Background

SANF-RFI is a landslide early warning system along the RFI national railway Infrastructure. The system forecasts the possible occurrence of landslides by comparing rainfall measurements and forecasts with empirical rainfall thresholds for the possible occurrence of landslides. Specifically, the system consists of three components: (i) for rainfall and other data input and storage, (ii) for data processing and analysis, and (iii) for the production and delivery of the forecasts.

Purpose

In Italy, intense or prolonged rainfall is the primary trigger of slope failures. Rainfall-induced landslides are widespread phenomena that cause casualties and extensive economic damage. Determining the amount of rainfall necessary to trigger landslides is of scientific and social interest. In this context, Rete Ferroviaria Italiana S.p.A. (RFI) asked the CNR IRPI to implement an early-warning system for the quasi-real-time forecasting of rainfall induced landslides along the railway lines of RFI in Italy. Following this request, CNR IRPI developed SANF-RFI.

Methods

SANF-RFI consists of three main components. The first component (i) consists of a set of procedures to import rainfall measurements and quantitative rainfall forecasts. Every hour, rainfall measurements from a network of the Italian National Department for Civil Protection are imported, validated, and stored in the system. Three-day quantitative rainfall forecasts are generated twice a day using a small-scale numerical model (COSMO-I5), and stored in the system. The second component (ii) consists of procedures to compare the measured and/or forecasted rainfall amount with cumulated event rainfall-rainfall duration thresholds for the possible initiation of landslides. Rainfall thresholds are used to define non-exceedance probabilities for the landslide occurrence. The third component (iii) consists of procedures to generate and deliver synoptic-scale forecast maps showing critical levels for the possible occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides along the Italian rail network lines. The forecast maps are delivered as digital web maps through OGC (Open Geospatial Consortium) Web services. SANF-RFI components exploit Open Source software.

Products

•  Synoptic-scale maps of exceedance probability levels for the possible occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides along the Italian rail network lines. Maps use (i) the measured rainfall in the past 96 hours, (ii) the rainfall forecasted for the next 24 hours, and (iii) the rainfall measurements and forecasts, modulated by a synoptic susceptibility zonation of Italy.
• Forecast monitoring and reporting from Monday to Friday, from 9.00 am to 5.00 pm, excluding holidays, by qualified staff of the CNR-IRPI CC

Conclusions

We expect that the results of the SANF-RFI project may contribute to mitigate – through prevention – landslide risk reducing the number of casualties caused by rainfall-induced landslides in Italy along the RFI national railway Infrastructure.