallow) and from 64.3 to 3.6% (deep-seated) so that an increase of the true landslide prediction rate can only be achieved at the cost of a significant increase of the false alarm rate. The results for shallow landslides are very similar to those yielded with the infinite slope stability model in terms of the minimum factor of safety, but differ substantially in terms of the spatial patterns. The evaluation of the landslide susceptibility index yields areas under the ROC curves of 0.68-0.70 (shallow landslides, r.rotstab), 0.61-0.65 (shallow landslides, infinite slope stability model) and 0.59-0.63 (deep-seated landslides). We conclude that the r.rotstab model outperforms the infinite slope stability model. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.
Paola Salvati, Francesca Ardizzone, Francesco Bucci, Marco Donnini, Federica Fiorucci, Paola Giostrella, Fausto Guzzetti, Elisabetta Napolitano, Michele Santangelo., 2014, Valutazione economica dei dissesti idrogeologici in Italia_ alcuni casi di studio di frane con grave impatto su strutture ed infrastrutture in Italia.,
2014,
Abstract
Il rapporto presenta i risultati del lavoro di ricerca ed organizzazione dei dati sui costi ...
Il rapporto presenta i risultati del lavoro di ricerca ed organizzazione dei dati sui costi causati da eventi di frana avvenuti in Italia. Lo scopo del lavoro è stato quello di elaborare una procedura di archiviazione dei dati disponibili standardizzata e riproducibile. Data la numerosità degli eventi di frana, la loro diffusa presenza sul territorio e la loro complessità fenomenologica, per questa ricerca si è resa necessaria la selezione di alcuni casi di studio su cui impiantare la procedura di archiviazione ed elaborazione dei dati relativi ai danni e alla stima dei costi. Per rendere il quadro conoscitivo più esaustivo possibile, si sono selezionati dei casi di studio rappresentativi dei diversi impatti che i movimenti franosi possono causare sul territorio e sulle strutture ed infrastrutture. La selezione degli eventi è stata condizionata dalla disponibilità ed accessibilità ai dati e dalla distribuzione geografica degli eventi sul territorio. Tra i casi disponibili la scelta è ricaduta tra quelli più recenti. I casi di studio selezionati hanno riguardato la valutazione dei costi relativi ai_ (i) danni alla viabilità minore dovuti a frane diffuse causate da eventi meteo climatici intensi in aree montane_ il caso dei comuni di Roccafluvione ed Acquasanta Terme in provincia di Ascoli Piceno, (ii) danni all'edificato di un centro abitato storico dovuti ad una frana complessa e i costi della conseguente delocalizzazione dell'abitato: il caso della frazione di Cavallerizzo, (iii) danni da frana lungo una strada statale e la conseguente interruzione del traffico_ il caso della strada ex SS 447 in località Rizzico nel comune di Pisciotta, (iv) danni alle strutture ed infrastrutture dovuti a franamenti diffusi indotti da eventi meteoclimatici
S. Raia (1), M. Alvioli (1), M. Rossi (1), R. L. Baum (2), J. W. Godt (2), F. Guzzetti (1), 2014, TRIGRS-P,
2014,
Abstract
Software e manuale utente ...
Software e manuale utente
Mauro Rossi [1,2], Marco Donnini [1,2], Francesco Frondini [2], Fausto Guzzetti [1], 2014, Stima dell’infiltrazione efficace nell’area alpina ed appenninica tramite dati aperti e software open source,
GIT (Geosciences and Information Technologies) 2014, Montefalco (Pg), 16 - 18 Giugno 2014,
Abstract
Valori di infiltrazione efficace (IE) sono necessari per stimare la quantità di acqua che fluisce ...
Valori di infiltrazione efficace (IE) sono necessari per stimare la quantità di acqua che fluisce nel suolo. Esistono diversi metodi per stimare l'IE e le differenti componenti del ciclo idrologico. Inoltre esistono diversi modelli di bilancio idrologico a differenti scale (oraria, giornaliera, mensile, annua) e con diversi gradi di complessità. In questo lavoro - con l'obiettivo di stimare i valori di IE nell'area delle Alpi e dell'Appennino centrale - abbiamo implementato un codice in R (un software open source di statistica ed elaborazione grafici) basato su un software di pubblico dominio scritto in Java da McCabe e Markstrom (2007). Il codice effettua un'analisi spaziale del bilancio mensile seguendo l'approccio sviluppato da Thornthwaite (1948) e rivisto da Thornthwaite e Mater (1954). Gli input del modello sono_ (1) le temperature medie mensili e le precipitazioni medie mensili mondiali, disponibili dal sito web dell'IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), (2) il modello digitale del terreno del globo terrestre ASTER GDEM disponibile dai siti dell'ERSDAC (Earth Remote Sensing Data Analysis Center e della NASA, (3) i dati dei tematismi del suolo dell'Eurasia provenienti dall'European Soil Database (v2.0), disponibili dal sito web del JRC (Joint Research Center). Il bilancio idrologico è stato effettuato all'interno di un grid 0.5° x 0.5°(corrispondente al grid dell'IPCC) nelle area alpina e dell'Appennino centrale. Per ciascuna cella all'interno delle due aree di studio e per ogni variabile in uscita dal modello, sono stati valutati i livelli di incertezza calcolando i valori minimi, massimi e medi propagando nel modello l'incertezza associata ai parametri di input (dati climatici, morfologici e dei tematismi del suolo). Particolare interesse è stato posto nei valori di IE stimati dal modello. Tali valori di IE nell'area dell'Appennino Centrale sono stati confrontati con i valori di IE stimati da Boni et al. (1986). I valori calcolati sono risultati confrontabili, anche se alcune differenze restano visibili. Riteniamo che tali differenze siano in primo luogo funzione della risoluzione dei dati utilizzati in input del modello, ma anche funzione di un diverso schema di calcolo dell'IE. Riteniamo comunque che il modello proposto sia utile alla stima delle componenti di un bilancio idrogeologico a scala regionale e che l'utilizzo di dati aperti e software open source ne permetta l'applicazione in aree differenti all'interno del continente Euro-Asiatico.
Bibliografia
Boni, C., P. Bono, and G. Capelli. "Schema Idrogeologico dell'Italia Centrale." Mem. Soc. Geol. Ita. 35 (1986): 991-1012.
McCabe, G.J., and Markstrom, S.L., 2007, A monthly water-balance model driven by a graphical user interface_ U.S. Geological Survey Open-File report 2007-1088, 6 p.
R Core Team, (2012) "R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing", R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. ISBN} 3-900051-07-0.
Thornthwaite C.W., (1948) An approach toward a rational classification of climate. Geog Rev 38(1):55-94.
Thornthwaite C.W., Mather J.R., (1957) Instructions and tables for computing potential evapotranspiration and the water balance. Publ Climatol 10(3).
LOIACONO P., AMORUSO G., BRUNETTI M., DRAGONE V., GUZZETTI F., PARISE M., PERUCCACCI S., TRABACE M., VENNARI C. & VESSIA G., 2014, Soglie pluviometriche per l’innesco di fenomeni franosi alla scala nazionale e regionale_ il caso del Sub-Appennino Dauno (Puglia settentrionale).,
Convegno "Nuovi studi e ricerche per la definizione della pericolosità geomorfologica in Appennino Dauno", pp. 147–150, Lucera, 7 giugno 2013,
Daniela Pasella (Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche - Istituto sull'Inquinamento Atmosferico), Luisa Pierantonelli (Ministero dell'Ambiente e della Tutela del Territorio e del Mare), 2014, Rapporto sullo stato delle conoscenze scientifiche su impatti, vulnerabilità ed adattamento ai cambiamenti climatici in Italia.,
2014,
Fausto Guzzetti, Roberto Zoboli, Paola Salvati, Cinzia Bianchi, Massimiliano Mazzanti, 2014, Quanto sono costate e quanto costano le calamità idrogeologiche in Italia?,
Calamità idrogeologiche_ aspetti economici, pp. 13–31, Roma, 22 marzo 2013,
Fausto Guzzetti, Paola Salvati, Cinzia Bianchi, 2014, Polaris, Popolazione a Rischio da Frana e da Inondazione in Italia,
2014,
P. Salvati, C. Bianchi, F. Fiorucci, P. Giostrella, I. Marchesini, F. Guzzetti, 2014, Perception of flood and landslide risk in Italy_ a preliminary analysis,
Natural hazards and earth system sciences (Print) 14 (2014): 2589–2603. doi_10.5194/nhess-14-2589-2014,
DOI: 10.5194%2Fnhess-14-2589-2014
Abstract
Inundations and landslides are widespread phenomena in Italy, where they cause severe damage and pose ...
Inundations and landslides are widespread phenomena in Italy, where they cause severe damage and pose a threat to the population. Little is known about the public perception of landslide and flood risk. This is surprising, as an accurate perception is important for the successful implementation of many risk reduction or adaptation strategies. In an attempt to address this gap, we have conducted two national surveys to measure the perception of landslide and flood risk amongst the population of Italy. The surveys were conducted in 2012 and 2013, and consisted of approximately 3100 computer-assisted telephone interviews for each survey. The samples of the interviewees were statistically representative for a national-scale quantitative assessment. The interviewees were asked questions designed to obtain information on (i) their perception of natural, environmental, and technological risks, (ii) direct experience or general knowledge of the occurrence of landslides and floods in their municipality, (iii) perception of the possible threat posed by landslides and floods to their safety, (iv) general knowledge on the number of victims affected by landslides or floods, and on (v) the factors that the interviewees considered important for controlling landslide and flood risks in Italy. The surveys revealed that the population of Italy fears technological risks more than natural risks. Of the natural risks, earthquakes were considered more dangerous than floods, landslides, and volcanic eruptions. Examination of the temporal and geographical distributions of the responses revealed that the occurrence of recent damaging events influenced risk perception locally, and that the perception persisted longer for earthquakes and decreased more rapidly for landslides and floods. We explain the difference by the diverse consequences of the risks. The interviewees considered inappropriate land management the main cause of landslide and food risk, followed by illegal construction, abandonment of the territory, and climate change. Comparison of the risk perception with actual measures of landslide and flood risk, including the number of fatal events, the number of fatalities, and the mortality rates, revealed that in most of the Italian regions, the perception of the threat did not match the long-term risk posed to the population by landslides and floods. This outcome points to a need to foster an understanding of the public towards landslide and flood hazards and risks in Italy.
Mirabella F.(1,2) and Bucci F.(2) and Cardinali M.(2) and Santangelo M.(2) and Guzzetti F.(2), 2014, Morpho-structural features of extensional basins revealed from aerial photographs interpretation and structural data in the Northern Apennines (Italy),
The future of Italian Geosciences, SGI-SIMP, Milano, 10-12 Settembre 2014,
Michele Santangelo, Mauro Cardinali, Francesco Bucci, Francesco Mirabella, 2014, Morpho-structural evidences of bedding and faults in Montefalco area,
GIT, 2014, 2014,
Raia S.; Alvioli M.; Rossi M.; Baum R.L.; Godt J.W.; Guzzetti F., 2014, Improving predictive power of physically based rainfall-induced shallow landslide models_ A probabilistic approach,
Geoscientific model development (Print) 7 (2014): 495–514. doi_10.5194/gmd-7-495-2014,
DOI: 10.5194%2Fgmd-7-495-2014
Abstract
Distributed models to forecast the spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides are based ...
Distributed models to forecast the spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides are based on deterministic laws. These models extend spatially the static stability models adopted in geotechnical engineering, and adopt an infinite-slope geometry to balance the resisting and the driving forces acting on the sliding mass. An infiltration model is used to determine how rainfall changes pore-water conditions, modulating the local stability/instability conditions. A problem with the operation of the existing models lays in the difficulty in obtaining accurate values for the several variables that describe the material properties of the slopes. The problem is particularly severe when the models are applied over large areas, for which sufficient information on the geotechnical and hydrological conditions of the slopes is not generally available. To help solve the problem, we propose a probabilistic Monte Carlo approach to the distributed modeling of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. For this purpose, we have modified the transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional slope-stability analysis (TRIGRS) code. The new code (TRIGRS-P) adopts a probabilistic approach to compute, on a cell-by-cell basis, transient pore-pressure changes and related changes in the factor of safety due to rainfall infiltration. Infiltration is modeled using analytical solutions of partial differential equations describing one-dimensional vertical flow in isotropic, homogeneous materials. Both saturated and unsaturated soil conditions can be considered. TRIGRS-P copes with the natural variability inherent to the mechanical and hydrological properties of the slope materials by allowing values of the TRIGRS model input parameters to be sampled randomly from a given probability distribution. The range of variation and the mean value of the parameters can be determined by the usual methods used for preparing the TRIGRS input parameters. The outputs of several model runs obtained varying the input parameters are analyzed statistically, and compared to the original (deterministic) model output. The comparison suggests an improvement of the predictive power of the model of about 10% and 16% in two small test areas, that is, the Frontignano (Italy) and the Mukilteo (USA) areas. We discuss the computational requirements of TRIGRS-P to determine the potential use of the numerical model to forecast the spatial and temporal occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in very large areas, extending for several hundreds or thousands of square kilometers. Parallel execution of the code using a simple process distribution and the message passing interface (MPI) on multi-processor machines was successful, opening the possibly of testing the use of TRIGRS-P for the operational forecasting of rainfall-induced shallow landslides over large regions. © Author(s) 2014.
Daniela Pasella (Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche - Istituto sull'Inquinamento Atmosferico), Luisa Pierantonelli (Ministero dell'Ambiente e della Tutela del Territorio e del Mare)., 2014, Elementi per una Strategia Nazionale di Adattamento ai Cambiamenti Climatici.,
2014,
F. Bucci, M. Santangelo, M. Cardinali, F. Fiorucci, F. Guzzetti, 2014, Distribution of landslide volume in tectonically-controlled mountain landscapes,
Slope Tectonics Conference, 8-12 September,
Abstract
Despite faults are known to influence rock slope stability, the interactions between fault zones and ...
Despite faults are known to influence rock slope stability, the interactions between fault zones and slope deformations are poorly documented in regional scale studies, and their relationships remain poorly understood. In this work, we define the possible role of Quaternary faults in favouring slope instability in a tectonically-controlled landscape. We analyse the distribution of landslides in the Peloritani Mountains, NE Sicily, Southern Italy, a tectonically active region where landslides are abundant. For the purpose, we analyse a set of thematic layers, including (i) a detailed landslide inventory map prepared through the visual inspection of aerial photographs of different vintages, (ii) a map of recent faults and associated triangular facets, also identified through the visual interpretation of aerial photographs, (iii) geological and geomorphological data, and (iv) maps showing morphometric indices obtained from a 2 m × 2 m DEM. Geomorphological and photo-geological mapping revealed a spatial association between the gravitational displacements and the tectonically-controlled landscape modifications conditioned by the presence of faults crossing the mountain slopes. We find that the total landslide volume is dominated by a few large landslides clustered where high local relief and main recent fault segments coexist. Based on our findings, we hypothesize that the distribution of landslide volume is a proxy for the mid- to long-term activity of the faults. Our results highlight the role of the large-scale slope failures on the geomorphological evolution of a tectonically active area, and suggest a positive feedback between tectonic and gravitational deformations in active mountain belts.
Mondini A.C.; Viero A.; Cavalli M.; Marchi L.; Herrera G.; Guzzetti F., 2014, Comparison of event landslide inventories_ The Pogliaschina catchment test case, Italy,
Natural hazards and earth system sciences (Print) 14 (2014): 1749–1759. doi_10.5194/nhess-14-1749-2014,
DOI: 10.5194%2Fnhess-14-1749-2014
Abstract
Event landslide inventory maps document the extent of populations of landslides caused by a single ...
Event landslide inventory maps document the extent of populations of landslides caused by a single natural trigger, such as an earthquake, an intense rainfall event, or a rapid snowmelt event. Event inventory maps are important for landslide susceptibility and hazard modelling, and prove useful to manage residual risk after a landslide-triggering event. Standards for the preparation of event landslide inventory maps are lacking. Traditional methods are based on the visual interpretation of stereoscopic aerial photography, aided by field surveys. New and emerging techniques exploit remotely sensed data and semi-automatic algorithms. We describe the production and comparison of two independent event inventories prepared for the Pogliaschina catchment, Liguria, Northwest Italy. The two inventories show landslides triggered by an intense rainfall event on 25 October 2011, and were prepared through the visual interpretation of digital aerial photographs taken 3 days and 33 days after the event, and by processing a very-high-resolution image taken by the WorldView-2 satellite 4 days after the event. We compare the two inventories qualitatively and quantitatively using established and new metrics, and we discuss reasons for the differences between the two landslide maps. We expect that the results of our work can help in deciding on the most appropriate method to prepare reliable event inventory maps, and outline the advantages and the limitations of the different approaches. © 2014 Author(s).
Guzzetti F., Cardinali M., Bucci F., Santangelo M., Fiorucci F., Salvati P., Alvioli M., 2014, Carta inventario delle frane d’evento da osservazioni di campagna, area di Acquasanta Terme e Roccafluvione,
2014,
Abstract
Carta inventario di evento ...
Carta inventario di evento
A. Manconi 1, F. Casu 2, F. Ardizzone 4, M. Bonano 2, M. Cardinali 4, C. De Luca 2,3, E. Gueguen 5, I. Marchesini 4, M. Parise 6, C. Vennari 6, R. Lanari 2, and F. Guzzetti 4, 2014, Brief Communication_ Rapid mapping of landslide events_ the 3 December 2013 Montescaglioso landslide, Italy,
Natural hazards and earth system sciences (Print) 14 (2014): 1835–1841. doi_10.5194/nhess-14-1835-2014,
DOI: 10.5194%2Fnhess-14-1835-2014
Abstract
We present an approach to measure 3-D surface deformations caused by large, rapid-moving landslides using ...
We present an approach to measure 3-D surface deformations caused by large, rapid-moving landslides using the amplitude information of high-resolution, X-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images. We exploit SAR data captured by the COSMO-SkyMed satellites to measure the deformation produced by the 3 December 2013 Montescaglioso landslide, southern Italy. The deformation produced by the deep-seated landslide exceeded 10 m and caused the disruption of a main road, a few homes and commercial buildings. The results open up the possibility of obtaining 3-D surface deformation maps shortly after the occurrence of large, rapid-moving landslides using high-resolution SAR data.
VESSIA G., PARISE M., BRUNETTI M.T., PERUCCACCI S., ROSSI M., VENNARI C. & GUZZETTI F., 2014, Automated reconstruction of rainfall events responsible for shallow landslides,
Natural hazards and earth system sciences (Print) 14 (2014): 2399–2408.,
U. Pernice, P. Salvati, F. Fiorucci, C. Bianchi, F. Guzzetti, 2014, Approaches to communication in response to geo-hydrological risk_ the European FP7 LAMPRE project and the Italian POLARIS web initiative,
IDRC DAVOS 2014 "Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice", pp. 563–566, Davos CH, 24-28 Agosto 2014,
Abstract
In a hyper-connected and social-networked, world increasingly vulnerable to geo-hydrological risks,
communication plays a vital role ...
In a hyper-connected and social-networked, world increasingly vulnerable to geo-hydrological risks,
communication plays a vital role in all phases of the disaster cycle. Scientific and technological innovation generating new
products, tools, and services to cope with geo-hydrological events (e.g., landslides, debris flows and floods) must rely on
effective communication strategies to address information needs of audiences with different needs through integrated
communication channels. The Istituto di Ricerca per la Protezione Idrogeologica (IRPI), of the Italian Consiglio Nazionale delle
Ricerche (CNR), is conducting two complementary initiatives contributing in different ways and geographical scales to raise
awareness about geo-hydrological risks, and their impact on society. At European level, IRPI is coordinating the 2-year
collaborative research and development project LAMPRE (LAndslide Modelling and tools for vulnerability assessment
Preparedness and REcovery management) to advance the limited understanding of vulnerability of built-up areas and
infrastructures to event landslides, enhancing landslide risk mitigation/preparedness efforts, and post-event-landslide
recovery/reconstruction activities through the exploitation of innovative Earth Observation based products and services.
LAMPRE adopts a communication strategy to inform diverse organizations dealing with the adverse effects of landslides how the project results can improve their ability (i) to forecast the impact of landslide events, (ii) to assess the vulnerability to landslides of properties, infrastructures and the population, and (iii) to implement effective recovery and reconstruction plans. At national level, IRPI gathers information on landslides and floods with direct human consequences (e.g., deaths, missing persons, injured people) with the aim of evaluating the geo-hydrological risk for the Italian population. In this framework, IRPI has implemented the POLARIS website which publishes different information including_ periodical reports on landslide and flood risk to the population of Italy, data and analyses on specific damaging events, and blog-posts on landslide and flood events encouraging citizens' participation to crowd-sourcing information.
Michele Santangelo, Francesco Mirabella , Francesco Bucci, Ivan Marchesini, Mauro Cardinali, Fausto Guzzetti, 2014, Application of remote sensing data and GIS techniques to the study of the morpho-structural features of extensional basins_ an example from the Montefalco area (northern Apennines, Italy).,
GIT, 2014, Montefalco, 16-18 Giugno, 2014,
Abstract
In areas undergoing extensional faulting, the investigation of the tectono-sedimentary evolution of fault-controlled basins through ...
In areas undergoing extensional faulting, the investigation of the tectono-sedimentary evolution of fault-controlled basins through the analysis of morpho-structural features can provide valuable information on the space-time evolution of the active deformation. To this extent, remote sensing data provide a precious source of information that can successfully integrate traditionally collected field data.
In this work, we focus on the Montefalco ridge, which topographically separates the Gualdo Cattaneo and Foligno valleys and which represents an inversion of relief being composed of fluvial sands of conglomerates now uplifted more than 200 m above the present day alluvial plain. We carried out a systematic aerial photo-interpretation of two sets of aerial photographs, one flown in 1977 (colour) and one flown in 1997 (black and white). We collected a set of photo-geological data, including Quaternary faults, bedding traces (i.e. the intersection lines between the geological bedding and the topographical surface), and lithological boundaries. Data were transferred to obtain a 1_10,000 scale map. All the aerial photographs were orthorectified to reduce mapping errors when transferring information from the aerial photographs to the topographic base map. In particular, we exploited the i.ortho.photo tool of GRASS GIS, using as data in input a 1m resolution orthophoto taken in 2006 and available as WMS service on the National Cartographic Portal, and a 10m resolution DEM. We then used the GRASS GIS tool geobed.py (http://geomorphology.irpi.cnr.it/tools/gis-and-interpretation-of-aerial-photographs/geobed.py/view) to obtain the bedding attitude starting from the bedding traces and the 10m resolution DEM. Using the same approach we also obtained the attitude of the fault planes. We carried out field checks to validate the photo-geological information. Our results show that aerial photo-interpretation overcomes the main limitations of the traditional field mapping approach since it allows collecting spatially distributed information on fault planes and bedding attitude. The integration of the traditional field structural geology approach and the photo-geological information provides a more complete dataset, which allows making inferences on the tectono-stratigraphic evolution and deformation pattern of the studied basin.
We believe this approach can have several other applications in geosciences, such as slope stability analyses, validation of geological profiles, exploration geology, and morpho-tectonic studies.
Faith E Taylor (1), Michele Santangelo (2), Ivan Marchesini (2), Bruce D Malamud (1), and Fausto Guzzetti (2), 2014, A Tool for Modelling the Probability of Landslides Impacting Road Networks,
Geophysical Research Abstracts 16 (2014).,
Abstract
Triggers such as earthquakes or heavy rainfall can result in hundreds to thousands of landslides ...
Triggers such as earthquakes or heavy rainfall can result in hundreds to thousands of landslides occurring across
a region within a short space of time. These landslides can in turn result in blockages across the road network,
impacting how people move about a region. Here, we show the development and application of a semi-stochastic
model to simulate how landslides intersect with road networks during a triggered landslide event. This was performed
by creating "synthetic" triggered landslide inventory maps and overlaying these with a road network map
to identify where road blockages occur.
Our landslide-road model has been applied to two regions_ (i) the Collazzone basin (79 km2
) in Central Italy where
422 landslides were triggered by rapid snowmelt in January 1997, (ii) the Oat Mountain quadrangle (155 km2
) in
California, USA, where 1,350 landslides were triggered by the Northridge Earthquake (M = 6.7) in January 1994.
For both regions, detailed landslide inventory maps for the triggered events were available, in addition to maps of
landslide susceptibility and road networks of primary, secondary and tertiary roads.
To create "synthetic" landslide inventory maps, landslide areas (AL) were randomly selected from a threeparameter
inverse gamma probability density function, consisting of a power law decay of about -2.4 for medium
and large values of AL and an exponential rollover for small values of AL. The number of landslide areas selected
was based on the observed density of landslides (number of landslides km-2
) in the triggered event inventories.
Landslide shapes were approximated as ellipses, where the ratio of the major and minor axes varies with AL.
Landslides were then dropped over the region semi-stochastically, conditioned by a landslide susceptibility map,
resulting in a synthetic landslide inventory map. The originally available landslide susceptibility maps did not take
into account susceptibility changes in the immediate vicinity of roads, therefore our landslide susceptibility map
was adjusted to further reduce the susceptibility near each road based on the road level (primary, secondary, tertiary).
For each model run, we superimposed the spatial location of landslide drops with the road network, and
recorded the number, size and location of road blockages recorded, along with landslides within 50 and 100 m of
the different road levels. Network analysis tools available in GRASS GIS were also applied to measure the impact
upon the road network in terms of connectivity. The model was performed 100 times in a Monte-Carlo simulation
for each region.
Initial results show reasonable agreement between model output and the observed landslide inventories in terms of
the number of road blockages. In Collazzone (length of road network = 153 km, landslide density = 5.2 landslides
km-2
), the median number of modelled road blockages over 100 model runs was 5 (±2.5 standard deviation)
compared to the mapped inventory observed number of 5 road blockages. In Northridge (length of road network =
780 km, landslide density = 8.7 landslides km-2
), the median number of modelled road blockages over 100 model
runs was 108 (±17.2 standard deviation) compared to the mapped inventory observed number of 48 road blockages.
As we progress with model development, we believe this semi-stochastic modelling approach will potentially aid
civil protection agencies to explore different scenarios of road network potential damage as the result of different
magnitude landslide triggering event scenarios.
Faith E Taylor (1), Michele Santangelo (2), Ivan Marchesini (2), Bruce D Malamud (1), and Fausto Guzzetti (2), 2014, A Tool for Modelling the Impact of Triggered Landslide Events on Road Networks,
AGU Fall meeting, San Francisco, USA, 15-19/12/2014,
Abstract
In the minutes to weeks after a landslide trigger such as an earthquake or heavy ...
In the minutes to weeks after a landslide trigger such as an earthquake or heavy rain, tens to thousands of landslides may occur across a region, resulting in simultaneous blockages across the road network, which can impact recovery efforts. In this paper, we show the development, application and confrontation with observed data, of a model to semi-stochastically simulate triggered landslide events and their impact on road network topologies. In this model, "synthetic" triggered landslide event inventories are created by randomly selecting landslide sizes and shapes from already established statistical distributions. The landslides are then semi-randomly distributed over the region's road network, where they are more or less likely to land based on a landslide susceptibility map. The number, size and network impact of the road blockages is then calculated. This process is repeated in a Monte Carlo type simulation to assess a range of scenarios. Due to the generally applicable statistical distributions used to create the synthetic triggered landslide event inventories and the relatively minimal data requirements to run the model, the model is theoretically applicable to many regions of the world where triggered landslide events occur. Current work focuses on applying the model to two regions_ (i) the Collazzone basin (79 km2) in Central Italy where 422 landslides were triggered by rapid snowmelt in January 1997, (ii) the Oat Mountain quadrangle (155 km2) in California, USA, where 1,350 landslides were triggered by the Northridge Earthquake (M = 6.7) in January 1994. When appropriate adjustments are made to susceptibility in the immediate vicinity of the roads, model results match reasonably well observations. In Collazzone (length of road = 153 km, landslide density = 5.2 landslides km-2), the median number of road blockages over 100 model runs was 5 (±2.5 s.d.), compared to the observed number of 5. In Northridge (length of road = 780 km, landslide density = 8.7 landslides km-2), the median number of road blockages over 100 model runs was 108 (±17.2 s.d.) compared to the observed number of 48. As model development progresses, we hope that this open source tool can be applied to other locations to aid civil protection agencies in exploring the potential impact to the road network of triggered landslide events.
Marco Donnini [1,4], Francesco Frondini [1], Jean-Luc Probst [2,3], Anne Probst [2,3], Carlo Cardellini [1], Stefano Caliro [5], Giovanni Chiodini [5], Ivan Marchesini [4], Fausto Guzzetti [4], 2014, A study on the gechemical processes that control the production and the consumption of atmospheric CO2 in Alpine region,
Deep Carbon Observatory Summer School 2014, Yellowstone Big Sky (Montana, U.S.A.), 14-18 Luglio 2014,
Abstract
On geological time-scales the CO2 fluxes from the solid Earth to the atmosphere mainly result ...
On geological time-scales the CO2 fluxes from the solid Earth to the atmosphere mainly result from volcanism and metamorphic-decarbonation processes, while the CO2 fluxes from atmosphere to solid Earth mainly depend on silicate and carbonate weathering, biogenic precipitation and removal of CaCO3 and volcanic gases - seawater interactions.
We show a balance for Alpine region between CO2 fixed by weathering and CO2 emitted by springs.
The dissolved load of streams originates from rain, pollution, evaporite dissolution, silicate and carbonate weathering. We quantified each contributions for 33 sampled rivers. Depending on time-scales we used different equations to quantificate the CO2 fixed by weathering.
The CO2 production was estimated from a database with composition of more than 1000 springs (both data from litterature and new data). For each point through an isotopic and mass balance approach we estimated_ Ccarb (carbon from carbonate dissolution), Cinf (atmospheric and biogenic CO2) and Cdeep (CO2 from deep degassing).
For each spring the flux of deep CO2 is given by Cdeep X Q/A, (Q: flow rate, A_ recharge area), or by Cdeep X IE, (IE: effective infltration, IE=Q/A). IE have been estimated using a water balance model.
The results shows_ deep-CO2 rich springs are located along the more important Alpine tectonic structures and in the basins external to the Alps, Alpine chain at the present seems to be a sink for atmospheric CO2 but it is probably a source on long term.
Faith Taylor (1), Michele Santangelo (2), Bruce D. Malamud (1), Ivan Marchesini (2), and Fausto Guzzetti (2), 2014, A Stochastic Monte-Carlo Model to Study the Impact of Large Triggered Landslide Events on Road Networks,
9th Alexander von Humboldt International Conference, Istanbul, 24 - 28/3/2014,
Abstract
Triggers such as earthquakes or heavy rainfall can result in hundreds to thousands of landslides ...
Triggers such as earthquakes or heavy rainfall can result in hundreds to thousands of landslides occurring across
a region within a short space of time. These landslides can in turn result in blockages across the road network,
impacting how people move about a region. Here, we show the development and application of a semi-stochastic
model to simulate how landslides intersect with road networks during a triggered landslide event. This was per-
formed by creating "synthetic" triggered landslide inventory maps and overlaying these with a road network map to
identify where road blockages occur. Our landslide-road model has been applied to two regions_ (i) the Collazzone
basin (79 km 2 ) in Central Italy where 422 landslides were triggered by rapid snowmelt in January 1997, (ii) the
Oat Mountain quadrangle (155 km 2 ) in California, USA, where 1,350 landslides were triggered by the Northridge
Earthquake (M = 6.7) in January 1994. Initial results show reasonable agreement between model output and the
observed landslide inventories in terms of the number of road blockages. In Collazzone (length of road network =
153 km, landslide density = 5.2 landslides km -2 ), the median number of modelled road blockages over 100 model
runs was 5 (±2.5 standard deviation) compared to the mapped inventory observed number of 5 road blockages.
In Northridge (length of road network = 780 km, landslide density = 8.7 landslides km -2 ), the median number
of modelled road blockages over 100 model runs was 108 (±17.2 standard deviation) compared to the mapped
inventory observed number of 48 road blockages. As we progress with model development, we believe this semi-
stochastic modelling approach will potentially aid civil protection agencies to explore different scenarios of road
network potential damage as the result of different magnitude landslide triggering event scenarios.
Capecchi, Valerio; Brocca, Luca, 2014, A simple assimilation method to ingest satellite soil moisture into a limited-area NWP model,
Meteorologische Zeitschrift (Berl.) 23 (2014): 105–121. doi_10.1127/0941-2948/2014/0585,
DOI: 10.1127%2F0941-2948%2F2014%2F0585
Abstract
Recently several studies discussed the potential and operational use of satellite soil moisture measurements in ...
Recently several studies discussed the potential and operational use of satellite soil moisture measurements in new land surface analysis feeding global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. This work seeks to establish whether a limited-area NWP model might benefit from the assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture data. The question is important because it is well known that even small errors in the initial conditions could amplify in the future states and lead to erroneous predictions. On the other hand, remotely sensed soil moisture observations are attractive because they offer a synoptic point of view and their reliability with respect to in-situ measurements is demonstrated.The authors used a simple nudging scheme in order to assimilate remotely sensed soil moisture data into a limited-area NWP model. This assimilation method is computationally cheap and simple to implement. Its impact on numerical outputs is evaluated with respect to a control simulation performed without assimilation. Results obtained in both simulations are validated with in-situ soil moisture measurements and with 2-meter temperature observations. Results demonstrate the benefits of the assimilation especially in those remote areas where the coverage of observational instruments is poor and where the irregularity of observations implies interpolation errors when reporting data on a regular grid. As found in bibliography, in well monitored areas the impact of the assimilation is almost neutral.
Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos, Marco Borga, Stefano Crema , Lorenzo Marchi, Francesco Marra, and Fausto Guzzetti, 2014, Impact of uncertainty in rainfall estimation on the identification of rainfall thresholds for debris flow occurrence,
EGU General Assembly 2014, Vienna (Austria), 27 April - 2 May 2014,
Abstract
Estimation of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds, used for the identification of debris flows/landslides triggering
rainfall events, has ...
Estimation of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds, used for the identification of debris flows/landslides triggering
rainfall events, has been traditionally based on raingauge observations. The main drawback of using information
from gauges is that rainfall estimates are available only over gauge locations, which are usually located far away
from the debris flow/landslide initiation areas. Thus, successful implementation of gauge-based rainfall thresholds
involves the intrinsic assumption that rainfall over gauge and actual initiation point is highly correlated. However,
in complex terrain where this natural hazard takes place, spatial variability of rainfall can be very high even at very
small scales due to orographic enhancement of precipitation and the development of highly localized convective
systems.
This work is focused on the assessment of the impact of rainfall estimation uncertainty on identification and
use of rainfall thresholds for debris flow occurrence. The Upper Adige river basin, northern Italy, is the area of
study. A detailed database of more than 400 identified debris flows during period 2000-2010 and a raingauge
network of 95 stations, is used for this work. The methodology examines the intensity-duration thresholds derived
from a set of raingauge locations that is assumed to be collocated with debris flow/landslide points (DFR) and
an equivalent set of raingauges assumed to have the role of closest available measurement (MR). Comparison
between the rainfall thresholds derived from DFR and MR, revealed that uncertainty in rainfall estimation has
a major impact on estimated intensity-duration thresholds. Specifically, results showed that thresholds estimated
from MR observations are consistently underestimated. Evaluation of the estimated thresholds for warning
procedures showed that while detection is high, the main issue is the high false alarm ratio, which limits the overall
accuracy of the procedure. Overall performance on debris flow prediction was shown to be good for low rainfall
thresholds and poor for high rainfall thresholds examined. These findings have consequences in the operational
use of the thresholds and provide evidence of the regional dependence of uncertainty in estimation of ID thresholds.
Massimiliano Alvioli (1), Francesca Ardizzone (1), Fausto Guzzetti (1), Ivan Marchesini (1), Mauro Rossi (1,2), 2014, Non-Susceptible Landslide Areas in Italy and in the Mediterranean Region,
Geophysical Research Abstracts (2014).,
Marchesini, Ivan; Mergili, Martin; Rossi, Mauro; Michele, Michele Santangelo; Cardinali, Mauro; Ardizzone, Francesca; Fiorucci, Federica; Schneider-Muntau, Barbara; Fellin, Wolfgang; Guzzetti, Fausto, 2014, A GIS Approach to Analysis of Deep-Seated Slope Stability in Complex Geology.,
WLF 3, World Landslide Forum, pp. 483–489, Pechino, 2-6 Giugno 2014,
Abstract
We demonstrate the computer model r.rotstab.layers to explore the possibilities of GIS for catchment-scale deep-seated ...
We demonstrate the computer model r.rotstab.layers to explore the possibilities of GIS for catchment-scale deep-seated slope stability modelling in complex geology. This model makes use of a modification of the three-dimensional sliding surface model proposed by Hovland and revised and extended by Xie and co-workers. It evaluates the slope stability for a large number of ellipsoidal random slip surfaces which may be truncated at the interfaces between geological layers. This results in a spatial overview of potentially unstable regions. After demonstrating the functionality of the model with an artificial cone-shaped terrain, we test r.rotstab.layers for the 10 kmRipoli area in Umbria, central Italy. According to field observations in the Ripoli area, morpho-structural settings play a crucial role for deep-seated landslide distribution. We have prepared a model of the geological layers based on surface information on the strike and dip of each layer, and we use this model as input for r.rotstab.layers. We show that (1) considering the geological layers is essential for the outcome of deep-seated slope stability modelling, and (2) the seepage direction of the groundwater is a major source of uncertainty.
Tarpanelli Angelica, Brocca Luca, Barbetta Silvia, Lacava Teodosio, Faruolo Mariapia, Moramarco Tommaso, 2014, Integration of MODIS and radar altimetry data for river discharge estimation from space,
Engineering Geology for Society and Territory - Volume 3, pp. 607–610, 2014,
PIERLUIGI CARA, FEDERICA FIORUCCI, ROBERTA ONORI, FRANCESCA ARDIZZONE, CHIARA PROIETTI, PAOLA REICHENBACH, 2014, BANCA DATI PER L’ARCHIVIAZIONE DI FRANE D’EVENTO SECONDO LA DIRETTIVA INSPIRE,
2014,
Paola Reichenbach, Federica Fiorucci, Francesca Ardizzone, Mauro Cardinali, Ivan Marchesini, Massimiliano Alvioli, 2014, CARTA DI SUSCETTIBILITA’ DELLA REGIONE UMBRIA,
2014,
Federica Fiorucci, Ardizzone Francesca, 2014, Carta inventario delle fane dell’anno 2014 – anno 2014,
2014,
Federica Fiorucci, Francesca Ardizzone, Alessandro Mondini, 2014, CARTA D’EVENTO DEL BACINO DI POGLIASCHINA,
2014,
A. Mertzanis, F. Marabini, M.G. Angeli, G. Efthimiou, K. Mertzanis, K. Papadopoulou Vrynioti & F. Pontoni, 2014, Lagoons and lakes in Western Greece_ Human-made impact on the natural ecosystems and geomomorphological changes,
WLC15 Perugia 2014, Perugia - Italy, 1-5 Sett. 2014,
P. Marsan, F. Bramerini, C. Conte, Iannarelli E., Naso G., Boscherini A., Crippa A., Motti A., Cardinali M., Moscatelli M., Pagliaroli A., Bozzoni F., Casarotti C., Lai C., Blumetti A., Chiessi V., Comerci V., Aversa S., Simonelli A.L., 2014, LE SCHEDE GEO_ UNO STRUMENTO OPERATIVO PER LA VERIFICA DEI FENOMENI COSISMICI NELLA PRIMA EMERGENZA SISMICA,
33° Convegno Nazionale GNGTS, pp. 217–223, Bologna, 25-27 novembre 2014,
Rossi M., Mondini A.C., Luciani S., Kirschbaum D., Valigi D., Guzzetti F., 2014, Probabilistic prediction of landslides induced by rainfall,
IWWCAS 2013, Courmayeur, Italia, 10/12 June 2013,
