Pubblicazioni

Publications found: 1347

An Analysis of the Occurrence Probabilities ofWet and Dry Periods through a Stochastic Monthly Rainfall Model

T. Caloiero, B. Sirangelo, R. Coscarelli, E. Ferrari, 2016, An Analysis of the Occurrence Probabilities ofWet and Dry Periods through a Stochastic Monthly Rainfall Model, Water (Basel) 8 (2016): 39/1–39/21. doi_10.3390/w8020039,

DOI: 10.3390%2Fw8020039

Abstract
Stochastic simulators can effectively generate the intrinsic variability of the rainfall process, which is an ...
Stochastic simulators can effectively generate the intrinsic variability of the rainfall process, which is an important issue in the analysis of the projections uncertainties. In this paper, a procedure for stochastic modeling of precipitation at monthly scale is proposed. The model adopts variable transformations, which are finalized to the deseasonalization and the Gaussianization of the monthly rainfall process, and includes a procedure for testing the autocorrelation. The model was applied to a homogeneous database of monthly rainfall values registered in 12 rain gauges in the region of Calabria (Southern Italy). After the estimation of the model parameters, a set of 10^4 years of monthly rainfall for each rain gauge was generated by means of a Monte Carlo technique. Then, dry and wet periods were analyzed through the application of the standardized precipitation index (SPI). Some results, confirmed through the application of the drought severity index (DSI), showed that the proposed model provided a good representation of the monthly rainfall for the considered rain gauges. Moreover, the results of the SPI application indicate a greater probability of dry conditions than wet conditions, especially when long-term precipitation patterns are considered.
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Spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation in a Mediterranean area (southern Italy)

A. Longobardi, G. Buttafuoco, T. Caloiero, R. Coscarelli, 2016, Spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation in a Mediterranean area (southern Italy), Environmental earth sciences (Print) 75 (2016): 189/1–189/20. doi_10.1007/s12665-015-5045-8,

DOI: 10.1007%2Fs12665-015-5045-8

Abstract
The precipitation climate regime of a region is characterized by the distribution of the monthly ...
The precipitation climate regime of a region is characterized by the distribution of the monthly precipitation contribution. Its temporal and spatial analysis is particularly interesting for many fields of applied sciences, such as climatology, hydrology and water resources management. With the aim to describe the climate regime, its spatial feature and relevant potential temporal shift, for a large area of southern Italy (Mediterranean basin), a database of about 559 stations has been explored through the statistical analysis of rainfall time series spanning between 1917-2006. After a change point analysis, aimed at the assessment of data quality, a trend analysis has been performed on both monthly precipitation, monthly percentage of annual rainfall amount and PCI-computed series. The broad extension of the area under investigation highlights a better understanding of precipitation distribution patterns over space. Results of PCI trend analysis show a significant shift, for about 40%-50% of total gauging station, over the time toward a more uniform climate regime, especially for the hilly areas. Moreover, the trend analysis on the monthly rainfall series indicate that the shift is produced by a reduction of rainfall amount during the winter season, particular consistent over the Tyrrhenian side of the peninsula, and an increase during the summer season quite widespread over the whole investigated territory.
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Testing a geographical information system for damage and evacuation assessment during an effusive volcanic crisis

Latutrie, B.a, Andredakis, I.b, De Groeve, T.b, Harris, A.J.L.a , Langlois, E.c, Van Wyk de Vries, B.a, Saubin, E.a, Bilotta, G.d, Cappello, A.d, Crisci, G.M.e, D'ambrosiofg, Del Negro, C.d, Favalli, M.h, Fujita, .i, Iovine, G.g, Kelfoun, K.a, Rongo, R.fg, Spataro, W.fg, Tarquini, S.h, Coppola, D.j, Ganci, G.d, Marchese, F.k, Pergola, N.k, Tramutoli, V.l, 2016, Testing a geographical information system for damage and evacuation assessment during an effusive volcanic crisis, Detecting, Modelling and Responding to Effusive Eruptions, edited by Harris, A., De Groeve, T., Garel, F., & Carn, S.A., pp. 649–672. Bath_ Geological Society Publishing House, 2016,

Abstract
Using two hypothetical effusive events in the Chaine des Puys (Auvergne, France), we tested two geographical ...
Using two hypothetical effusive events in the Chaine des Puys (Auvergne, France), we tested two geographical information systems (GISs) set up to allow loss assessment during an effusive crisis. The first was a local system that drew on all immediately available data for population, land use, communications, utility and building type. The second was an experimental add-on to the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) global warning system maintained by the Joint Research Centre (JRC) that draws information from open-access global data. After defin- ing lava-flow model source terms (vent location, effusion rate, lava chemistry, temperature, crystallinity and vesicularity), we ran all available lava-flow emplacement models to produce a projection for the likelihood of impact for all pixels within the GIS. Next, inundation maps and damage reports for impacted zones were produced, with those produced by both the local system and by GDACS being in good agreement. The exercise identified several shortcomings of the systems, but also indicated that the generation of a GDACS-type global response system for effusive crises that uses rapid-response model projections for lava inundation driven by real-time satellite hotspot detection - and open-access datasets - is within the current capabilities of the community.
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SCIARA: Cellular Automata Lava flow modelling and applications in hazard prediction and mitigation

ROCCO RONGO (1), VALERIA LUPIANO (2), WILLIAM SPATARO (1), DONATO D'AMBROSIO (1), GIULIO IOVINE (3), AND GINO CRISCI (2), 2016, SCIARA: Cellular Automata Lava flow modelling and applications in hazard prediction and mitigation, Detecting, Modelling and Responding to Effusive Eruptions, edited by Harris, A., De Groeve, T., Garel, F., & Carn, S.A., pp. 345–356. Bath_ Geological Society Publishing House, 2016,

Abstract
The use of thematic volcanic hazard maps is essential for policy managers and administrators in land ...
The use of thematic volcanic hazard maps is essential for policy managers and administrators in land use planning and to determine the best form of action during emergencies. In particular, hazard maps are a key tool in emergency management and are used to describe the threat expected at a certain location in the event of future eruptions. We applied the latest version of the SCIARA lava flow cellular automata model using parallel computing through general purpose graphics processing units technology to derive lava flow hazard maps for Mt Etna, Sicily. The methodology relies on an accurate analysis of the past behaviour of the volcano and is appropriate for land use planning and civil defence applications.
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Recent alluvial fans in Calabria (southern Italy)

Antronico L., Greco R., Sorriso-Valvo M., 2016, Recent alluvial fans in Calabria (southern Italy), Journal of maps 12 (2016): 503–514. doi_10.1080/17445647.2015.1047905,

DOI: 10.1080%2F17445647.2015.1047905

Abstract
The present work aims at identifying the location of recent debris-flow dominated alluvial fans at ...
The present work aims at identifying the location of recent debris-flow dominated alluvial fans at a regional scale in Calabria (southern Italy). Here, alluvial fans widely occur as both tributary junction and mountain front types and represent a potential hazard to human settlements and lifelines near or on them. The alluvial fans inventory map on a 1_250 000 scale was obtained by means of a stereoscopic interpretation of aerial photos shot in 1954-1955. To establish the activity of the detected alluvial fans recent documents (scientific reports, local newspapers and journals, internet blogs) on debris flow events and the historical satellite imagery available on Google Earth, covering the period 2001-2014 were analysed. Subsequently, the activity of the alluvial fans over the last 60 years has been divided into four classes. A total of 1170 alluvial fans have been mapped, 545 (46.58 %) of which have been active over the last 60 years. The alluvial fans with a length from apex to toe < 200 m predominate, constituting 70% of the total. In the feeder basins, the dominant lithologies are represented by medium to high-grade metamorphic rocks and igneous rocks, gravel and debris and, shales and low-grade metamorphic rocks. Finally, the inventory map shows that 103 settlements are located on alluvial fans, 18 of which are active or have been active during the last 60 years. This map is a useful tool for land planning policy and for the assessment of risk deriving from debris flows on the alluvial fans of the Calabria region.
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Sensitivity to desertification of a high productivity area in Southern Italy

Roberto Coscarelli, Tommaso Caloiero, Ivana Minervino, Marino Sorriso-Valvo, 2016, Sensitivity to desertification of a high productivity area in Southern Italy, Journal of maps 12 (2016): 573–581. doi_10.1080/17445647.2015.1054904,

DOI: 10.1080%2F17445647.2015.1054904

Abstract
Calabria (Southern Italy) is one of the Italian regions most affected by desertification phenomena. This ...
Calabria (Southern Italy) is one of the Italian regions most affected by desertification phenomena. This study presents a detailed analysis of the sensitivity to desertification of an economically important agricultural area in the province of Crotone. The Environmentally Sensitive Areas methodology, developed during the European Union MEDALUS project, has been applied by means of a consistent set of pedological, vegetation, climatic and management data of the study area. Analysis of 15 biophysical and social-economic indicators and an evaluation of 4 Quality Indices allowed the classification of the study area into potential, fragile and critical areas in relation to desertification. The main result is a pronounced sensitivity to desertification of the area_ about 46% of the land emerges as being already affected by degradation phenomena, falling within the worst class ('critical'), while about 39% of the area belongs to the 'fragile' class.
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Time evolution of landslide damages to buildings_ the case study of Lungro (Calabria, southern Italy)

Antronico, Loredana; Borrelli, Luigi; Coscarelli, Roberto; Gullà, Giovanni, 2015, Time evolution of landslide damages to buildings_ the case study of Lungro (Calabria, southern Italy), Bulletin of engineering geology and the environment (Print) 74 (2015): 47–59. doi_10.1007/s10064-014-0591-y,

DOI: 10.1007%2Fs10064-014-0591-y

Abstract
In the last decades, building damage caused by landslides in urban areas has increased due ...
In the last decades, building damage caused by landslides in urban areas has increased due to the rapid growth of urbanization even on landslide-prone slopes. This work presents the analysis results of landslide damage evolution by means of a macrodamage index in relation to the characteristics of landslides. The study area is located in southern Italy, and is affected by slow-moving landslides, which, over time, have caused relevant effects on the buildings. A series of geological and geomorphological studies and field surveys, supported by monitoring via conventional geotechnical techniques, allowed us to classify four categories of landslides based on the following criteria_ landslide movement, type of material and estimated depth. Detailed field surveys aimed at evaluating distribution and evolution of the damage to buildings located within and near the unstable area were carried out in 2005 and 2011. The evaluation of the macrodamage index in two different years enabled us to directly correlate the features of the landslide categories and their effects on the urban fabric.
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HyMeX: mid-term program review and perspectives Report of the 9th HyMeX workshop in Mykonos, Greece

Drobinski P., Ducrocq V., Kotroni V., Lagouvardos K., Ahrens B., Anquetin S., Bouin M.N., Braud I., Coppola E., Coquillat S., Davolio S., Delanoé J., Di Girolamo P., Flamant C., Flaounas E., Fourrié N., Garcia-Moya J., Giordani H., Homar V., Jorda G., Kalthoff N., Khodayar S., Llasat C., Lebeaupin-Brossier C., Michel Y., Morin E., Nuissier O., Petrucci O., Polcher J., Quintana-Segui P., Richard E., Sannino G., Somot S., Testor P., Tramblay Y., Ruin I., Von Schuckmann K., 2015, HyMeX: mid-term program review and perspectives Report of the 9th HyMeX workshop in Mykonos, Greece, GEWEX news (Online) 27 (2015): 20–22.,

Abstract
The Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX; Drobinski et al., 2014) is a 10-year ...
The Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX; Drobinski et al., 2014) is a 10-year (2010-2020) GEWEX Hydroclimatology Panel (GHP) Regional Hydroclimate Project (RHP). Its objectives are to_ (i) improve the understanding of the water cycle, with emphasis on extreme events, by monitoring and modeling the Mediterranean coupled system (atmosphere-land-ocean), its variability (from the event scale to the seasonal and interannual scales) and characteristics over one decade in the context of global change; and (ii) evaluate societal and economical vulnerability, and adaptation capacity to extreme meteorological and climate events.
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Effects of floods and landslides on people in a Mediterranean region (Calabria, Italy): victims, injured and involved people

olga petrucci, 2015, Effects of floods and landslides on people in a Mediterranean region (Calabria, Italy): victims, injured and involved people, 9th HYMEX Int. Workshop, Mykonos, 25/09/2015,

Abstract
Effects of floods and landslides on people in a Mediterranean region (Calabria, Italy): victims, injured ...
Effects of floods and landslides on people in a Mediterranean region (Calabria, Italy): victims, injured and involved people
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5-year science review_ society vulnerabilities facing high-impact weather

olga petrucci, 2015, 5-year science review_ society vulnerabilities facing high-impact weather, 9th HyMeX Workshop, Mykonos, 22/09/2015,

Abstract
The presentation deals with_ FLOODHYMEX DATABASE Structure and implementation Limitations and usefulness THE USES OF FLOODHYMEX DATA Analysis of ...
The presentation deals with_ FLOODHYMEX DATABASE Structure and implementation Limitations and usefulness THE USES OF FLOODHYMEX DATA Analysis of Catastrophic Events Analysis of Transnational Events THE IMPACT OF EVENTS ON PEOPLE WORK IN PROGRESS AND FUTURE STEPS
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Syntesis of the 5-years research activities and results of Hymex science team

olga petrucci, 2015, Syntesis of the 5-years research activities and results of Hymex science team, MISTRAL workshop, Marsiglia, 20/10/2015,

Abstract
The presentation try to answer the following question_ ?1 How can we monitor adaptation strategies ...
The presentation try to answer the following question_ ?1 How can we monitor adaptation strategies to climate change and extreme events in Mediterranean basin? ?2 Which lessons can be learnt from the experience of Mediterranean societies and individuals? ?3 How the other communities can use these lessons? ?4 How to define future scenarios to quantify the impact of global change on extreme events? ?5 How human vulnerability could change due to global change?
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Databases on damaging geo-hydrological events_ experiences in Mediterranean regions

olga petrucci, 2015, Databases on damaging geo-hydrological events_ experiences in Mediterranean regions, JPI-Water Workshop_ Climate impact and loss data for Europe, Berlino, 16/07/2015,

Abstract
Damaging Hydrogeological Events (DHEs or "events"). Damaging Hydrogeological Events in Calabria. Early and current historical research . NewASICAL ...
Damaging Hydrogeological Events (DHEs or "events"). Damaging Hydrogeological Events in Calabria. Early and current historical research . NewASICAL database. The FLOODHYMEX database. PEOPLE_ the database of impact on individuals.
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A cellular model for secondary lahars and simulation of cases in the Vascun Valley, Ecuador

Machado, G.; Lupiano, V.; Avolio, M. V.; Gullace, F.; Di Gregorio, S., 2015, A cellular model for secondary lahars and simulation of cases in the Vascun Valley, Ecuador, Journal of computational science (Print) 11 (2015): 289–299. doi_10.1016/j.jocs.2015.08.001,

DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.jocs.2015.08.001

Abstract
Cellular Automata (CA) represent a computational paradigm for simulating complex fluid-dynamical phenomena, that evolve on ...
Cellular Automata (CA) represent a computational paradigm for simulating complex fluid-dynamical phenomena, that evolve on the basis of local interactions. Secondary lahars are highly destructive surface flows that originate from the mobilization of pyroclastic deposits by exceptionally heavy rainfalls. CA modelling of rain-induced lahars could be an important tool for risk management in threatened regions. LLUNPIY is a CA model, developed and partially applied on two real events_ the 2005 and 2008 secondary lahars of Vascun Valley, Ecuador. Simulations are satisfying_ a comparison of 2005 event was performed with the two-dimensional model Titan2D and field data, while results of 2008 event were confronted only with field data. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Trend analysis of mean and extreme rainfall in Calabria (southern Italy)

Caloiero T, Coscarelli R, Ferrari E,, 2015, Trend analysis of mean and extreme rainfall in Calabria (southern Italy), European Water 52 (2015): 3–12.,

Abstract
A modification in water cycle is one of the most noticeable consequences of global atmospheric ...
A modification in water cycle is one of the most noticeable consequences of global atmospheric warming. Precipitation is a key point in the hydrological process and the distribution of extreme rainfall is particularly important because it may impact on water management, soil erosion and flash floods. In this paper, an analysis of mean and extreme rainfall over a region of southern Italy (Calabria) has been carried using a daily homogeneous rainfall dataset of 129 rain gauges with more than 50 years of observation for the period 1916-2006. First, a statistical analysis was performed through the Mann-Kendall test in order to detect possible trends at annual, seasonal and monthly scale. Then, a set of indices derived from the daily homogeneous rainfall time series was defined and used to examine changes in extreme rainfall through non-parametric techniques. Results show a decreasing trend for annual and winter-autumn rainfall and an increasing trend for summer rainfall. Moreover, a prevailing decreasing trend of the various indices has been detected. These results appear to be in contrast with previous large scale studies which evidenced an increase in extreme rainfall and a decrease in the yearly totals, in other areas of Southern Europe. These differences in the behaviour of extreme rainfall suggest that a detailed regional analysis is always necessary because the distribution of extreme rainfall is often linked to the morphological settings of a territory (proximity to the sea, presence of reliefs, etc.).
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An integrative perspective on modeling of dangerous phenomena for risk mitigation

IOVINE G., AUBRECHT C., PASTOR M., 2015, An integrative perspective on modeling of dangerous phenomena for risk mitigation, Norcross: Tech Science Press, 2015,

Abstract
Volume Speciale edito per la rivista CMES su "An integrative perspective on modeling of dangerous ...
Volume Speciale edito per la rivista CMES su "An integrative perspective on modeling of dangerous phenomena for risk mitigation"
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Valutazione del Potenziale Geotermico delle Regioni della Convergenza

ABATE S., ACETO L., ALDIGHIERI B., ANTRONICO L., ARDIZZONE F., BALASCO M., BONIOLO G., BOTTEGHI S., BRUNO C., CAIELLI G., CALOIERO D., CAPUTI A., CINTI D., CORSI A., CHIESA S., CRISPO A., DE FRANCO R., DESIDERIO G., D'ONOFRIO D., DONATO A., FRUSTACI F., GABRIELE S., GALGARO A., GALLER V., GALLI G., GIAMPAOLO V., GIOCOLI A., GIORDANO S., GOLA G., GRECO R., GUEGUEN E., GULLÀ G., IAQUINTA P., IOVINE G., LOMBARDO G., MANZELLA A., MORRONE A., MUTO F., NORINI G., PERRONE A., PETRUCCI O., PISCITELLI S., PIEMONTE C., PIZZINO L., QUATTROCCHI F., REALI C., RIZZO E., ROMANO G., SANTILANO A., SCIARRA A., SEGRETO F., SOLERI S., TERRANOVA O., TESTA B., TRUMPY E., VAIRO E., VALENTE E., VOTTA M., 2015, Valutazione del Potenziale Geotermico delle Regioni della Convergenza, Pisa: CNR-IGG Area della Ricerca di Pisa, 2015,

Abstract
Valutazione del Potenziale Geotermico delle Regioni della Convergenza La geotermia è scienza, tecnologia ed energia. È la ...
Valutazione del Potenziale Geotermico delle Regioni della Convergenza La geotermia è scienza, tecnologia ed energia. È la scienza che indaga le fonti di calore endogeno della Terra; è la tecnologia (impiantistica e disciplinare) che permette di accedere a tali risorse e coltivarle; è l'energia che ne scaturisce, utilizzabile sia come calore - direttamente - sia per la produzione di energia elettrica. La geotermia è utile, difficile e... bella. È una disciplina utile, perché dall'indagine geotermica e dagli impianti deriva un approvvigionamento energetico efficiente e indipendente sia dalle forniture estere sia dalle fluttuazioni del prezzo del petrolio. È una sfida difficile_ si esige competenza e perizia per attingere a una fonte di energia praticamente ubiqua, ma custodita; locale e disponibile sempre, rinnovabile e, dunque, sostenibile_ un'energia bella! La geotermia è una branca del sapere e una pratica tecnologica poco compresa, perché poco nota, ancora scarsamente organizzata e, spesso, poco incentivata. Serve dunque informazione, che è raccolta di dati, divulgazione, formazione. Grazie a una sapienza (oggi lo chiamano know-how) e a un'esperienza uniche nel settore, messe in campo dal Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, in accordo con il Ministero dello Sviluppo Economico, la geotermia oggi è anche VIGOR. Un progetto quadriennale che ha permesso di calcolare il potenziale geotermico di alcune Regioni del sud Italia e integrarlo in mappe significative del territorio, di progettarne il possibile utilizzo tramite impianti tecnologicamente ed economicamente realizzabili, dipanandone l'iter autorizzativo e indagandone il grado di accettabilità sociale per, infine, condividere tutto ciò (tramite opere e carte stampate e via web), affinché un'esperienza (inter)regionale diventi patrimonio condiviso. Da qui in poi, la geotermia è progetto e investimento. Ed è futuro_ il nostro. Adele Manzella Coordinatrice scientifica del progetto
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Cunicoli drenanti lungo la linea ferroviaria Battipaglia-Reggio Calabria presso la stazione di Pisciotta (SA, Campania)

DEL VECCHIO U.(1), GABRIELE S. (2), SIRICA G. (3), VALENTINO F. (1), VIGILE G. (3), IOVINE G. (2), 2015, Cunicoli drenanti lungo la linea ferroviaria Battipaglia-Reggio Calabria presso la stazione di Pisciotta (SA, Campania), XXII Congresso Nazionale di Speleologia - Euro Speleo Forum 2015 "Condividere i dati", pp. 701–708, Pertosa-Auletta, 30/05-02/06/2015,

Abstract
Durante una campagna di indagini geognostiche sulla tratta della linea ferroviaria Battipaglia-Reggio Calabria, recentemente interessata da ...
Durante una campagna di indagini geognostiche sulla tratta della linea ferroviaria Battipaglia-Reggio Calabria, recentemente interessata da spostamenti del rilevato ferroviario a causa di un fenomeno gravitativo di vaste dimensioni tra le stazioni di Pisciotta e San Mauro la Bruca, sono stati rinvenuti alcuni pozzi di grande diametro in calcestruzzo. Un'ispezione preliminare con videocamera consentiva di riscontrare la presenza di cunicoli che si dipartivano dal fondo dei pozzi, con funzione drenante. Si decideva, pertanto, di ispezionare il sistema di drenaggio profondo coinvolgendo personale specializzato, in modo da comprenderne caratteristiche e sviluppo. Sulla base di ricerche d'archivio, si è potuto appurare che tra la fine dell'800 e l'inizio del secolo scorso era stata realizzata una rete di cunicoli drenanti, accessibili per mezzo di pozzi, per la sistemazione dell'area. L'articolazione complessiva dell'opera di drenaggio, estesa in sotterraneo per circa 630 m, è al momento ancora oggetto di indagini. Al fine di avere piena conoscenza delle caratteristiche e dello sviluppo di pozzi e cunicoli, e per poter pianificare le azioni di ripristino per garantire la funzionalità della rete drenante e favorire la riduzione del rischio geo-idrologico, a partire da maggio 2014 sono state realizzate diverse ispezioni speleologiche. Queste, unitamente a indagini dirette e indirette di superficie in corso di completamento, consentiranno di ottimizzare gli interventi necessari a garantire livelli accettabili di rischio lungo il tratto di infrastruttura considerato.
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An integrative perspective on modeling of dangerous phenomena for risk mitigation

IOVINE G. (1), AUBRECHT C. (2), PASTOR M. (3), 2015, An integrative perspective on modeling of dangerous phenomena for risk mitigation, Computer modeling in engineering & sciences (Online) (2015).,

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A probabilistic approach to hazard mapping based on computer simulations. An example for lava flows at Mount Etna

RONGO R. (1), D'AMBROSIO D. (1), IOVINE G. (2), LUCÀ F. (3), LUPIANO V. (4), BONGOLAN V.P. (5), SPATARO W. (1), 2015, A probabilistic approach to hazard mapping based on computer simulations. An example for lava flows at Mount Etna, Computer modeling in engineering & sciences (Online) 109 (2015): 105–130. doi_10.3970/cmes.2015.109.105,

DOI: 10.3970%2Fcmes.2015.109.105

Abstract
Determining sectors that could be affected by lava flows in volcanic areas is essential for ...
Determining sectors that could be affected by lava flows in volcanic areas is essential for risk mitigation purposes. Traditionally, when adopting methods based on probabilistic numerical simulations, the hazard is assessed by analysing a huge set of simulations of hypothetical events, each characterized by a distinct probability of occurrence based on statistics of historical events. If lateral or eccentric eruptions are also taken into account, simulated lava flows usually start from the nodes of regular grids of potential vents, uniformly covering the study area. In this study, an alternative approach to evaluate flow-type hazard, based on a non-uniform grid of potential vents, is proposed. The method takes into account expected changes in the topographic context due to successive lava-flow bodies, and allows to obtain more detailed maps for the most exposed areas, besides significantly reducing the computational efforts. The approach has been tested to evaluate lava-flow hazard at Mt Etna (Eastern Sicily, Southern Italy), and a preliminary analysis has been performed to investigate the behaviour of the adopted technique with respect to the number of performed sets of simulations to better understanding its predictive capability.
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A prototype system for the analysis and investigation of extreme rainfall events

Laviola S., Gabriele S., Levizzani V., Miglietta M. M., Baldini L., Federico S., Marra G.P., Niccoli R., 2015, A prototype system for the analysis and investigation of extreme rainfall events, 2015 EUMETSAT meteorological satellite conference, Toulouse, France, 21-25 September 2015,

Abstract
A prototype system for the analysis and investigation of extreme rainfall events ...
A prototype system for the analysis and investigation of extreme rainfall events
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I processi di alterazione delle rocce e suscettibilità all’erosione e trasporto

S. Critelli, D. Biondino, L. Borrelli, G. Cofone, S. Coniglio, G. Gullà, F. Muto, F. Perri, F. Scarciglia, 2015, I processi di alterazione delle rocce e suscettibilità all’erosione e trasporto, Tecniche per la difesa dall'inquinamento, pp. 355–382, Guardia Piemontese, 17-20 giugno 2015,

Abstract
È da tempo nota l'incidenza che l'alterazione delle rocce ha sulla stabilità dei versanti, e ...
È da tempo nota l'incidenza che l'alterazione delle rocce ha sulla stabilità dei versanti, e quindi sulla franosità, che risulta essere il predominante meccanismo di evoluzione morfologica in aree caratterizzate da notevoli spessori di rocce cristalline alterate. I processi di weathering che si mettono in atto dipendono da numerosi fattori quali la chimica e mineralogia delle rocce, il rilievo, le caratteristiche chimiche delle acque interagenti, l'attività biologica e il clima. Il grado di sviluppo dei caratteri dell'alterazione è funzione del tempo e del clima, che controlla anche la tipologia dei processi dominanti. Tali processi inducono nelle rocce cristalline variazioni nelle caratteristiche chimicofisiche, con conseguente formazione di spessori di roccia alterata, più o meno consistenti. Le caratteristiche del materiale roccia e le condizioni di fratturazione dell'ammasso roccioso determinano, in termini generali, i profili di alterazione. La Calabria, in particolare, è una regione con una storia geologica complessa ed estremamente attiva, in cui gli ammassi rocciosi cristallino-metamorfici sono caratterizzati da una condizione di intensa e profonda alterazione, la quale rappresenta uno dei principali fattori di predisposizione agli eventi di dissesto idrogeologico. L'esempio di studio del Massiccio della Sila, i cui studi sul weathering sono stati particolarmente significativi, offre l'opportunità di stimare quantitativamente il grado di alterazione delle rocce cristalline e la loro suscettibilità a movimenti gravitativi, all'erosione e al rapido trasporto, nonché consente di stimare i tassi di erosione del suolo medi annui.
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Scenari di pericolo

G. Gullà, L. Borrelli, G. Cofone, 2015, Scenari di pericolo, XIX Conferenza Nazionale ASITA, pp. 437–444, Lecco, 29 settembre-1 ottobre 2015,

Abstract
Gli eventi di frane superficiali possono indurre condizioni di pericolo/rischio molto elevato. Tali condizioni, che ...
Gli eventi di frane superficiali possono indurre condizioni di pericolo/rischio molto elevato. Tali condizioni, che si possono verificare quando è diffusa la presenza di fattori predisponenti le frane superficiali, interessano generalmente aree molto estese e quindi possono interagire con numerosi tratti viari. La ricerca in itinere si propone di definire, con diversi metodi, possibili scenari di pericolo/rischio determinati da eventi di frane superficiali per le reti viarie, con riferimento ad un'area di studio della Stretta di Catanzaro (Calabria). Per le finalità delineate sono stati utilizzati i dati relativi a frane superficiali (SLs) verificatesi nel 2008-2010, nelle litologie prevalentemente sabbiose (LU-SC) ed argillose (LU-MC). Le informazioni relative alle SLs sono trasferite nelle celle 5x5 m del DTM prodotto dalla carta tecnica regionale. Considerando nella prima fase di lavoro solo i principali fattori predisponenti le SLs cartografate (litologie, inclinazioni e quote), sono individuate le celle potenzialmente instabili suscettibili alle SLs ed il conseguente possibile scenario di pericolo che consente, infine, di individuare i tratti potenzialmente a rischio delle reti viarie. I risultati conseguiti forniscono indicazioni per supportare la gestione di eventuali emergenze, in corso di evento e nella fase post-evento, nonché per la pianificazione di eventuali necessari potenziamenti delle reti viarie. Gli stessi forniscono, inoltre, spunti per le successive fasi della ricerca.
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Changes in the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides in Calabria, southern Italy, in the 20th century

Stefano Luigi Gariano (1,2), Olga Petrucci (3), Fausto Guzzetti (1), 2015, Changes in the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides in Calabria, southern Italy, in the 20th century, Natural hazards and earth system sciences (Online) 15 (2015): 2313–2330. doi_10.5194/nhess-15-2313-2015,

DOI: 10.5194%2Fnhess-15-2313-2015

Abstract
Only a few studies have investigated the geographical and temporal variations in the frequency and ...
Only a few studies have investigated the geographical and temporal variations in the frequency and distribution of rainfall-induced landslides, and the consequences of the variations on landslide risk. Lack of information limits the possibility to evaluate the impact of environmental and climate changes on landslide frequency and risk. Here, we exploit detailed historical information on landslides and rainfall in Calabria, Southern Italy, between 1921 and 2010 to study the temporal and the geographical variation in the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides and in their impact on the population. We exploit a catalogue with information on historical landslides from June 1920 to December 2010, and daily rainfall records obtained by a network of 318 rain gauges in the same period, to reconstruct 448,493 rainfall events (RE). Combining the rainfall and the landslide information, we obtain a catalogue of 1466 rainfall events with landslides (REL), where a REL is the occurrence of one or more landslide during or immediately after a rainfall event. We find that (i) the geographical and the temporal distributions of the rainfall-induced landslides have changed in the observation period, (ii) the monthly distribution of the REL has changed in the observation period, and (iii) the average and maximum cumulated event rainfall that have resulted in landslides in the recent 30-year period 1981 - 2010 are lower than the rainfall necessary to trigger landslides in previous periods, whereas the duration of the RE that triggered landslides has remained the same. We attribute the changes to variations in the rainfall conditions and to an increased vulnerability of the territory. To investigate the variations in the impact of REL on the population, we compared the number of REL in each of the 409 municipalities in Calabria, with the size of the population in the municipalities, measured by national Censuses conducted in 1951, 1981, and 2011. We adopted two strategies; the first strategy considered impact as IREL = #REL / P, and the second strategy measured impact as RREL = #REL × P, where #REL is the total number of REL in a period, and P is the size of the population in the same period and geographical area. The analysis has revealed a complex picture of changes in the impact of rainfall-induced landslides in Calabria in the recent past, with areas where IREL and RREL have increased, and other areas where they have decreased. Municipalities where IREL has increased are mainly in the mountains, and municipalities where RREL has increased are mainly along the coasts. The complexity of the changes in the frequency and impact of rainfall-induced landslides observed in Calabria suggests that it remains difficult and uncertain to predict the possible variations in the frequency and impact of landslide in response to future climatic and environmental changes.
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Assessment of severity levels of Damaging Hydrogeological Events in Calabria (Southern Italy)

Petrucci O., Caloiero T., Aceto L., Pasqua A.A., 2015, Assessment of severity levels of Damaging Hydrogeological Events in Calabria (Southern Italy), IUGG 2015 - Symposium HW06 Socio-Hydrology: The Dynamic Interplay between Water and Human Systems, Praga, 22/06-02/07/2015,

Abstract
A Rainfall Event and a subsequent Damage Event, resulting from floods and landslides triggered by ...
A Rainfall Event and a subsequent Damage Event, resulting from floods and landslides triggered by rainfall, are the two components which characterize a Damaging Hydrogeological Event (DHE). Since the same rainfall amount can cause different degrees of damage, depending on both rivers and slopes conditions, both Rainfall and Damage Event characteristics are related to climatic, geomorphological and anthropogenic factors. Moreover, as to what concerns the damage, and specifically the damage occurrence, this also depends on the geographical distribution of damageable elements such as population, lifelines and urbanized sectors. In this paper, a methodology for the classification of the severity of the DHEs, which have been recorded in a region of southern Italy (Calabria), is proposed. The applied methodology was based on a chart which considers some indicators of both the Damage (Dscore) and the daily Rainfall values (Rscore) recorded in the study area; the chart was applied to a series of 30 DHEs which occurred between 1981 and 2010. As a result, four types of events have been identified_ ordinary events, obtained by low Dscore and Rscore values; extraordinary events, with high Rscore values but low Dscore values; catastrophic events, characterized by non-exceptional rainfall (low Rscore) and severe damage (high Dscore); major catastrophic events, having high Dscore and Rscore values. Given that, media accounts and first or second-hand personal accounts fail to provide an objective classification, the aim of this study was to provide an objective classification of the severity of the DHEs through the production of a chart.
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Causes and effects of the 2010 March damaging hydrogeological event in Catalonia, Calabria and Balearic Islands

Olga Petrucci (1), Luigi Aceto (1); Montserrat Llasat-Botija (2), A. Aurora Pasqua (1), Joan Rosselló, (3), Maria Carmen Llasat (2), 2015, Causes and effects of the 2010 March damaging hydrogeological event in Catalonia, Calabria and Balearic Islands, 9th HyMeX Workshop, Mykonos Island, Greece, 21 - 25 September 2015,

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Building a platform to show the flood events recorded in the Mediterranean area

Maria Carmen Llasat (1), Vassiliki Kotroni (2), Kostas Lagouvardos (2), Olga Petrucci (3), Joan Rosselló (4), Freddy Vinet (5), Montserrat Llasat-Botija (1), Katerina Papagiannaki (2), A. Aurora Pasqua (3), 2015, Building a platform to show the flood events recorded in the Mediterranean area, 9th HyMeX Workshop, Mykonos Island, Greece, 21 - 25 September 2015,

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Analysis of the precipitation regime in a wide Mediterranean area

A. Longobardi, G. Buttafuoco, T. Caloiero, R. Coscarelli, 2015, Analysis of the precipitation regime in a wide Mediterranean area, Rome 2015 - Science Symposium on climate, pp. 80–81, Roma, November 19-20, 2015,

Abstract
The precipitation climate regime of a region is characterized by the distribution of the monthly ...
The precipitation climate regime of a region is characterized by the distribution of the monthly precipitation contribution. Its temporal and spatial analysis is of particularly interest for many fields of applied sciences, such as climatology, hydrology and water resources management especially in arid or semi-arid environment [1, 2]. With the aim to describe the climate regime, its spatial feature and relevant potential temporal shift, for a large area of southern Italy (Mediterranean basin), a database of about 559 stations, has been explored through the statistical analysis of rainfall time series spanning between 1917-2006. After a change point analysis, aimed at the assessment of data quality, a trend analysis has been performed on both monthly precipitation, monthly percentage of annual rainfall amount and Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) series [3]. The broad extension of the area under investigation highlights a better understanding of precipitation distribution patterns over space, illustrating how particular geographical location are characterized by climatic features apart from the average climate regime predicted for a particular period of the year [4,5]. Results of PCI trend analysis indicate a significant shift, for about 40%-50% of total gauging station, over the time toward a more uniform climate regime, especially for the hilly areas. Results of monthly rainfall series trend analysis further indicate that the shift is produced by a reduction of rainfall amount during the winter season, particular consistent over the Tyrrhenian side of the peninsula, and an increase during the summer season quite widespread over the whole investigated territory [6].
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GASAKe: forecasting landslide activations by a genetic-algorithms-based hydrological model

Oreste G. Terranova(1), Stefano Luigi Gariano(2,3), Pasquale Iaquinta(1), Giulio Iovine(1), 2015, GASAKe: forecasting landslide activations by a genetic-algorithms-based hydrological model, Geoscientific model development (Online) 8 (2015): 1955–1978. doi_10.5194/gmd-8-1955-2015,

DOI: 10.5194%2Fgmd-8-1955-2015

Abstract
GASAKe is a new hydrological model aimed at forecasting the triggering of landslides. The model ...
GASAKe is a new hydrological model aimed at forecasting the triggering of landslides. The model is based on genetic algorithms and allows one to obtain thresholds for the prediction of slope failures using dates of landslide activations and rainfall series. It can be applied to either single landslides or a set of similar slope movements in a homogeneous environment. Calibration of the model provides families of optimal, discretized solutions (kernels) that maximize the fitness function. Starting from the kernels, the corresponding mobility functions (i.e., the predictive tools) can be obtained through convolution with the rain series. The base time of the kernel is related to the magnitude of the considered slope movement, as well as to the hydro-geological complexity of the site. Generally, shorter base times are expected for shallow slope instabilities compared to larger-scale phenomena. Once validated, the model can be applied to estimate the timing of future landslide activations in the same study area, by employing measured or forecasted rainfall series. Examples of application of GASAKe to a medium-size slope movement (the Uncino landslide at San Fili, in Calabria, southern Italy) and to a set of shallow landslides (in the Sorrento Peninsula, Campania, southern Italy) are discussed. In both cases, a successful calibration of the model has been achieved, despite unavoidable uncertainties concerning the dates of occurrence of the slope movements. In particular, for the Sorrento Peninsula case, a fitness of 0.81 has been obtained by calibrating the model against 10 dates of landslide activation; in the Uncino case, a fitness of 1 (i.e., neither missing nor false alarms) has been achieved using five activations. As for temporal validation, the experiments performed by considering further dates of activation have also proved satisfactory. In view of early-warning applications for civil protection, the capability of the model to simulate the occurrences of the Uncino landslide has been tested by means of a progressive, self-adaptive procedure. Finally, a sensitivity analysis has been performed by taking into account the main parameters of the model. The obtained results are quite promising, given the high performance of the model against different types of slope instabilities characterized by several historical activations. Nevertheless, further refinements are still needed for application to landslide risk mitigation within early-warning and decision-support systems.
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Trends of Mean and Extreme Precipitation in Southern Italy

Tommaso Caloiero, Roberto Coscarelli, Ennio Ferrari, 2015, Trends of Mean and Extreme Precipitation in Southern Italy, 9th World Congress of EWRA "Water Resources Management in a Changing World_ Challenges and Opportunities", Istanbul, 10-13/06/2015,

Abstract
A modification in water cycle is one of the most noticeable consequences of global atmospheric ...
A modification in water cycle is one of the most noticeable consequences of global atmospheric warming. Precipitation is a key point in the hydrological process and the distribution of extreme rainfall is particularly important because it may impact on water management, soil erosion and flash floods. In this paper, an analysis of mean and extreme rainfall over a region of southern Italy (Calabria) has been carried using a daily homogeneous precipitation dataset of 129 rain gauges with more than 50 years of observation for the period 1916-2006. First, a statistical analysis was performed through the Mann-Kendall test in order to detect possible trends at annual, seasonal and monthly scale. Then, a set of indices derived from the daily homogeneous rainfall time series was defined and used to examine changes in extreme rainfall through non-parametric techniques. Results show a decreasing trend for annual and winter-autumn precipitation and an increasing trend for summer precipitation. Moreover, a prevailing decreasing trend of the various indices has been detected. These results appear to be in contrast with previous large scale studies which evidenced an increase in extreme rainfall and a decrease in the yearly totals, in other areas of Southern Europe. These differences in the behaviour of extreme rainfall suggest that a detailed regional analysis is always necessary because the distribution of extreme precipitation is often linked to the morphological settings of a territory (proximity to the sea, presence of reliefs, etc.).
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Analisi dei lunghi periodi secchi nell’ambito delle variazioni climatiche

R. Coscarelli, B. Sirangelo, T. Caloiero, E. Ferrari, 2015, Analisi dei lunghi periodi secchi nell’ambito delle variazioni climatiche, 36° CORSO IN TECNICHE PER LA DIFESA DALL'INQUINAMENTO, edited by Giuseppe Frega, pp. 155–180. Cosenza_ Edibios, 2015,

Abstract
La siccità rappresenta uno dei fenomeni naturali più dannosi, in termini sociali, economici, sanitari. Nella ...
La siccità rappresenta uno dei fenomeni naturali più dannosi, in termini sociali, economici, sanitari. Nella presente memoria vengono esposti alcuni dei metodi/modelli più utilizzati per l'analisi del fenomeno, distinguendo quelli che utilizzano dati mensili (indici di siccità) e quelli basati su approcci di tipo stocastico applicati su dati giornalieri. I risultati ottenuti per la Calabria, con entrambe le categorie di metodologia, evidenziano un trend positivo sia nel numero sia nelle durate dei periodi secchi
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Analysis of Dry Spells in Southern Italy (Calabria)

Tommaso Caloiero, Roberto Coscarelli, Ennio Ferrari, Beniamino Sirangelo, 2015, Analysis of Dry Spells in Southern Italy (Calabria), Water (Basel) 7 (2015): 3009–3023. doi_10.3390/w7063009,

DOI: 10.3390%2Fw7063009

Abstract
A deficit in precipitation may impact greatly on soil moisture, snowpack, stream flow, groundwater, and ...
A deficit in precipitation may impact greatly on soil moisture, snowpack, stream flow, groundwater, and reservoir storage. Among the several approaches available to analyze this phenomenon, one of the most applied is the analysis of dry spells. In this paper, an investigation of the spatial and temporal patterns of dry spells, in a region of southern Italy, has been carried out on a daily precipitation dataset. First, the frequency distributions of the sequences of dry days have been analyzed. Then, the regional areas most affected by dry events have been evaluated at annual and seasonal scale. Finally, the long-term trend of the dry spells has been estimated at annual and seasonal scale. Results show that the lower probabilities of long dry spells occur in the main reliefs of the region, while the highest values have been detected in the Ionian side. The spatial distribution of the mean and maximum length values of the dry spells evidenced a west-east gradient. The trend analysis mainly revealed a negative behavior in the duration of the dry spells at annual scale and a positive trend in the winter period.
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Detection of trends in extreme rainfall

Caloiero T.; Coscarelli R.; Ferrari E., 2015, Detection of trends in extreme rainfall, Monitoring, modelling and early warning of extreme events triggered by heavy rainfall, edited by Ferrari E.; Versace P., pp. 91–100. Cosenza_ Luigi Pellegrini, 2015,

Abstract
A modification in the water cycle is one of the most noticeable consequences of the ...
A modification in the water cycle is one of the most noticeable consequences of the global atmospheric warming. Precipitation is a key point in the process and the distribution of extreme rainfall is particularly important because it has the potential to impact on water management, soil erosion and flash floods. This study presents an analysis of extreme daily rainfall over a region of southern Italy. A set of daily homogeneous precipitation series relative to the period 1916-2006 has been used in this study, and nine daily rainfall indices have been considered. Results of the trend analysis through the Mann-Kendall test showed a prevailing decreasing trend of the various indices.
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Analyses of drought events in Calabria (Southern Italy) using Standardized Precipitation Index

Buttafuoco G., Caloiero T. , Coscarelli R., 2015, Analyses of drought events in Calabria (Southern Italy) using Standardized Precipitation Index, Water resources management (Dordr., Online) 29 (2015): 557–573. doi_10.1007/s11269-014-0842-5,

DOI: 10.1007%2Fs11269-014-0842-5

Abstract
A deficit in precipitation has different impacts on soil moisture, snowpack, streamflow, groundwater and reservoir ...
A deficit in precipitation has different impacts on soil moisture, snowpack, streamflow, groundwater and reservoir storage. In this study, drought, expressed using the SPI, has been analysed in a region of southern Italy (Calabria) using a homogenised and gap-filled database for 129 monthly rainfall series in the 1916-2006 period. Both the short-term (3 and 6 months) and the long-term (12 and 24 months) SPI were estimated and, in order to identify the worst events, the percentages of the regional area falling within severe or extreme dry conditions have been evaluated. With the aim to spatially characterize the most severe drought event, the SPI data were estimated at ungauged locations and mapped using a geostatistical approach. Finally, a time series analysis of long-term SPI was performed to detect possible trends. Results showed that several heavy drought episodes have widely affected the Calabria region and, among these events, the worst one occurred between December 2001 and April 2002. The trend analysis showed a reduction in the SPI values that is a tendency towards drier conditions, although the running trend approach, carried out only for the long-term SPI, revealed that this tendency is not persistent throughout the series length, but it depends on the period examined.
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Orographic signature on extreme precipitation of short durations

Avanzi, Francesco; De Michele, Carlo; Gabriele, Salvatore; Ghezzi, Antonio; Rosso, Renzo, 2015, Orographic signature on extreme precipitation of short durations, Journal of hydrometeorology (Online) 6 (2015): 278–294. doi_10.1175/JHM-D-14-0063.1,

DOI: 10.1175%2FJHM-D-14-0063.1

Abstract
This paper investigates how atmospheric circulation and orography affect the spatial variability of extreme precipitation ...
This paper investigates how atmospheric circulation and orography affect the spatial variability of extreme precipitation in terms of depth-duration-frequency (DDF) curve parameters. To this aim, the Italian territory was considered because it is characterized by a complex orography and different precipitation dynamics and regimes. A database of 1494 time series with more than 20 years of maximum annual precipitation data was collected for the durations of 1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 h. For each data series, the parameters of DDF curves were estimated using a statistical simple scale invariance model. Hence, the combined effect of orography and atmospheric fields on parameter variability was investigated considering the spatial distribution of the parameters and their relation with elevation. The vertically integrated atmospheric moisture flux J was used as a measurement of the principal direction of the vapor transport at a given location. The analysis highlights the variability of DDF parameters and quantiles according to orography and precipitation climatology. This is confirmed by the evaluation of J modal direction over the study area. The variability of DDF parameters with mere elevation shows that maxima at high elevations seem to be upper bounded and more variable than those at lower elevations. Moreover, the mean of maximum annual precipitation of unit duration decreases with elevation. This last phenomenon is defined as "reverse orographic effect" on extreme precipitation of short durations.
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Spatial and temporal features of heavy rainstorm events in Calabria, Southern Italy

Oreste Giuseppe Terranova (1), Stefano Luigi Gariano (2,3), and Raffaele Greco (1), 2015, Spatial and temporal features of heavy rainstorm events in Calabria, Southern Italy, Geophysical research abstracts (Online) 17 (2015): EGU2015-2008.,

Abstract
Heavy rainstorms often induce flash floods, shallow landslides and debris flows, which cause several damage ...
Heavy rainstorms often induce flash floods, shallow landslides and debris flows, which cause several damage to manmade infrastructures and loss of lives. The analysis of spatial distribution and temporal features of intense rainfall events is a fundamental step for a better understanding of the phenomena and for its possible prediction. The present study is an attempt to improve, from a statistical point of view, the understanding at sub-hourly scale of the temporal and spatial structure of intense rainfall events, by examining those that have hit Calabria (Southern Italy) in the years 1998-2008. More in detail, a considerable amount of series with high temporal detail (5 min) related to 155 sites (one rain gauge per less than 100 sq km), were analysed. First, more than 152 thousands rainfall events, separated by at least 6 hours of dry weather, were recognized. Then, less than a third (45,533) were selected, since denoted as erosive. Finally, several heavy rainstorm events (HREs) were chosen by considering the rainfall events recorded simultaneously at different rain gauges, even non-contiguous, within the region. In particular, this further selection was conducted, based on heuristic threshold values of cumulated rainfall ( 100 mm), maximum intensity ( 50 mm/h), and kinetic energy ( 29 MJ/ha). Therefore, 25 distinct HREs, including all the well-known catastrophic geo-hydrological events, were subjected to thorough investigation. The obtained HREs, automatically classified according to their structure in time, were analysed as regards both spatial and temporal evolution. At this end, the 25 HREs were distinguished as widespread (17) or localized (8), if the affected area is 500 sq km or < 500 sq km, respectively. In particular, the temporal storm structure was described by means of the standardized rainfall profile (rainfall amount vs. duration, in terms on cumulative percentages). Then, a 4-digit binary shape code was adopted to automatically identify the shape of the profile (Terranova and Iaquinta, 2011; Terranova and Gariano, 2014). HREs have different spatial extents and temporal patterns. A wide spatial extent of the events does not imply damage proportionally high. Generally, a peak at the beginning of the event (thunderstorm-type) characterizes localized events. On the contrary, widespread events present mixed temporal structures with peaks localized in the last half of their duration. The proposed method improves the knowledge regarding the input of rainfall-runoff watershed models. These models can benefit from design storms, based on the synthesis of recorded rainstorms, having a time structure integrated with the results of the spatial analysis. The notable size of the employed sample, including data with a very detailed time resolution that relate to several rain gauges well distributed throughout the region, gives robustness to the obtained results. References O.G. Terranova, and P. Iaquinta.: Temporal properties of rainfall events in Calabria (southern Italy). Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 751-757, 2011. O.G. Terranova, and S.L. Gariano.: Rainstorms able to induce flash floods in a Mediterranean-climate region (Calabria, southern Italy). Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2423-2434, 2014.
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Time evolution of landslide damages to buildings_ the case study of Lungro (Calabria, southern Italy)

Antronico L.; Borrelli L.; Coscarelli R.; Gulla G., 2015, Time evolution of landslide damages to buildings_ the case study of Lungro (Calabria, southern Italy), Bulletin of engineering geology and the environment (Print) 74 (2015): 47–59. doi_10.1007/s10064-014-0591-y,

DOI: 10.1007/s10064-014-0591-y

Abstract
In the last decades, building damage caused by landslides in urban areas has increased due ...
In the last decades, building damage caused by landslides in urban areas has increased due to the rapid growth of urbanization even on landslide-prone slopes. This work presents the analysis results of landslide damage evolution by means of a macrodamage index in relation to the characteristics of landslides. The study area is located in southern Italy, and is affected by slow-moving landslides, which, over time, have caused relevant effects on the buildings. A series of geological and geomorphological studies and field surveys, supported by monitoring via conventional geotechnical techniques, allowed us to classify four categories of landslides based on the following criteria_ landslide movement, type of material and estimated depth. Detailed field surveys aimed at evaluating distribution and evolution of the damage to buildings located within and near the unstable area were carried out in 2005 and 2011. The evaluation of the macrodamage index in two different years enabled us to directly correlate the features of the landslide categories and their effects on the urban fabric. © 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.
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Map: Weathering grade in granitoid rocks_ The San Giovanni in Fiore area (Calabria, Italy)

Borrelli L., Coniglio S., Critelli S., La Barbera A., Gullà G., 2015, Map: Weathering grade in granitoid rocks_ The San Giovanni in Fiore area (Calabria, Italy), 2015,

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Validation and evaluation of epistemic uncertainty in rainfall thresholds for regional scale landslide forecasting

Stefano Luigi Gariano (1,2), Maria Teresa Brunetti (1), Giulio Iovine (3), Massimo Melillo (1), Silvia Peruccacci (1), Oreste Giuseppe Terranova (3), Carmela Vennari (4), and Fausto Guzzetti (1), 2015, Validation and evaluation of epistemic uncertainty in rainfall thresholds for regional scale landslide forecasting, Geophysical research abstracts (Online) 17 (2015): EGU2015-3399-1–EGU2015-3399-1.,

Abstract
Prediction of rainfall-induced landslides can rely on empirical rainfall thresholds. These are obtained from the ...
Prediction of rainfall-induced landslides can rely on empirical rainfall thresholds. These are obtained from the analysis of past rainfall events that have (or have not) resulted in slope failures. Accurate prediction requires reliable thresholds, which need to be validated before their use in operational landslide warning systems. Despite the clear relevance of validation, only a few studies have addressed the problem, and have proposed and tested robust validation procedures. We propose a validation procedure that allows for the definition of optimal thresholds for early warning purposes. The validation is based on contingency table, skill scores, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. To establish the optimal threshold, which maximizes the correct landslide predictions and minimizes the incorrect predictions, we propose an index that results from the linear combination of three weighted skill scores. Selection of the optimal threshold depends on the scope and the operational characteristics of the early warning system. The choice is made by selecting appropriately the weights, and by searching for the optimal (maximum) value of the index. We discuss weakness in the validation procedure caused by the inherent lack of information (epistemic uncertainty) on landslide occurrence typical of large study areas. When working at the regional scale, landslides may have occurred and may have not been reported. This results in biases and variations in the contingencies and the skill scores. We introduce two parameters to represent the unknown proportion of rainfall events (above and below the threshold) for which landslides occurred and went unreported. We show that even a very small underestimation in the number of landslides can result in a significant decrease in the performance of a threshold measured by the skill scores. We show that the variations in the skill scores are different for different uncertainty of events above or below the threshold. This has consequences in the ROC analysis. We applied the proposed procedure to a catalogue of rainfall conditions that have resulted in landslides, and to a set of rainfall events that - presumably - have not resulted in landslides, in Sicily, in the period 2002-2012. First, we determined regional event duration-cumulated event (ED) rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide occurrence using 200 rainfall conditions that have resulted in 223 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002-2011. Next, we validated the thresholds using 29 rainfall conditions that have triggered 42 shallow landslides in Sicily in 2012, and 1250 rainfall events that presumably have not resulted in landslides in the same year. We performed a back analysis simulating the use of the thresholds in a hypothetical landslide warning system operating in 2012.
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Weathering grade in granitoid rocks_ The San Giovanni in Fiore area (Calabria, Italy)

Borrelli L., Coniglio S., Critelli S., La Barbera A., Gullà G., 2015, Weathering grade in granitoid rocks_ The San Giovanni in Fiore area (Calabria, Italy), Journal of maps (2015). doi_10.1080/17445647.2015.1010742,

DOI: 10.1080%2F17445647.2015.1010742

Abstract
This paper illustrates the methodology and techniques for the compilation of a thematic (engineering) geological ...
This paper illustrates the methodology and techniques for the compilation of a thematic (engineering) geological map based on detailed mapping of the weathering grade of crystalline rocks occurring in a portion of the Sila Massif close to the San Giovanni in Fiore Village (Calabria, Italy). The map (1:5000 scale), covering an area of about 20 km2, was compiled combining new geological and structural data with the results of a weathering grade field survey. The methodology, used to distinguish and map the weathering grade classes, was performed using qualitative criteria, semi-quantitative tests, and petrographic analysis of weathered rock samples. The Main Map, presented in this paper, aims to provide a useful tool for land-use planning, for geological hazard assessment and engineering perspectives.
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Calibration and validation of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide forecasting in Sicily, southern Italy

Stefano Luigi Gariano (a,b), Maria Teresa Brunetti (a,b), Giulio Iovine (c), Massimo Melillo (a), Silvia Peruccacci (a), Oreste Terranova (c), Carmela Vennari (d,e), Fausto Guzzetti (c), 2015, Calibration and validation of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide forecasting in Sicily, southern Italy, Geomorphology (Amst.) 228 (2015): 653–665. doi_10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.10.019,

DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.geomorph.2014.10.019

Abstract
Empirical rainfall thresholds are tools to forecast the possible occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. Accurate ...
Empirical rainfall thresholds are tools to forecast the possible occurrence of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. Accurate prediction of landslide occurrence requires reliable thresholds, which need to be properly validated before their use in operational warning systems. We exploited a catalogue of 200 rainfall conditions that have resulted in at least 223 shallow landslides in Sicily, southern Italy, in the 11-year period 2002-2011, to determine regional event duration-cumulated event rainfall (ED) thresholds for shallow landslide occurrence. We computed ED thresholds for different exceedance probability levels and determined the uncertainty associated to the thresholds using a consolidated bootstrap nonparametric technique. We further determined subregional thresholds, and we studied the role of lithology and seasonal periods in the initiation of shallow landslides in Sicily. Next, we validated the regional rainfall thresholds using 29 rainfall conditions that have resulted in 42 shallow landslides in Sicily in 2012. We based the validation on contingency tables, skill scores, and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis for thresholds at different exceedance probability levels, from 1% to 50%. Validation of rainfall thresholds is hampered by lack of information on landslide occurrence. Therefore, we considered the effects of variations in the contingencies and the skill scores caused by lack of information. Based on the results obtained, we propose a general methodology for the objective identification of a threshold that provides an optimal balance between maximization of correct predictions and minimization of incorrect predictions, including missed and false alarms. We expect that the methodology will increase the reliability of rainfall thresholds, fostering the operational use of validated rainfall thresholds in operational early warning system for regional shallow landslide forecasting.
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Short-term evolution of an active basin-fan system, Aspromonte, south Italy

(1) Antronico L.; (2) Greco R.; (3) Robustelli G.; (1) Sorriso-Valvo M., 2015, Short-term evolution of an active basin-fan system, Aspromonte, south Italy, Geomorphology (Amst.) 228 (2015): 536–551. doi_10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.10.013,

DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.geomorph.2014.10.013

Abstract
Alluvial fans are widespread throughout Calabria (southern Italy), but only a minority of them show ...
Alluvial fans are widespread throughout Calabria (southern Italy), but only a minority of them show evidence of current activity. By means of interpretation of aerial photographs, orthophotos and satellite images, comparison of topographic maps, reconstruction of major rainfall events, and geomorphologic and sedimentologic field observations, we reconstructed the recent history of the geomorphic and sedimentation events and the consequent morphological changes of an active basin-fan system merging with the bed of an ephemeral stream locally named fiumara. The case study is located along the Ionian side of the Aspromonte massif, a sector of Calabria where mass movement, intensive erosion, and channel mass transport are the predominant morphodynamic processes.Evidence is available of large volumes of debris produced by mass movements and erosion processes affecting the upper sector of the feeder basin. The aggressive climate with intense winter storms is the principal cause of erosion and mass movements. Largest rainfall events occurred in clusters of 4-6 events between the 1930s and the early 1970s, at roughly 20-year time intervals. The development of the fan appeared as incipient in 1955 air photos. Activity continues today, with events of sediment output from the feeder basin. Large rainfall events are reflected, with a delay of ca. eight years, by aggradation/dissection and progradation/retrogradation cycles in the feeder channel and the fan, respectively. Mutual interference between fan development and human activity exists, as well as does the interaction between the fan progradation and the floods of the receiving fiumara stream.Based on the aforementioned survey tools, two almost 10-year cycles were recognised. Feeder channel aggradation, owing to the debris input of the feeder subbasin and to the presence of check dams built along the feeder channel, continues until the channel slope reaches a threshold value. This can also be caused by the trimming of the fan toe by the fiumara. The stored alluvium is therefore released, resulting in progradation at the fan site until the feeder channel slope decreases. Subsequently, a renewed cycle starts again in response to sediment input from the source area.The morphological and sedimentological evolution of the active basin-fan system indicates how short-term trends and cyclic modifications of such systems can be important, especially where tributary basins join larger stream beds of a fiumara-type torrent.
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Monitoring of an ancient landslide phenomenon by GBSAR technique in the Maierato town (Calabria, Italy)

Nico G., Borrelli L., Di Pasquale A., Antronico L., Gullà G., 2015, Monitoring of an ancient landslide phenomenon by GBSAR technique in the Maierato town (Calabria, Italy), Engineering Geology for Society and Territory, pp. 129–133, Turin, 2015,

Abstract
The work deals the monitoring of a single ancient landslide detected in the Vonace area, southwards ...
The work deals the monitoring of a single ancient landslide detected in the Vonace area, southwards of Maierato (Calabria, Italy). A 18-hour-measurement campaign has been carried out using the Ground-based Synthetic Aperture Radar (GBSAR) interferometry technique carried between March, 25th and 26th. Displacement maps have been geolocated and overlaid to a Digital Elevation Model of the scene. It has been observed that the Vonace area is almost stable except two portions located at the foot of the ancient landslide and at the centre of the town, respectively. In both cases, a maximum displacement of about 0.5 mm has been measured. A further campaign is needed to confirm this displacement.
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Landslide activity and integrated monitoring network_ the Greci slope (Lago, Calabrias, Italy)

Calcaterra S., Gambino P., Borrelli L., Muto F., Gullà G., 2015, Landslide activity and integrated monitoring network_ the Greci slope (Lago, Calabrias, Italy), Engineering Geology for Society and Territory, pp. 1065–1068, Turin, 2015,

Abstract
A deep-seated gravitational slope deformation (DSGSD) and a number of landslides of different thickness and types ...
A deep-seated gravitational slope deformation (DSGSD) and a number of landslides of different thickness and types affect the Greci slope (Lago, Calabria, Italy). The geological settlement of the area is characterized by the presence of tectono-metamorphic thrust sheet belonging to the Calabrian belt. The study concerns a moderately urbanized area, crossed by an important road, where the lithological-structural and hydrogeological conditions predispose to slope instabilities. This paper deals with the kinematic characteristics relative to the instability mechanisms in the Greci slope, defined with a long term monitoring. Specialized monitoring networks have been progressively realized since 1996 to measure the surficial and deep displacements (GPS benchmarks, GPS permanent stations and inclinometer verticals). After a period of continuous and intense rainfall (2008-2010), a detailed landslides inventory map has been prepared to update the landslides boundaries. The new elements and data acquired confirm that the mass movements mechanisms in the Greci slope are characterized by extremely slow or very slow rate of displacements (Cruden and Varnes classification). Moreover, new knowledge demonstrate the landslides may significantly accelerate and affect structures and infrastructures.
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Numerical modelling to calibrate the geotechnical model of a deep-seated landslide in weathered crystalline rocks_ Acri (Calabria, Italy)

Maiorano S.C., Borrelli L., Moraci N., Gullà G., 2015, Numerical modelling to calibrate the geotechnical model of a deep-seated landslide in weathered crystalline rocks_ Acri (Calabria, Italy), Engineering Geology for Society and Territory, pp. 1271–1274, Turin, 2015,

Abstract
Crystalline rocks are often subjected to several types of mass movements, depending on their weathering grade. ...
Crystalline rocks are often subjected to several types of mass movements, depending on their weathering grade. These rocks are present in the European area along the Italian and French Alps, in the North-East area of Portugal, in the Sierra Nevada Massif (Spain) and in Greece. In particular, crystalline rocks are also widespread in Calabria and a high percentage of these rocks is present in the Sila, Serre and Aspromonte Massifs. Fresh or weathered crystalline rocks, highly fractured, may be affected by deep-seated landslides due to the presence of tectonic structures, which may predispose and control the landslide mechanisms. The Serra di Buda landslide, near the town of Acri (Cosenza), can be included among the deep-seated landslides which affect weathered crystalline rocks. Starting from the geological model, the analysis of the geotechnical data (digital terrain model, borehole logs, piezometer levels, superficial and deep displacements, geomaterial characteristics, etc.) allows to detect the uncertainties inherent the elements that concur to define the geotechnical model. To reduce some of these uncertainties a calibration by means of numerical modelling is carried out, and the results obtained show the usefulness of this approach.
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The use of DInSAR data for the analysis of building damage induced by slow-moving landslides

Ferlisi S., Peduto D., Gullà G., Nicodemo G., Borrelli L., Fornaro G., 2015, The use of DInSAR data for the analysis of building damage induced by slow-moving landslides, Engineering Geology for Society and Territory, pp. 1835–1839, 2015,

Abstract
The paper aims at checking the contribution that DInSAR data, processed via different algorithms, can provide ...
The paper aims at checking the contribution that DInSAR data, processed via different algorithms, can provide to the analysis of damages recorded to buildings located in slowmoving landslide affected areas. For this purpose, an urban area in Calabria region, southern Italy, was selected due to the availability of both DInSAR data since 1992 and historic information concerning damage data recorded via municipal ordinances. The combination of DInSAR data and the results of supplementary damage surveys allowed the preliminary investigation of a cause (maximum velocity)--effect (damage) relationship which, once validated, can be valuably used for damage analysis and forecasting.
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Shallow landslides triggered by consecutive rainfall events at Catanzaro strait (Calabria-Southern Italy)

Borrelli L.; Cofone G.; Coscarelli R.; Gulla G., 2015, Shallow landslides triggered by consecutive rainfall events at Catanzaro strait (Calabria-Southern Italy), Journal of maps 11 (2015): 730–744. doi_10.1080/17445647.2014.943814,

DOI: 10.1080%2F17445647.2014.943814

Abstract
This paper describes the activities conducted for the development of a thematic map of shallow ...
This paper describes the activities conducted for the development of a thematic map of shallow landslides (and other landforms) resulting from by consecutive rainfall events during the fallwinter seasons of 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 in the Catanzaro Strait (Central Calabria, South Italy). The methodology is based on the interpretation of Google Earth high-resolution satellite images (post-event images are dated 19th March 2010), followed by processing and management of the collected data through a geographic information system. The inventory covers a wide area (692 km2) and includes 3483 shallow landslides and many other geomorphological features (zones of incipient shallow landslides and areas affected by soil erosion) related to the 2008-2010 rainfall events. The map produced may provide useful data to define shallow landslide events, develop landscape evolution models and characterise active geomorphic processes. Furthermore, the map may also be used as a basic tool to produce landslide or erosion susceptibility maps, which can be used for land-use planning strategies and landslide hazard analyses.
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Spatial and temporal characterization of climate at regional scale using homogeneous monthly precipitation and air temperature data_ an application in Calabria (southern Italy)

T. Caloiero, G. Buttafuoco, R. Coscarelli, E. Ferrari, 2015, Spatial and temporal characterization of climate at regional scale using homogeneous monthly precipitation and air temperature data_ an application in Calabria (southern Italy), Hydrology research (Online) 46 (2015): 629–646. doi_10.2166/nh.2014.022,

DOI: 10.2166%2Fnh.2014.022

Abstract
In the present study an approach for a climate characterization based on a statistical analysis ...
In the present study an approach for a climate characterization based on a statistical analysis of monthly precipitation and temperature data is presented. First, the original database (1916-2010) was homogenized and a geostatistical analysis was carried out to characterize the monthly mean distribution of the two variables in the study area. Then, temporal change of precipitation and temperature were evaluated through the Mann-Kendall test. Finally, to better assess the climate patterns in Calabria, a climatic characterization was carried out by means of the Péguy climograph. Results have shown a decreasing trend for autumn-winter rainfall and an increasing trend in summer. With respect to the average temperature, the analyses revealed a positive trend in late spring and summer, mainly due to the increase in the minimum values, and a negative trend in the autumn-winter period, mainly due to a decrease in the maximum values. The analysis of the Péguy climographs allowed the dataset to be divided into three groups, depending on the different elevation of the gauges. Moreover, different temporal behaviours were detected by analysing the climographs in three sub-periods.
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A stochastic model for the analysis of the temporal change of dry spells

B. Sirangelo, T. Caloiero, R. Coscarelli, E. Ferrari, 2015, A stochastic model for the analysis of the temporal change of dry spells, Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment (Print) 29 (2015): 143–155. doi_10.1007/s00477-014-0904-5,

DOI: 10.1007%2Fs00477-014-0904-5

Abstract
In the present paper a stochastic approach which considers the arrival of rainfall events as ...
In the present paper a stochastic approach which considers the arrival of rainfall events as a Poisson process is proposed to analyse the sequences of no rainy days. Particularly, among the different Poisson models, a non-homogeneous Poisson model was selected and then applied to the daily rainfall series registered at the Cosenza rain gauge (Calabria, southern Italy), as test series. The aim was to evaluate the different behaviour of the dry spells observed in two different 30-year periods, i.e. 1951-1980 and 1981-2010. The analyses performed through Monte Carlo simulations assessed the statistical significance of the variation of the mean expected values of dry spells observed at annual scale in the second period with respect to those observed in the first. The model has then been verified by comparing the results of the test series with the ones obtained from other three rain gauges of the same region. Moreover, greater occurrence probabilities for long dry spells in 1981-2010 than in 1951-1980 were detected for the test series. Analogously, the return periods evaluated for fixed long dry spells through the synthetic data of the period 1981-2010 resulted less than half of the corresponding ones evaluated with the data generated for the previous 30-year period.
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Effects of damaging geo-hydrological events on people_ an insight into physical causes and individual behaviours

Olga Petrucci, 2014, Effects of damaging geo-hydrological events on people_ an insight into physical causes and individual behaviours, 8th HYMEX Int. Workshop, La Valletta, 17/09/2014,

Abstract
Effects of damaging geo-hydrological events on people_ an insight into physical causes and individual behaviours ...
Effects of damaging geo-hydrological events on people_ an insight into physical causes and individual behaviours
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The November 2013 transnational damaging event_ causes and effects in Catalonia, Calabria and Balearic Islands

olga petrucci, 2014, The November 2013 transnational damaging event_ causes and effects in Catalonia, Calabria and Balearic Islands, 8th HYMEX Int. Workshop, La Valletta, 17/09/2014,

Abstract
The November 2013 transnational damaging event_ causes and effects in Catalonia, Calabria and Balearic Islands ...
The November 2013 transnational damaging event_ causes and effects in Catalonia, Calabria and Balearic Islands
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