Pubblicazioni
Publications found: 1347
A flood mortality index in the Mediterranean basin
Freddy Vinet (1), Olga Petrucci (2), Katerina Papagiannaki (4), Laurent Boissier (1), Luigi Aceto (2), Miquel Grimalt (3), Vassiliki Kotroni (4), Maria Carmen Llasat (5), Montserrat Llasat-Botija (5), Angela Aurora Pasqua (2), Joan Rosselló (3), 2018, A flood mortality index in the Mediterranean basin,
11th HyMeX workshop, Lecce, 29 May - 2 June 2018,,
Abstract
Collecting and studying the mortality during flood events came up as a relevant issue on ...
Collecting and studying the mortality during flood events came up as a relevant issue on the last ten years_ i) to assess the impacts of floods, ii) to assess prevention policies and iii) to improve prevention measures. The building of the MEditerranean Flood Fatalities (MEFF) database has been a first step to address flood related mortality in the Mediterranean basin. Data on the circumstances of death during flood events and the profile of dead people has been collected and put together for five Mediterranean regions_ Catalonia (Spain), Balearic Islands (Spain), southern France, Greece, Calabria (Italy). The period covered goes from 1980 to 2015. Till now, a first step to explore the interest of the database has been the analysis of raw data to show the general features of flood related mortality. But the raw data show strong discrepancies between regions/countries and periods regarding the number of fatalities and the profile of dead people. To go further, this presentation proposes to build a flood mortality index that can express mortality in relative terms. Flood related fatalities are linked to people at risk and a mortality index is calculated per million of exposed people. This Index might allow comparing the "weight" of flood related mortality through periods and between regions. Further exploration is tested to integrate hazard data (rainfall or discharge e.g. in terms of return period) as an explanatory variable of flood mortality.
People Vulnerability to Damaging Hydrogeological Events in a Mediterranean region
Olga Petrucci, Luigi Aceto, Angela Aurora Pasqua, 2018, People Vulnerability to Damaging Hydrogeological Events in a Mediterranean region,
11th HyMeX workshop, Lecce, 29 May - 2 June 2018,
Abstract
Background: Damaging Hydrogeological Events (DHEs) are severe weather periods during which floods, landslides, lightning, windstorms, ...
Background: Damaging Hydrogeological Events (DHEs) are severe weather periods during which floods, landslides, lightning, windstorms, hail or storm surges can harm people. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency/intensity of DHEs and, consequently, the potential harm to people.
Method_ We investigated the impacts of DHEs on people in Calabria (Italy) over 37 years (1980-2016). Data on 7288 people physically affected by DHEs were gathered from the systematic analysis of regional newspapers and collected in the database named PEOPLE. The damage was codified in three severity levels as follows_ fatalities (people who were killed), injured (people who suffered physical harm) and involved (people who were present at the place where an accident occurred but survived and were not harmed). During the study period, we recorded 68 fatalities, 566 injured and 6654 people involved in the events.
Results_ Males were more frequently killed, injured and involved than females, and females who suffered fatalities were older than males who suffered fatalities, perhaps indicating that younger females tended to be more cautious than same-aged males, while older females showed an intrinsic greater vulnerability. Involved people were younger than injured people and fatalities, suggesting that younger people show greater promptness in reacting to dangerous situations. Floods caused the majority of the fatalities, injured and involved people, followed by landslides. Lightning was the most dangerous phenomenon, and it affected a relatively low number of people, killing 11.63% of them and causing injuries to 37.2%. Fatalities and injuries mainly occurred outdoors, largely along roads. In contrast, people indoors, essentially in public or private buildings, were more frequently involved without suffering harm. Being "dragged by water/mud" and "surrounded by water/mud", respectively, represented the two extremes of dynamic dangerousness. The dragging effect of rapid-flowing water totally or partially obstructed the attempts of people to save their lives. In contrast, people surrounded by steady water/mud encountered difficulties but ultimately could survive. Conclusions_ The study outcomes can be used in informational campaigns to increase risk awareness among both administrators and citizens and to improve community resilience, particularly in promoting self-protective behaviors and avoiding the underestimation of hazardous situations.
Detection and analysis of severe dry hydrological phenomena in southern Italy (Calabria region)
Tommaso Caloiero, Roberto Coscarelli, Ennio Ferrari, 2018, Detection and analysis of severe dry hydrological phenomena in southern Italy (Calabria region),
Geophysical research abstracts (Online) (2018).,
Abstract
Although people usually do not think of droughts in the same way as other natural ...
Although people usually do not think of droughts in the same way as other natural disasters, such as floods or hurricanes, drought phenomena are one of the greatest damaging climate events. In fact, the economic, social, and environmental costs and losses associated with drought are increasing dramatically, even though it is difficult to quantify this trend precisely because of the lack of reliable historical estimates of losses. The detection of several drought features, such as its intensity, duration, recurrence probability and spatial extent, is thus necessary also in order to alleviate the impacts of droughts. In this study, drought, expressed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), has been analyzed in a region of southern Italy (Calabria) using a homogeneous database of 24 monthly rainfall series in the 1951-2016 period. First, both the short-term (3 months) and the long-term (24 months) SPI were estimated and, in order to identify the worst events, the percentages of rain gauges falling within severe or extreme dry conditions have been evaluated. Indeed, it is generally agreed that the SPI on short-term scales describes drought affecting vegetation and agricultural practices, while on long-term scales it is a broad proxy for water resource management. The occurrence frequencies of severe/extreme droughts have been then evaluated for each rain gauge and, finally, possible trends in the SPI values have been detected by means of the Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), which allows the trend identification of the low, medium and high values of a series. As a result, considering the 3-month SPI an increase in the occurrence frequency of severe and extreme drought events has been detected from the late 1970s to the early 2000. As to what concerns the 12-month SPI, droughts resulted more frequent throughout the 1980s and the 1990s and at beginning of this century. Results of the trend analysis showed a general reduction of the SPI values, thus evidencing a tendency towards heavier droughts and weaker wet periods.
Regional-scale evaluation of past and future impacts of climate and environmental changes in rainfall-induced landslide occurrence
Stefano Luigi Gariano (1), Guido Rianna (2), Olga Petrucci (3), Monia Santini (4), and Fausto Guzzetti (5), 2018, Regional-scale evaluation of past and future impacts of climate and environmental changes in rainfall-induced landslide occurrence,
European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2018, pp. EGU2018-12272–EGU2018-12272, Vienna, 08-13/04/2018,
Abstract
Scientific community recognizes warming of the Earth climate system unequivocal. The warming could induce substantial ...
Scientific community recognizes warming of the Earth climate system unequivocal. The warming could induce substantial climate changes (CC) with relevant variations due to the region, weather patterns and time horizon of interest. In this perspective, the impact of CC on weather-induced disasters represents a crucial topic also due to the associated high socio-economic costs. However, the quantitative evaluation of the impact of CC on landslide occurrence, activity, and frequency remains a complex scientific question. Moreover, also land use and land cover
(LULC), and their variations, affect landslide occurrence and the related risk.
According to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an increase in the frequency and the intensity of extreme rainfall is expected in the Mediterranean area. This might result in a variation in the temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall-induced landslides, and in an increase in the size of the population exposed to landslide risk.
Exploiting detailed landslide information, climatic, and LULC data, and future projections in a Mediterranean region (Calabria, Southern Italy), we propose three linked methods - quantitative and reproducible - for the regionalscale evaluation of past and future variations in the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides, in response to changes in climate (rainfall regimes) and LULC.
First, using historical landslide information and daily rainfall in Calabria between 1921 and 2010, we study the temporal and the geographical variation in the occurrence of 1466 Rainfall Events with Landslides (REL; the occurrence of at least 1 landslide during or immediately after a rainfall event) and in their impact on the population.
We find changes in the geographical and temporal distributions of REL, and in their rainfall characteristics. In addition, we evaluate the impact of the events on the population, revealing a complex picture of changes. Second, we use a subset of the previous dataset, related to the reference period 1981-2010, and high-resolution climate projections based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the future period 2036-2065. Calculating correlations between REL occurrence and weather variables estimated in the reference period, we assess future variations in REL occurrence, expecting a substantial regional increase in REL occurrence for the period 2036-2065, under both scenarios. We also investigate future variations in the impact of REL on the population, finding higher increases.
Third, using the whole landslide dataset and two maps of LULC of the region (released in 1956 and 2000) we define empirical relationships linking the observed LULC variations to landslide occurrence, finding changes in the spatial distribution of landslides. Then, we calculate the projected variations (to year 2050) in landslide occurrence related to 32 scenarios of LULC changes, revealing a modest increase in landslide occurrence in all of them.
We uphold that the observed and the projected variations in the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides in the study area are related to interlaced changes in triggering, environmental, and societal components.
Quality control and homogenization benchmarking-based progress from the INDECIS Project
Enric Aguilar, Gerard van der Schrier, José Antonio Guijarro, Petr Stepanek, Pavel Zahradnicek, Javier Sigró, Roberto Coscarelli, Erik Engström, Mary Curley, Tommaso Caloiero, Llorenç Lledó, Jaume Ramon, Maria Antónia Valente, 2018, Quality control and homogenization benchmarking-based progress from the INDECIS Project,
Geophysical research abstracts (Online) (2018).,
Abstract
The project "Integrated approach for the development across Europe of user oriented climate indicators for ...
The project "Integrated approach for the development across Europe of user oriented climate indicators for GFCS
high-priority sectors_ agriculture, disaster risk reduction, energy, health, water and tourism", INDECIS, has as a
core part of its development a Work Package dedicated to the improvement of quality control and homogenization
techniques based on benchmarking approaches.
INDECIS is working in the improvement of quality control (QC) and homogenization techniques at the daily scale
for the variables contained in the European Climat Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D). In particular, the project
is using two test regions (Slovenia and South Sweden), which contain high density and quality data suitable for
benchmarking purposes.
The benchmarking process will be conducted following the usual steps_ creation of the homogeneous worlds,
introduction of quality control problems/inhomogeneities, application of quality control and homogenization
approaches and validations of the results.
The creation of the homogeneous worlds is done using Regional Climate Models and Reanalysis Data to extract
the long-term signals. The introduction of quality control problems and inhomogeneities is approached studying
the selected regions of the ECA&D dataset_ first, the frequency of QC issues and breakpoints will mimic the
frequency of such problems encountered in the current operational procedures of the ECA&D dataset. The
shape of the inhomogeneities, which represents a serious drawback to the attempts of benchmarking at the daily
resolution, is resolved using parallel measurements, both obtained from other datasets (e.g. ISTI-POST) or created
by swapping segments of neighboring stations. The application of available techniques is centralized with the
ProClimDB software, plus other stand-alone codes. Finally, a battery of validation measures will be applied
to identify the most suitable approaches for each variable. The last step will be an analysis of the uncertainty
introduced by the homogenization procedures.
INDECIS' work on homogenization is intended to be finalized by the end of 2018. In this contribution, we
concentrate on the description of the processes involved in the creation of the homogeneous worlds and their
corruption for benchmarking purposes.
The Project Indecis is part of ERA4CS , an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by FORMAS
(SE), DLR (DE), BMWFW (AT), IFD (DK), MINECO (ES), ANR (FR) with co-funding by the European Union
(Grant 690462).
Trend analysis of the effects of Damaging Hydrogeological Events on people in Calabria (Southern Italy)
Luigi Aceto, Angela Aurora Pasqua, Olga Petrucci, 2018, Trend analysis of the effects of Damaging Hydrogeological Events on people in Calabria (Southern Italy),
Geophysical research abstracts (Online) Vol. 20, EGU2018-7950-1 (2018).,
Abstract
Damaging Hydrogeological Events (DHEs) are severe weather periods during which floods, landslides, lightning,
windstorms, hail or ...
Damaging Hydrogeological Events (DHEs) are severe weather periods during which floods, landslides, lightning,
windstorms, hail or storm surges can harm people. This work aims to highlight the potentiality of historical
databases of damage caused by DHEs in the study of the effects on people. Particularly, the analysis aims to detect
modifications of risk conditions for people throughout the years, related either to change in the characteristics of
the events or to societal changes and modifications of people behaviour.
In order to do this, we investigated the impacts of DHEs on people in Calabria (Italy) over 37 years (1980-2016).
We gathered data by mean of the systematic analysis of regional newspapers and we collected them in the database
named PEOPLE. The damage was codified in three severity levels as follows_ fatalities (people who were killed),
injured (people who suffered physical harm) and involved (people who were present at the place where an accident
occurred but survived and were not harmed).
Throughout the study period, the analysis shows that, due to their daily displacements to reach places of work,
Calabrian males were more frequently killed, injured and involved outside (generally on the roads). On the
contrary, females, among who the percentage of working persons was lower, were more often affected indoor.
Younger females tended to be more cautious than same-aged males, while older females showed an intrinsic
greater vulnerability, resulting in relatively higher number of fatalities.
Involved people, both males and females, were younger than injured people and fatalities, suggesting that younger
people show greater promptness in reacting to dangerous situations. Floods caused the majority of the fatalities,
injured and involved people, followed by landslides. Lightning was the most dangerous phenomenon, and it
affected a relatively low number of people, killing 11.63% of them and causing injuries to 37.2%. Moreover, this
kind of phenomenon affected a decreasing number of people during the second half of the study period. This trend
can be partially related to the progressive shift of the population from rural to urban areas, as also detected in other
countries, during the twentieth century.
Fatalities and injuries mainly occurred outdoors, largely along roads. In contrast, people indoors were more
frequently involved without suffering harm. Being "dragged by water/mud" and "surrounded by water/mud",
respectively, represented the two extremes of dynamic dangerousness. The dragging effect of rapid-flowing water
totally or partially obstructed the attempts of people to save their lives. In contrast, people surrounded by steady
water/mud encountered difficulties but ultimately could survive.
The study results are useful in highlighting the trend of risky behaviours undertaken by people throughout the
years and the most frequent recent tendency to risky behaviours. This information can be used for informational
campaigns to increase risk awareness among both administrators and citizens and to improve resilience, promoting
self-protective behaviours and avoiding the underestimation of hazardous situations.
Examples of Application of GASAKe for Predicting the Occurrence of Rainfall-Induced Landslides in Southern Italy
Oreste Terranova (1), Stefano Luigi Gariano (2), Pasquale Iaquinta (1), Valeria Lupiano (1), Valeria Rago (1), Giulio Iovine (1), 2018, Examples of Application of GASAKe for Predicting the Occurrence of Rainfall-Induced Landslides in Southern Italy,
Geosciences (Basel) 8 (2018): 1–19. doi_10.3390/geosciences8020078,
DOI: 10.3390%2Fgeosciences8020078
Abstract
GASAKe is an empirical-hydrological model aimed at forecasting the time of occurrence of landslides. Activations ...
GASAKe is an empirical-hydrological model aimed at forecasting the time of occurrence of landslides. Activations can be predicted of either single landslides or sets of slope movements of the same type in a homogeneous environment. The model requires a rainfall series and a set of dates of landslide activation as input data. Calibration is performed through genetic algorithms, and allows for determining a family of optimal kernels to weight antecedent rainfall properly. As output, the mobility function highlights critical conditions of slope stability. Based on suitable calibration and validation samples of activation dates, the model represents a useful tool to be integrated in early-warning systems for geo-hydrological risk mitigation purposes. In the present paper, examples of application to three rock slides in Calabria and to cases of soil slips in Campania are discussed. Calibration and validation are discussed, based on independent datasets. Obtained results are either excellent for two of the Calabrian rock slides or just promising for the remaining case studies. The best performances of the model take advantage of an accurate knowledge of the activation history of the landslides, and a proper hydrological characterization of the sites. For such cases, GASAKe could be usefully employed within early-warning systems for geo-hydrological risk mitigation and Civil Protection purposes. Finally, a new release of the model is presently under test_ its innovative features are briefly presented.
A smart geotechnical model in emergency conditions_ A case study of a medium-deep landslide in Southern Italy
Giovanni GULLA'
Luigi ACETO
Loredana ANTRONICO
Luigi BORRELLI
Roberto COSCARELLI
Francesco PERRI, 2018, A smart geotechnical model in emergency conditions_ A case study of a medium-deep landslide in Southern Italy,
Engineering geology 234 (2018): 138–152. doi_10.1016/j.enggeo.2018.01.008,
DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.enggeo.2018.01.008
Abstract
Slope failures are the result of various predisposing factors (geo-structural and morphological conditions, topography,
geotechnical characteristics, ...
Slope failures are the result of various predisposing factors (geo-structural and morphological conditions, topography,
geotechnical characteristics, etc.). In an ordinary phase, a typical slope stability analysis includes the
identification of factors that can trigger a slope failure, its mechanisms, the modelling of stability conditions and
their assessment during critical situations. To define the predisposing and triggering factors, integrated monitoring
represents an essential and powerful tool. In this paper, referring to the case study of a medium-deep
landslide that occurred in Calabria (Southern Italy) during the winter of 2009-2010, a method and means of
defining an emergency geotechnical model (smart geotechnical model) using a geological model are proposed. The
definition of both models considers the resources that may be obtained in an emergency and the short time
available to achieve the objectives (protection of public and private safety, restoration of normal conditions,
etc.). The proposed method allows the orderly and systematic acquisition, under emergency conditions, of data
that are useful for the management of a particular situation and for defining an initial cognitive state of the
problem. These elements can be particularly effective in both emergency (to manage risk using progressively
quantitative knowledge) and ordinary conditions to plan, design, realize and manage definitive measures for risk
adaptation, mitigation and reduction. Moreover, the same knowledge can provide useful references to typify
landslides that occur in similar geo-environmental contexts.
2.03 – GIS and Soil
Federica Lucà , Gabriele Buttafuoco, Oreste Terranova, 2018, 2.03 – GIS and Soil,
Comprehensive Geographic Information Systems, edited by Bo Huang, pp. 37–50. Oxford_ Elsevier Ltd, 2018,
Abstract
Soil is a natural body consisting of layers (soil horizons) resulting from the interplay between ...
Soil is a natural body consisting of layers (soil horizons) resulting from the interplay between climate, topography, organisms, parent material (underlying geologic bedrock), and time. Accurate soil data are needed in order to develop reliable and high-resolution soil maps for hydrological analysis, environmental protection, agriculture, and forest management. The several items of information required for soil characterization, deriving from sources with different spatial resolution, can be easily stored and managed within a geographic information system (GIS). Digital soil mapping (DSM) allows one to analyze the relationships between soil properties and ancillary data (e.g., topographic attributes and remote/proximal sensing data) through several pedometric techniques. The article represents an attempt to synthesize the use of GIS in soil sciences at different spatial scale by (i) describing the increasing availability of ancillary data for soil characterization; (ii) illustrating the main relationships between soil properties and digital elevation model-derived topographic features; (iii) summarizing spatial and nonspatial pedometric techniques for analyzing and modeling soil properties; (iv) illustrating some applications of GIS in soil science also highlighting the contribution of DSM for land use planning and soil protection.
Soil-gas radon anomalies in three study areas of central-northern Calabria (southern Italy)
G. Iovine 1, I. Guagliardi 2, C. Bruno 1, R. Greco 1, A. Tallarico 3, G. Falcone 3, F. Lucà 2, G. Buttafuoco 2, 2018, Soil-gas radon anomalies in three study areas of central-northern Calabria (southern Italy),
Natural hazards (Dordr., Online) 91 (2018): 193–219. doi_10.1007/s11069-017-2839-x,
DOI: 10.1007%2Fs11069-017-2839-x
Abstract
Soil-gas radon concentrations and exhalation rates have generally been observed to be anomalously high along ...
Soil-gas radon concentrations and exhalation rates have generally been observed to be anomalously high along active faults in many parts of the world. The soil-gas method is based on the principle that faults and fractures in rocks are highly-permeable pathways along which gases can migrate upward from deep crust and mantle to soil cover, retaining their source signatures. The present study summarizes the influence of fault zones on anomalous radon concentrations in soil by integrated geophysical and geo-structural analyses in three study areas of Central-Northern Calabria (Southern Italy). Soil-gas radon surveys have been carried out by means of an alpha scintillation counting system, at 12,509 locations between 2002 and 2004. A geostatistical approach has been used to estimate the spatial distribution of soil radon concentrations. Relations among soil-gas distribution and geo-structural features have been evaluated by ordinary multi-Gaussian kriging.
Highest soil radon concentrations (ca. 90 kBq m-3) have been measured in the Rossanese sector. In the three study areas, no appreciable differences can be noticed among lithotypes, with the highest concentration values (ca. 89 kBq m-3) measured in alluvial deposit and in clay. Measurements of soil-gas radon reveal anomalies clearly connected to the tectonic structures. Increased signals are linearly distributed along regional WNW-ESE trending shear zones, with main pathways of concentration also recognizable along the E-W fault system in the Rossanese sector, the N-S fault system in the Crati Graben and the Catanzaro Trough, and the NE-SW fault system in the Catanzaro Trough. The distribution of epicentres of historical earthquakes occurred between 1184 and 2001 confirms the recent activity of the same fault systems. Soil-gas radon concentrations generally increase, as expected, with decreasing distance to the faults.
Effects of damaging hydrogeological events on people throughout 15 years in a Mediterranean region
Aceto Luigi, Pasqua Angela Aurora, Petrucci Olga, 2017, Effects of damaging hydrogeological events on people throughout 15 years in a Mediterranean region,
Advances in geosciences (Online) 44 (2017): 67–77.,
Abstract
Damaging Hydrogeological Events (DHE) are defined as rainy periods during which landslides and floods can ...
Damaging Hydrogeological Events (DHE) are defined as rainy periods during which landslides and floods can damage people. The paper investigated the effects of DHE on people living in Calabria (southern Italy) in the period 2000-2014, using data coming from the systematic survey of regional newspapers. Data about "fatalities", people "injured" and people "involved" (not killed neither hurt) were stored in the database named PEOPLE, made of three sections_ (1) event identification, (2) victim-event interaction, (3) effects on people. The outcomes highlighted vulnerability factors related to gender and age_ males were killed more frequently (75 %) than females (25 %), and fatalities were older (average age 49 years) than injured (40.1 years) and involved people (40.5 years). The average ages of females killed (67.5 years), injured (43.4 years) and involved (44.6 years) were higher than the same values assessed for males, maybe indicating that younger females tended to be more cautious than same-age males, while older females showed an intrinsic greater vulnerability. Involved people were younger than injured people and fatalities, perhaps because younger people show greater promptness to react in dangerous situations. In the study region, floods caused more fatalities (67.9 %), injured (55 %) and involved people (55.3 %) than landslides. Fatalities and injuries mainly occurred outdoor, especially along roads, and the most dangerous dynamic was to be dragged by flood, causing the majority of fatalities (71.4 %). These outcomes can be used to strengthen the strategies aimed at saving people, and to customise warning campaigns according to the local risk features and people's behaviour. The results can improve the understanding of the potential impacts of geo-hydrological hazards on the population and can increase risk awareness among both administrators and citizens.
Coping with floods in the Northern part of the Mediterranean_ the application of an international database on flood events for a 35 years period
olga petrucci, 2017, Coping with floods in the Northern part of the Mediterranean_ the application of an international database on flood events for a 35 years period,
10th HYMEX Int. Workshop, barcellona, 4/8/2017,
Abstract
Coping with floods in the Northern part of the Mediterranean_ the application of an international ...
Coping with floods in the Northern part of the Mediterranean_ the application of an international database on flood events for a 35 years period
Simulations of flow-like landslides invading urban areas_ a cellular automata approach with SCIDDICA
Lupiano, Valeria; Machado, Guillermo E.; Molina, Lorena P.; Crisci, Gino M.; Di Gregorio, Salvatore, 2017, Simulations of flow-like landslides invading urban areas_ a cellular automata approach with SCIDDICA,
Natural computing 17 (2017): 553–568. doi_10.1007/s11047-017-9632-3,
DOI: 10.1007%2Fs11047-017-9632-3
Abstract
Different methodologies are used for modelling flow-like landslides. A common critical point concerns the flooding ...
Different methodologies are used for modelling flow-like landslides. A common critical point concerns the flooding into town areas, which cannot be assimilated straight to a morphology, especially, when the urban tissue is very irregular with narrow streets and odd setting of buildings, so that discretization processes of approximating numerical methods have to be carefully examined in their limits. A semi-empirical approach by the computational paradigm of cellular automata is here considered with SCIDDICA, a competitive (related to PDE approach) cellular automata model for 3-dimensions simulation of flow-like landslides. This paper presents innovations to the transition function of SCIDDICA-SS2, which manage opportunely building data in the cells corresponding to the urban tissue. The novelties of the transition function need a theorem, here demonstrated which regards the Algorithm of Minimization of Differences in the new context of inhomogeneous cells. This progress permits to simulate the complete evolution of landslides, from the detachment area to its exhaustion almost on the same precision level. This is an advantage for hazard and risk analyses in threatened zones. Improved SCIDDICA-SS2 was applied successfully to all the well-known 2009 debris flows of Giampilieri Superiore (Sicily) also in comparison with simulation results of the previous versions.
The Role of Rainfall and Land Use
Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Petrucci, Olga; Guzzetti, Fausto, 2017, The Role of Rainfall and Land Use,
Landslides in Different Environments. Conference proceedings WLF 2017, edited by Matja? Miko?Vít VilímekYueping YinKyoji Sassa, pp. 339–345. London_ Springer, 2017,
Abstract
Urbanization in hazardous regions, the abandonment of rural and mountain areas, and
changed agricultural and forest ...
Urbanization in hazardous regions, the abandonment of rural and mountain areas, and
changed agricultural and forest practices have increased the impact of landslides through
the years. Hence, the changing climate variables, like rainfall, acted and will act on a
human-modified landscape. In this work, we analyze the role of rainfall variation and land
use/cover change in the occurrence of landslides in Calabria in the period 1921-2010.
Combining rainfall and landslide information, we reconstruct and analyze a catalogue of
1466 rainfall events with landslides (i.e., the occurrence of one or more landslide during or
immediately after a rainfall event). To investigate the impact of land use/cover changes in
the occurrence of landslides, we consider the "Land Use Map" made by the Italian National
Research Council and the Italian Touring Club in 1956, and the "CORINE Land Cover"
map released in 2000. Since our landslide catalogue is at municipality scale (i.e., for each
landslide we known the municipality in which it occurred), we attribute a prevailing land
use/cover class to each of the 409 municipalities of Calabria. We split the catalogue in two
subsets (1921-1965 and 1966-2010) and correlate the landslides occurred in the first period
to the 1956 land use and the landslides occurred in the second period to the 2000 land
cover. We find that_ (i) the geographical and the temporal distributions of rainfall-induced
landslides have changed in the observation period; (ii) land use/cover in Calabria has
changed between the two periods, with a huge decrease of arable land and an increase of
heterogeneous agricultural areas and forests; (iii) in both periods, most of the landslides
occurred in areas characterized by forests and arable land; (iv) in the second period, there
was an increase (decrease) of landslides occurred in agricultural areas (arable land).
DIRETTIVA Sistema di Allertamento regionale per il Rischio Meteo-idrogeologico e idraulico in Calabria (Approvata ed adottata con deliberazione della Giunta Regionale n. 535 del 15 Novembre 2017)
Tansi C., Cappadona P., Niccoli R., Russo L., Arcuri S., Versace P., Capparelli G., Petrucci O., 2017, DIRETTIVA Sistema di Allertamento regionale per il Rischio Meteo-idrogeologico e idraulico in Calabria (Approvata ed adottata con deliberazione della Giunta Regionale n. 535 del 15 Novembre 2017),
2017,
Abstract
DIRETTIVA Sistema di Allertamento regionale per il Rischio Meteo-idrogeologico e idraulico in Calabria ...
DIRETTIVA Sistema di Allertamento regionale per il Rischio Meteo-idrogeologico e idraulico in Calabria
Analysis of rainfall trend in southern Italy through the application of the ITA technique
Caloiero T., Coscarelli R., Ferrari E., 2017, Analysis of rainfall trend in southern Italy through the application of the ITA technique,
10th WORLD CONGRESS on Water Resources and Environment "Panta Rhei", pp. 98–98, Atene, 5-9 Luglio 2017,
Abstract
In the last decades, climate change has been the focus of considerable international attention due ...
In the last decades, climate change has been the focus of considerable international attention due to the increase of phenomena such as flood, heat waves, forest fires and droughts. In this context, research on the patterns of precipitation trends, both at regional and local scale, has been paramount because these variations can negatively impact on ecosystems, agriculture, water supply and management, human welfare and regional political stability. In this paper, an investigation of the temporal rainfall variability has been carried out using a homogeneous monthly rainfall dataset of 559 rain gauges with more than 50 years of observation. The region under investigation is a large portion of the Italian peninsula, ranging from the Campania and the Apulia regions in the North, to Sicily in the South, and covering an area of about 85,000 km2. Possible trends in monthly and seasonal rainfall values have been investigated by means of a new graphical methodology (Innovative Trend Analysis), which allows the trend identification of the low, medium and high values of a series. As a result, different values and tendencies of the highest and the lowest rainfall values have emerged among the five regions considered in the analysis. Especially at seasonal scale, a negative trend has been detected in winter and in autumn in the whole study area, whereas not well defined trend signals have been identified in summer and spring.
Siti minerari dismessi in aree in frana_ l’ex miniera di sale di Lungro (Calabria)
Antronico L., Gullà G., 2017, Siti minerari dismessi in aree in frana_ l’ex miniera di sale di Lungro (Calabria),
Cavità di origine antropica, modalità d'indagine, aspetti di catalogazione, analisi della pericolosità, monitoraggio e valorizzazione, Roma, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Sala Convegni, 01/12/2017,
Abstract
I fenomeni indotti dalle attività di estrazione mineraria pongono spesso pesanti problemi ambientali e di ...
I fenomeni indotti dalle attività di estrazione mineraria pongono spesso pesanti problemi ambientali e di rischio per la popolazione residente soprattutto nelle aree minerarie dismesse. In particolare, la subsidenza, ovvero il lento abbassamento del suolo, è un fenomeno molto comune nei territori dove si sono sfruttati o si stanno sfruttando giacimenti di salgemma presenti nel sottosuolo. Nell'ambito di uno studio sull'attività franosa nell'abitato di Lungro (Calabria settentrionale) è stata effettuata la raccolta e l'analisi di informazioni storiche riguardanti i dissesti che nel passato hanno interessato l'area su cui insiste lo stabilimento dell'ex Miniera di Sale di Lungro (località San Leonardo). La storia di questa miniera, che ha rappresentato per molto tempo una risorsa economica importante per la comunità locale e per la Calabria, ha origini molto antiche. Sfruttata sin dai tempi dei romani, dopo il mille le vicende della salina furono legate alla storia dei feudatari della zona; la miniera cambiò spesso proprietario, coloro che la prendevano in fitto la sfruttavano a loro vantaggio cercando di ricavarne quanto più possibile durante il periodo. Ciò spiega perché l'estrazione del sale fino ad un certo periodo venne effettato in maniera disordinata e caotica sempre più in profondità e senza nessun piano di estrazione. Nel XIX secolo furono effettuati interventi di risanamento ma nel 1977 cessò definitivamente lo sfruttamento. Di recente sono stati eseguiti importanti lavori di recupero di larga parte delle strutture edilizie dello stabilimento dell'ex Miniera di Sale, con l'obiettivo di adibirle a varie attività socio-culturali, mentre nessuna iniziativa è stata posta in essere per le cavità (piani) dove si sono svolte le attività estrattive, che sono da tempo in totale abbandono. La peculiarità dell'ex Miniera di Sale di Lungro risiede nel fatto che i versanti a monte di tale sito minerario (località San Leonardo) sono interessati da fenomeni franosi attivi, i quali hanno coinvolto, nella loro lenta evoluzione, alcuni edifici e una strada statale (S.S. 105). Da quanto ricavato dalla ricerca storica è plausibile ritenere che molto probabilmente l'area S. Leonardo e la S.S. 105 non risentono in maniera significativa dei problemi di subsidenza conseguenti alla coltivazione della miniera a suo tempo condotta. Le conoscenze acquisite dal 2006, anche con l'ausilio di una rete integrata di monitoraggio, fanno ragionevolmente ritenere che gli spostamenti, e gli effetti conseguenti, registrati nell'area di S. Leonardo sono sostanzialmente determinati dall'evoluzione di fenomeni franosi che interessano i versanti. Le ipotesi formulate e le condizioni prima evidenziate circa lo stato di abbandono delle cavità consigliano, tuttavia, di non sottovalutare il possibile aggravio delle condizioni di dissesto che, nel medio-lungo termine, potrebbe sommarsi a causa di un incremento della subsidenza; tale incremento potrebbe manifestarsi a seguito di crolli diffusi delle cavità determinati sia a seguito del degrado delle cavità stesse sia a seguito di eventi sismici.
Analysis of rainfall trend in southern Italy through the application of the ITA technique
Caloiero T., Coscarelli R., Ferrari E., 2017, Analysis of rainfall trend in southern Italy through the application of the ITA technique,
European Water 59 (2017): 199–206.,
Abstract
In the last decades, climate change has been the focus of considerable international attention due ...
In the last decades, climate change has been the focus of considerable international attention due to the increase of phenomena such as flood, heat waves, forest fires and droughts. In this context, research on the patterns of precipitation trends, both at regional and local scale, has been paramount because these variations can negatively impact on ecosystems, agriculture, water supply and management, human welfare and regional political stability. In this paper, an investigation of the temporal rainfall variability has been carried out using a homogeneous monthly rainfall dataset of 559 rain gauges with more than 50 years of observation. The region under investigation is a large portion of the Italian peninsula, ranging from the Campania and the Apulia regions in the North, to Sicily in the South, and covering an area of about 85,000 km2. Possible trends in monthly and seasonal rainfall values have been investigated by means of a new graphical methodology (Innovative Trend Analysis), which allows the trend identification of the low, medium and high values of a series. As a result, different values and tendencies of the highest and the lowest rainfall values have emerged among the five regions considered in the analysis. Especially at seasonal scale, a negative trend has been detected in winter and in autumn in the whole study area, whereas not well defined trend signals have been identified in summer and spring.
Meteorological tools in support to the railway security system on the Calabria region
Sante Laviola, Salvatore Gabriele, Giulio Iovine, Luca Baldini, Francesco Chiaravalloti, Stefano
Federico, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Lisa Milani, Antonio Procopio, Nicoletta Roberto,
Alessandro Tiesi, Mario Agostino, Raffaele Niccoli, Sergio Stassi, Valeria Rago, 2017, Meteorological tools in support to the railway security system on the Calabria region,
EGU General Assembly 2017, Vienna, 23-28/4/2017,
Abstract
RAMSES (RAilway Meteorological SEcurity System) is a pilot project co-funded by the Italian Railway Company
- ...
RAMSES (RAilway Meteorological SEcurity System) is a pilot project co-funded by the Italian Railway Company
- RFI S.p.A. and conceived for the mitigation of the hydrological risk along the Calabria railways. RAMSES
aims at improving the forecast of very short life-cycle convection systems, responsible of intense and localized
rainfalls affecting small catchment areas, which are often underestimated by the numerical weather models and
even non-adequately detected by the network of sparse raingauges. The RAMSES operational design is based on a
synergistic and integrated architecture, providing a series of information able to identify the most active convective
cells and monitoring their evolution in terms of vertical structure, rain intensity and geo-hydrological effects at
ground (debris flow, landslides, collapses of bridges, erosion of the ballast).
The RAMSES meteorological component is designed to identify and track the short-term evolution (15-60 min)
of convective cells, by means of imaging techniques based on dual-polarization weather radar and Meteosat data.
In support of this quasi-real time analysis, the numerical model WRF provides the weather forecast at 3-6 hours
range by ingesting, through the assimilation system LAPS, the observational data (rain gauges, ground weather
stations, radar, satellites) in order to improve the initial condition.
Finally, the hydraulic flow modeling is used to assess the ground effects in terms of landslide susceptibility, rainfallrunoff
intensity, debris impact on the drainage network and evaluate of risk along the railway track.
Misurazioni di concentrazioni di attività del gas Radon in acqua ad uso pubblico nella Provincia di Cosenza. Un possibile protocollo regionale ad adempimento del D.Lgs. 15 febbraio 2016, n.28.
Durante G., Trozzo R., Capua M., Orbe J., Tene T., Buttafuoco G., Lupiano V., Rago V., IovineG., 2017, Misurazioni di concentrazioni di attività del gas Radon in acqua ad uso pubblico nella Provincia di Cosenza. Un possibile protocollo regionale ad adempimento del D.Lgs. 15 febbraio 2016, n.28.,
Convegno Nazionale AIRP di Radioprotezione - Sorgenti di radiazioni_ dai modelli alle misure, pp. 379–385, Salerno, 8-10/11/2017,
Abstract
Il Decreto Legislativo 28/2016 stabilisce i criteri per la tutela della salute della popolazione da ...
Il Decreto Legislativo 28/2016 stabilisce i criteri per la tutela della salute della popolazione da gas radon e trizio, presenti
nelle acque destinate al consumo umano, in ottemperanza della Direttiva EURATOM 2013/51. La legge definisce quali
sono gli obblighi degli Enti Pubblici competenti a svolgere controlli per scopi di tutela della salute e impone alle Regioni
l'elaborazione e la messa in atto di un programma di controllo che deve essere approvato dal Ministero della Salute. La
realizzazione di tale programma di controllo non può prescindere dall'analisi delle caratteristiche geologiche del territorio
che influenzano, spesso in modo rilevante,la concentrazione di attività del radon.
In questo lavoro sono presentati i primi risultati ottenuta da una collaborazione finalizzata alla messa a punto di tecniche
di misura di concentrazione di gas radon in acqua sorgiva e di una metodologia standard di campionamento, ottenuti
nell'ambito di protocolli d'intesa recentemente stipulati tra ArpaCal e Dipartimento di Fisica dell'Università della Calabria
(UNICAL). In particolare, sono confrontate misure di gas radon su acque prelevate da "pubblici fontanini" effettuate con
due metodiche differenti, vantaggiose in circostanze diverse_ la tecnica spettrometrica non richiede degassaggio ed è
basata sulla spettrometria gamma al Germanio iperpuro di tipo "N" ad alta risoluzione, un secondo metodo utilizza la
tecnica emanometrica e celle a scintillazione. Sono presentati i primi risultati del monitoraggio di un'area ristretta in
provincia di Cosenza, ottenuti seguendo un dedicato protocollo di campionamento e di misura. La scelta delle sorgenti si
basa su criteri geologici e di volume utili per l'elaborazione del programma di controllo delle acque destinate al consumo
umano, come da indicazioni contenute nell'Allegato II della sopracitata legge 28/2016. I criteri geologici derivano dai
risultati di recenti studi, effettuati in Calabria centro-settentrionale (Iovine et al., 2017).
I risultati preliminari, ottenuti in un'area ristretta sono incoraggianti ed il metodo seguito è potenzialmente estensibile
all'intera Regione Calabria.
Rapporti di prova (numero 228 – Novembre 2017)
Gullà G., L. Aceto, L. Borrelli, M. Mercuri, E. Valente, S. Guardia, 2017, Rapporti di prova (numero 228 – Novembre 2017),
2017,
Abstract
Rapporti di prova (numero 228 - Novembre 2017) ...
Rapporti di prova (numero 228 - Novembre 2017)
Rapporti di prova (numero 120 – Aprile 2017)
Gullà G., L. Aceto, E. Valente, S. Guardia, 2017, Rapporti di prova (numero 120 – Aprile 2017),
2017,
Abstract
Rapporti di prova (numero 120 - Aprile 2017) ...
Rapporti di prova (numero 120 - Aprile 2017)
Prima Relazione Ordinaria – Consistenza e condizioni di funzionamento della Rete Integrata di Monitoraggio acquisita dal Comune di Maierato
Gullà G., L. Aceto, 2017, Prima Relazione Ordinaria – Consistenza e condizioni di funzionamento della Rete Integrata di Monitoraggio acquisita dal Comune di Maierato,
2017,
Abstract
Consistenza e condizioni di funzionamento della Rete Integrata di Monitoraggio acquisita dal Comune di Maierato ...
Consistenza e condizioni di funzionamento della Rete Integrata di Monitoraggio acquisita dal Comune di Maierato
Analysis of building vulnerability to slow-moving landslides via DInSAR and damage survey data
Nicodemo G., Peduto D., Ferlisi S., Gullà G., Borrelli L., Fornaro G., Reale D., 2017, Analysis of building vulnerability to slow-moving landslides via DInSAR and damage survey data,
Proceedings of the 4th World Landslide Forum - WLF 2017 - Advancing Culture of Living with Landslides, pp. 899–907, Ljubljana, Slovenia, May 29 - June 02, 2017,
Abstract
The paper presents a procedure for the analysis of building vulnerability to slow-moving landslides via ...
The paper presents a procedure for the analysis of building vulnerability to slow-moving landslides via A-DInSAR and damage survey data. For this purpose, a test site in Calabria region (southern Italy) affected by slow-moving landslides, which over the time caused severe damage to buildings, was selected. The availability of remote sensing data such as those derived from the processing of Synthetic Aperture Radar images via Advanced
Differential Interferometry techniques (A-DInSAR) and information concerning damage severity suffered by the facilities, collected by in situ damage surveys, allowed investigating the cause (differential settlement)--effect (damage) relationship. Then, empirical fragility curves for both reinforced concrete and masonry buildings were generated. These latter, once further validated, can be valuably used for damage analysis and forecasting purposes and framed within procedures for risk analysis and management over urban landslide-affected areas.
Geology and mass movements of the licetto river catchment (Calabrian coastal range, southern Italy)
Borrelli L.; Muto F., 2017, Geology and mass movements of the licetto river catchment (Calabrian coastal range, southern Italy),
Journal of maps 13 (2017): 588–599. doi_10.1080/17445647.2017.1342283,
DOI: 10.1080%2F17445647.2017.1342283
Abstract
The paper presents a detailed mass movement inventory map of the Licetto River basin, an ...
The paper presents a detailed mass movement inventory map of the Licetto River basin, an intermountain catchment of 50 km2 formed during the Quaternary in response to extensional tectonics dissecting fold-and-thrust belts of the Calabrian Coastal Range (Southern Italy). The map (Main Map) is the result of both an integration between geological and morphological data derived from the visual analysis of aerial photographs at different times and scales, and the collection of new data obtained from multi-temporal field surveys. The study area is affected by a total of 824 mass movements, frequently made by superimposed bodies of different types, states of activity and sizes, including some kilometre-scale Deep-Seated Gravitational Slope. The majority of the mapped landslides, mainly of slide type, involve low-grade metamorphic rocks which also show the exclusive presence of deep-seated gravitational slope deformations. Analysis of the inventory map revealed that 40% of the mapped landslides, often attributable to very slow-moving landslides, can be considered active. The Main Map represents a useful tool for territorial planning and engineering - geological and environmental purposes in this complex geo-structural area, providing a useful contribution for quantitative landslide risk analyses and the design of appropriate risk-mitigation measures.
Tectonic constraints on a deep-seated rock slide in weathered crystalline rocks
Borrelli, Luigi; Gullà, Giovanni, 2017, Tectonic constraints on a deep-seated rock slide in weathered crystalline rocks,
Geomorphology (Amst.) 290 (2017): 288–316. doi_10.1016/j.geomorph.2017.04.025,
DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.geomorph.2017.04.025
Abstract
Deep-seated rock slides (DSRSs), recognised as one of the most important mass wasting processes worldwide, ...
Deep-seated rock slides (DSRSs), recognised as one of the most important mass wasting processes worldwide, involve large areas and cause several consequences in terms of environmental and economic damage; they result from a complex of controlling features and processes. DSRSs are common in Calabria (southern Italy) where the complex geo-structural setting plays a key role in controlling the geometry of the failure surface and its development. This paper describes an integrated multi-disciplinary approach to investigate a DSRS in Palaeozoic high-grade metamorphic rocks of the Sila Massif; it focuses on the definition of the internal structure and the predisposing factors of the Serra di Buda landslide near the town of Acri, which is a paradigm for numerous landslides in this area. An integrated interdisciplinary study based on geological, structural, and geomorphological investigations--including field observations of weathering grade of rocks, minero-petrographic characterisations, geotechnical investigations and, in particular, fifteen years of displacement monitoring--is presented. Stereoscopic analysis of aerial photographs and field observations indicate that the Serra di Buda landslide consists of two distinct compounded bodies_ (i) an older and dormant body (~ 7 ha) and (ii) a more recent and active body (~ 13 ha) that overlies the previous one. The active landslide shows movement linked to a deep-seated translational rock slide (block slide); the velocity scale ranges from slow (1.6 m/year during paroxysmal stages) to extremely slow (< 16 mm/year during stable creep stages). The geological structures and rock weathering have played a key role in the landslide's initiation and further development. Steep slope angles, rugged topography, river deepening and erosion at the toe of the slope are also responsible for the formation of this landslide. In particular, the landslide shows a strongly tectonic constraint_ the flanks are bounded by high-angle faults, and the main basal failure surface developed inside an E-W southward-dipping thrust fault zone. The entire active rock mass (total volume of approximately 6 Mm3) slid at one time on a failure surface that dipped < 27°, and the maximum depth, as determined by inclinometer measurements, was approximately 58 m. Petrographic and mineralogical analyses suggest that the rocks in the thrust zones, where the failure surfaces develop, are highly affected by weathering processes that significantly reduce the rock strength and facilitate the extensive failure of the Serra di Buda landslide. Finally, the landslide's internal structure, according to geotechnical investigations and displacement monitoring, is proposed. The proposed approach and the obtained results can be generalised to typify other deep landslides in similar geological settings.
Un modello geologico tridimensionale per una conoscenza quantitativa del territorio. Esempi in Calabria
Tripodi V., Biondino D., Muto F., Borrelli L. Perri F., Spezzano L., Gullà G., Critelli S., 2017, Un modello geologico tridimensionale per una conoscenza quantitativa del territorio. Esempi in Calabria,
Tecniche per la difesa del suolo e dall'inquinamento - 38° Edizione, pp. 489–511, Guardia Piemontese, 21-24 Giugno 2017,
Abstract
La salvaguardia del territorio è un punto cardine per sviluppo sostenibile, e risulta
di fondamentale importanza ...
La salvaguardia del territorio è un punto cardine per sviluppo sostenibile, e risulta
di fondamentale importanza adottare una politica che miri alla riduzione dei rischi naturali,
poiché la loro pericolosità compromette, in maniera più o meno intensa, la vita umana, i beni
e le risorse economiche, l?ambiente.
I rischi geologici, com?è noto, interessano in maniera profonda il territorio calabrese, sia per il
ruolo geodinamico fondamentale della Calabria nell'ambito del Mediterraneo, elemento di raccordo
tra la catena siciliano-magrebide e la catena appenninica, sia per le modifiche naturali che
si mettono in atto in questa area geologicamente giovane.
La storia geologica della Calabria, sin dalla sua strutturazione, ha fatto si che questa terra nel
tempo acquisisse un'estrema fragilità derivante dai suoi caratteri geologici, geomorfologici e
strutturali.
Gli ammassi rocciosi calabresi, costituiti per la maggior parte da rocce di natura cristallina pertanto
maggiormente soggette ai processi alterativi, si mostrano estremamente fratturati e/o degradati
con caratteristiche geotecniche scadenti, a cui si associa una vulnerabilità infrastrutturale
tra le più alte di Italia.
La complessità geologica intrinseca della Calabria congiuntamente all'uso inappropriato del territorio,
per lungo tempo trascurato e violentato, mostra conseguenze disastrose in termini di
esposizione al rischio. I rischi di rilevanza e gravità ingenti che espongono popolazioni e territorio
calabresi fanno riferimento ad una molteplicità di fenomeni naturali_ terremoto e/o tsunami,
frane e smottamenti, alluvioni, erosione costiera, ecc.
Se si guarda al passato, i fenomeni sismici verificatisi in Calabria sono tra i più catastrofici
dell'area mediterranea, ricordiamo il terremoto del 1638 nel settore centro-settentrionale e il terremoto
che nel 1905-1908, con una serie di violente scosse, colpi gran parte della regione.
In termini di rischio idrogeologico la storia dell'ultimo ventennio calabro mostra eventi importanti,
talvolta comprendenti porzioni estese di territorio (Soverato settembre 2000, Serre Vibonesi
2003, Cerzeto 2005, Vibo Valentia luglio 2006, intero territorio regionale autunno inverno
2009-2010, versante ionico reggino novembre 2015). L'intensità dei fenomeni di dissesto idrogeologico,
connessi e acuiti da fenomeni atmosferici estremi legati ai cambiamenti climatici in
atto, rappresentano importanti sorgenti di alterazione ambientale con conseguenze potenzialmente
molto gravi in termini di ambiente, economia e vite umane.
Le varie tipologie di eventi, coprono estensioni territoriali con scale spaziali comprese in intervalli
molto diversificati, mentre la loro natura fenomenologica è intrinsecamente caratterizzata
da notevole complessità ed instabilità temporale, con un comportamento fortemente dinamico
ed un'evoluzione altrettanto variabile.
Al fine di realizzare una corretta pianificazione e governo del territorio è necessario che si conoscano
le caratteristiche intrinseche dell'evento (occorrenza, intensità, frequenza, durata), tali caratteristiche
possono essere conosciute solo attraverso un attento studio ad ampio spettro. In
questa prospettiva si inserisce il presente lavoro che propone, attraverso un caso studio di
un'area del versante occidentale del Massiccio della Sila (San Pietro in Guarano), una metodologia
di indagine che potrebbe fungere da linea guida in contesti geologici aventi le stesse caratteristiche.
Civil protection and Damaging Hydrogeological Events_ comparative analysis of the 2000 and 2015 events in Calabria (southern Italy)
Olga Petrucci, Tommaso Caloiero, Angela Aurora Pasqua, Piero Perrotta, Luigi Russo, Carlo Tansi, 2017, Civil protection and Damaging Hydrogeological Events_ comparative analysis of the 2000 and 2015 events in Calabria (southern Italy),
Advances in geosciences (Print) 44 (2017): 101–113. doi_10.5194/adgeo-44-101-2017,
DOI: 10.5194%2Fadgeo-44-101-2017
Abstract
Calabria (southern Italy) is a flood prone region,
due to both its rough orography and fast ...
Calabria (southern Italy) is a flood prone region,
due to both its rough orography and fast hydrologic response
of most watersheds. During the rainy season, intense rain affects
the region, triggering floods and mass movements that
cause economic damage and fatalities. This work presents a
methodological approach to perform the comparative analysis
of two events affecting the same area at a distance of
15 years, by collecting all the qualitative and quantitative
features useful to describe both rain and damage. The aim is
to understand if similar meteorological events affecting the
same area can have different outcomes in terms of damage.
The first event occurred between 8 and 10 September 2000,
damaged 109 out of 409 municipalities of the region and
killed 13 people in a campsite due to a flood. The second
event, which occurred between 30 October and 1 November
2015, damaged 79 municipalities, and killed a man due
to a flood. The comparative analysis highlights that, despite
the exceptionality of triggering daily rain was higher in the
2015 event, the damage caused by the 2000 event to both infrastructures
and belongings was higher, and it was strongly
increased due to the 13 flood victims. We concluded that, in
the 2015 event, the management of pre-event phases, with the
issuing of meteorological alert, and the emergency management,
with the preventive evacuation of people in hazardous
situations due to landslides or floods, contributed to reduce
the number of victims.
Geomorphic effects caused by heavy rainfall in southern Calabria (Italy) on 30 October-1 November 2015
Valeria Rago (a), Francesco Chiaravalloti (a), Giovanna Chiodo (b), Salvatore Gabriele (a), Valeria Lupiano (a), Rosa Nicastro (b), Annamaria D. Pellegrino (b), Antonio Procopio (a), Salvatore Siviglia (b), Oreste G. Terranova (a) and Giulio G. R. Iovine (a), 2017, Geomorphic effects caused by heavy rainfall in southern Calabria (Italy) on 30 October-1 November 2015,
Journal of maps 13 (2017): 836–843. doi_10.1080/17445647.2017.1390499,
DOI: 10.1080%2F17445647.2017.1390499
Abstract
A severe rainfall event occurred in southern Calabria between 29 October and 2 November 2015, ...
A severe rainfall event occurred in southern Calabria between 29 October and 2 November 2015, causing two deaths and serious damage to transport infrastructure. Widespread slope erosion and thousands of shallow landslides were triggered on the slopes, combined with flooding and transport of debris along the streams. Rains recorded by the regional gauge network and the national radar monitoring system were analysed by means of Kriging techniques. Ground effects were surveyed in the field, and mapped using post-event air photos taken along the coastal sector. Shallow landslides, soil erosion (including sheet, rill, and gully erosion), flooding, lateral erosion, and debris deposition along streambeds, overflow on lateral slopes, and fan deposition at the mouths of the streams were mapped at 1_60,000 scale. Isohyets of the rainfall event - in terms of cumulative maxima over 24 h - are also shown on the Main Map. In Annex A, a list of notices of processes and/or damage, arranged by municipalities, with coordinates, types of ground effect, and synthetic descriptions, is also provided.
Geo-hydrological risk perception_ A case study in Calabria (Southern Italy)
L. Antronico, R. Coscarelli, F. De Pascale, F. Muto, 2017, Geo-hydrological risk perception_ A case study in Calabria (Southern Italy),
International journal of disaster risk reduction 25 (2017): 301–311. doi_10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.09.022,
DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.ijdrr.2017.09.022
Abstract
the impact of extreme events. In fact, the analysis of risk perception can be considered ...
the impact of extreme events. In fact, the analysis of risk perception can be considered as a part of risk reduction
strategies and adaptation measures. In this paper, the perception of the geo-hydrological risk by the population
living or working in a stretch of the Tyrrhenian coast of Calabria (Southern Italy) is analysed. The study area has
recently been affected by debris flow events, with damages to private and public facilities, as well as infrastructures.
In particular, the study, based on a questionnaire survey, considers_ i) general knowledge and personal
experience of geo-hydrological phenomena; ii) awareness of risk exposure; iii) information and preparedness
to geo-hydrological risks of the territory; iv) levels of safety. The results reveal that population
consider the anthropic actions as a relevant cause of geo-hydrological phenomena. Moreover, the citizens of the
study area, although showing a high civic sense, did not positively assess the actions of the local authorities, both
in terms of territory management and people's education and/or information.
Sito RFI_ Pisciotta – km70 – Relazione finale – secondo semestre. Rapporto per RFI n.20 (agosto 2017).
GIULIO IOVINE (1)
con la collaborazione di S. GABRIELE (1), V. BASILE (1), C. BRUNO (1), D. DISTILO (1), T. LE PERA (1), F. LUCÀ (2), V. LUPIANO (1), F. MUTO (1, 3), V. RAGO (1), 2017, Sito RFI_ Pisciotta – km70 – Relazione finale – secondo semestre. Rapporto per RFI n.20 (agosto 2017).,
2017,
Abstract
Si descrivono le attività condotte nel corso del secondo semestre di validità del contratto, con ...
Si descrivono le attività condotte nel corso del secondo semestre di validità del contratto, con analisi dei dati di monitoraggio della frana in località Pisciotta km 70 lungo la tratta Battipaglia-Reggio calabria.
A stochastic approach for the estimation of the occurrence probabilities of severe dry and wet events_ an application in Southern Italy
Sirangelo B., Caloiero T., Coscarelli R., Ferrari E., 2017, A stochastic approach for the estimation of the occurrence probabilities of severe dry and wet events_ an application in Southern Italy,
10th HyMeX International Workshop, Barcellona, 04-07/07/2017,
Abstract
The limited number of very wet or dry events in the historical rainfall series make ...
The limited number of very wet or dry events in the historical rainfall series make it difficult to estimate their occurrence probabilities. For this reason, the scientists have to resort to stochastic models, by assuming a given structure of the underlying hydrological series. In this study, a stochastic procedure for modeling monthly data was applied to rainfall series registered in five regions of southern Italy (Campania, Apulia, Basilicata, Calabria and Sicily regions). The model adopts an autoregressive process for the residual correlative structure of monthly rainfall data, previously normalized and deseasonalised. Through a Monte Carlo technique, based on the proposed model, synthetic data were generated for each rain gauge. Then, extreme dry and wet periods and their occurrence frequencies were estimated at various time scales by applying the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to the synthetic data. The results clearly show greater probabilities of dry conditions than wet conditions. These outcomes are more evident when long time scales are considered.
A stochastic model for the analysis of the occurrence probabilities of wet and dry periods in southern Italy
Caloiero T., Coscarelli R., Ferrari E., Sirangelo B., 2017, A stochastic model for the analysis of the occurrence probabilities of wet and dry periods in southern Italy,
IAHS 2017 Scientific ASSEMBLY "Water and Development_ scientific challenges in addressing societal issues", Port Elizabeth, 10-14/07/2017,
Abstract
Rainfall anomalies, as very wet or dry periods, can quantitatively assessed through indices, which can ...
Rainfall anomalies, as very wet or dry periods, can quantitatively assessed through indices, which can characterize the severity of the events in terms of intensity, duration, frequency, recurrence probability and spatial extent. With reference to both dry and wet periods, very often the limited number of events in the historical series prevents scientists from the investigation of their probabilistic structure. Moreover, missing values may significantly influence duration and variability of these events. To overcome these difficulties, various stochastic models have been developed, by assuming a given structure of the underlying hydrological series, thus generating the intrinsic variability of the rainfall process, and analytically deriving the probabilistic behavior of dry and wet periods. In this work, a procedure for the stochastic modeling of monthly rainfall is applied to a high quality data base of monthly rainfall values observed in rain gauges of a large portion of southern Italy. The model adopts variable transformations, which are finalized to the deseasonalisation and the gaussianisation of the monthly rainfall process. The residual correlative structure of the normalized, deseasonalised monthly rainfall variate has been modeled by means of an autoregressive process, including a final procedure to test the autocorrelation of the series. After the estimation procedure of the model parameters, a Monte Carlo technique is applied for generating synthetic worlds to simulate the monthly rainfall of each rain gauge. Then, dry and wet periods were analyzed through the application of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The results showed that the proposed model provided a good representation of the monthly rainfall for the considered rain gauges. In particular, the results provided by the SPI application at different time scales indicate greater probability of dry conditions than wet conditions, especially when long-term precipitation patterns are considered.
Learning from floods to mitigate flood risk
Kreibich H., Di Baldassarre G., Vorogushyn S., Aerts J.C.J.H., Apel H., Aronica G.T., Arnbjerg-Nielsen K., Bouwer L.M., Bubeck Ph., Caloiero T., Chinh D.T., Cortés M., Gain A.K., Giampá V., Kuhlicke Ch., Kundzewicz Z.W., Llasat M.C., Mård J., Matczak P., Mazzoleni M., Molinari D., Dung N.V., Petrucci O., Schröter K., Slager K., Thieken A.H., Ward P.J., Merz B.,, 2017, Learning from floods to mitigate flood risk,
7th International Conference on Flood Management (ICFM7), pp. 72–73, Leeds, 05-07/09/2017,
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES
Flood risk is expected to increase in large parts of the world due ...
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES
Flood risk is expected to increase in large parts of the world due to climate change and globally increasing exposure. Efficient integrated flood risk management needs to be implemented to counteract this trend. Societies can learn from floods, and consequently improve their risk management. Objective of this study is to increase our knowledge on how societies learn from floods and what measures they implement to reduce their flood risk.
METHOD
Societal learning can occur through 'focusing events', i.e. events that provide a sudden, strong push for action (Kreibich et al. 2011). Thus, we undertook a semi-quantitative assessment of eight paired flood events around the world, i.e. consecutive floods that occurred in the same catchments, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. We present these eight success stories of risk reduction and unravel what risk management concepts were implemented after the first flood and how these changed the flood risk and thus the resulting damage of the second flood.
RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS
Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability. The role of changes in exposure is less apparent; positive and negative changes are reported. In some cases, significant investments in flood protection between the floods have played a large role in exposure and damage reduction. Reduction of vulnerability seems to be a key for better risk reduction via integrated flood risk management. Thus, efforts need to be redoubled to improve our understanding of vulnerability.
Adaptation to flood risk – results of international paired flood event studies
Kreibich H., Di Baldassarre G., Vorogushyn S., Aerts J.C.J.H., Apel1 H., Aronica G.T., Arnbjerg-Nielsen K., Bouwer L.M., Bubeck Ph., Caloiero T., Chinh D.T., Cortés M., Gain A.K., Giampá V., Kuhlicke Ch., Kundzewicz Z.W., Llasat M.C., Mård J., Matczak P., Mazzoleni M., Molinari D., Dung N.V., Petrucci O., Schröter K., Slager K., Thieken A.H., Ward P.J., Merz B., 2017, Adaptation to flood risk – results of international paired flood event studies,
Earth's future 5 (2017): 953–965. doi_10.1002/2017EF000606,
Abstract
As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers ...
As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers of changes in risk is essential for effective adaptation. To gain more knowledge on the basis of empirical case studies, we analyze eight paired floods, i.e. consecutive flood events that occurred in the same region, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. These success stories of risk reduction were selected across different socio-economic and hydroclimatic contexts. The potential of societies to adapt is uncovered by describing triggered societal changes, as well as formal measures and spontaneous processes that reduced flood risk. This novel approach has the potential to build the basis for an international data collection and analysis effort to better understand and attribute changes in risk due to hydrological extremes in the framework of the IAHSs Panta Rhei initiative. Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability, e.g. via raised risk awareness, preparedness and improvements of organizational emergency management. Thus, vulnerability reduction plays an essential role for successful adaptation. Our work shows that there is a high potential to adapt, but there remains the challenge to stimulate measures that reduce vulnerability and risk in periods in which extreme events do not occur.
Trend analysis of monthly mean values and extreme indices of daily temperature in a region of southern Italy
Caloiero T.; Coscarelli R.; Ferrari E.; Sirangelo B., 2017, Trend analysis of monthly mean values and extreme indices of daily temperature in a region of southern Italy,
International journal of climatology 37 (2017): 284–297. doi_10.1002/joc.5003,
DOI: 10.1002%2Fjoc.5003
Abstract
The analyses of temperature extremes can be very useful because they are highly representative of ...
The analyses of temperature extremes can be very useful because they are highly representative of the climatic tendency of an area. In this study, 19 temperature series registered in southern Italy have been analysed for detecting trends through the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. The tendencies have been detected since 1951 for the maximum and minimum monthly temperatures and for several indices of daily extremes. As a result, the minimum and maximum monthly temperatures mainly denote a positive trend for spring and summer months and a marked negative one in September. Moreover, the trend analysis on the extreme temperature indices shows opposite behaviours_ a clear positive tendency in the frequency and intensity of the highest values and some negative trends for the lowest ones.
Impacts of past and future land changes on landslides in southern Italy
Stefano Luigi Gariano (1,2), Olga Petrucci (3), Guido Rianna (4), Monia Santini (5,6), Fausto Guzzetti (1), 2017, Impacts of past and future land changes on landslides in southern Italy,
Regional environmental change (Internet) 18 (2017): 437–449. doi_10.1007/s10113-017-1210-9,
DOI: 10.1007%2Fs10113-017-1210-9
Abstract
Land use and land cover (LULC), as well as their geographical and temporal variations, affect ...
Land use and land cover (LULC), as well as their geographical and temporal variations, affect landslide occurrence and the related risk, in ways that are difficult to determine. Here, we propose a method for the regional analysis of variations in landslide frequency and distribution in response to observed and projected LULC changes. The method is quantitative and reproducible. We test it in Calabria, southern Italy, where a catalogue of 7037 landslides occurred between 1921 and 2010 is available. First, we defined empirical relationships linking the observed LULC variations to landslide occurrence. We found that, in the period 1921-1965, the majority of the landslides occurred in forests and grassland areas, while, in the period 1966-2010, the landslide density became higher in grassland areas, lower in arable lands and remained about constant in the forests. We consider this an evidence of the positive effect of agricultural practices and land management in reducing landslide occurrence. We noticed that both the landslide occurrence and the distribution of the vulnerable elements changed in the observation period. Then, we calculated the projected variations (to 2050) in landslide occurrence related to 32 scenarios of LULC changes. Our projections reveal a modest increase in landslide occurrence in all scenarios, in the range from 0.9 to 3.2%, with an average increase of 2%. Considering all scenarios, we expect an increase in the number of landslides due to LULC variations in 291 municipalities in Calabria (71%), with 4 municipalities where the increase is expected to exceed 50%. We maintain that the observed and the projected variations in the occurrence of landslides in Calabria are related to changes in natural (i.e. the number and distribution of the triggering events) and environmental and societal (i.e. the number and the distribution of the exposed elements) components.
PEOPLE
Petrucci Olga, Aceto Luigi, Pasqua Aurora, 2017, PEOPLE,
2017,
Abstract
PEOPLE contains data about both catastrophic and low-severity events that caused human consequences in Calabria ...
PEOPLE contains data about both catastrophic and low-severity events that caused human consequences in Calabria (Italy) in a 15-year period. Data have been gathered from 5,475 daily editions of two regional newspapers (La Gazzetta del Sud and Il Quotidiano della Calabria), published between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2014
IDENTIFICAZIONE E CARATTERIZZAZIONE DEI PRINCIPALI EVENTI DI SICCITÀ IN CALABRIA
R. Coscarelli, T. Caloiero, E. Ferrari, B. Sirangelo, 2017, IDENTIFICAZIONE E CARATTERIZZAZIONE DEI PRINCIPALI EVENTI DI SICCITÀ IN CALABRIA,
Tecniche per la Difesa del Suolo e dall'Inquinamento, edited by Frega, Giuseppe e Macchione, Francesco, pp. 135–144. Cosenza_ Edibios, 2017,
Abstract
I fenomeni siccitosi possono annoverarsi tra gli eventi climatici più dannosi da
diversi punti di vista ...
I fenomeni siccitosi possono annoverarsi tra gli eventi climatici più dannosi da
diversi punti di vista (sociale, economico, sanitario). Nella presente memoria, tramite l'applicazione
dell'SPI ad una banca dati, completa e aggiornata, di piogge mensili registrate in Calabria
da gennaio 1951 a dicembre 2016, vengono individuati e caratterizzati i maggiori eventi di siccità
meteorologica. Vengono presi in considerazione sia gli eventi a piccola scala temporale (SPI-3)
sia quelli a scala più elevata (SPI-12), evidenziandone le differenze non solo come durata temporale,
ma anche da un punto di vista di estensione spaziale
Antropocene e Geoetica_ il caso-studio sulla percezione del rischio idrogeologico in Calabria (Italia)
Francesco De Pascale¹, Loredana Antronico², Roberto Coscarelli², Marcello Bernardo¹, Francesco Muto³, 2017, Antropocene e Geoetica_ il caso-studio sulla percezione del rischio idrogeologico in Calabria (Italia),
XXXII CONGRESSO GEOGRAFICO ITALIANO - L'apporto della geografia tra rivoluzioni e riforme, pp. 134–135, Roma, 7-10/06/2017,
Abstract
La geoetica, insieme alla geografia, studia i problemi legati alla gestione dei rischi naturali, all'educazione ...
La geoetica, insieme alla geografia, studia i problemi legati alla gestione dei rischi naturali, all'educazione e alla comunicazione
del rischio, al fine di migliorare la resilienza delle comunità di fronte agli eventi estremi. Comprendere
la percezione della popolazione è fondamentale per il successo di un'eventuale attuazione dei piani di comunicazione
del rischio, come parte delle strategie di riduzione dello stesso. Lo scopo di questo lavoro è analizzare, appunto, i
meccanismi di percezione e propensione al rischio idrogeologico in un tratto di costa del Tirreno meridionale (Costa
degli Dei), situato in provincia di Vibo Valentia (Calabria, Italia). Un questionario strutturato misto è stato somministrato
a 300 cittadini dei Comuni di Tropea, Parghelia e Zambrone, utilizzando la modalità di campionamento non
probabilistico, a scelta ragionata. Infatti, sul detto tratto costiero sono presenti numerose conoidi alluvionali che,
negli ultimi cinquant'anni, sono state oggetto di un significativo sviluppo urbano (costruzione di edifici pubblici e
privati, strutture alberghiere ed infrastrutture). Negli anni 2009, 2010 e 2011, tali conoidi alluvionali, densamente popolate,
hanno subito gli effetti di numerose colate di detrito e di alluvionamenti, causati da eventi piovosi, anche non
particolarmente eccezionali. In conseguenza di ciò, oltre a molteplici danni alle strutture ed infrastrutture presenti
nell'area, si sono verificate condizioni di alto rischio per la popolazione. L'obiettivo del contributo, pertanto, è quello
di analizzare_ la conoscenza della popolazione residente, o che lavora nell'area di studio, dei fenomeni idrogeologici
(frane e alluvioni); la capacità della popolazione di affrontare e gestire situazioni di emergenza legate a detti fenomeni; il rapporto di fiducia della popolazione nei confronti degli amministratori. I primi dati emersi dall'indagine sono
piuttosto allarmanti_ la comunicazione tra istituzioni e cittadini viene percepita dai cittadini stessi come inesistente.
Inoltre, il 74% degli intervistati ritiene che le frane e le alluvioni siano "causate dall'uomo", indicando "abusivismo edilizio",
"gestione del territorio", "disinteresse da parte degli amministratori pubblici locali" tra i fattori che influiscono
maggiormente sul verificarsi di frane ed alluvioni. Dalla ricerca effettuata risulta, dunque, preoccupante il deficit di
comunicazione tra istituzioni e cittadini; esso potrebbe essere colmato solo tramite eventuali campagne informative
e la diffusione dei Piani di emergenza. Inoltre, è in aumento la percentuale di cittadini che considera i fattori umani
decisivi nello scatenarsi di una catastrofe legata ad eventuali frane ed alluvioni. Ciò avvalora ancora di più la percezione
di Crutzen e Stoermer, ripresa da altri studiosi, secondo cui ci troviamo nell'era geologica dell'Antropocene.
Secondo Bonneuil e Fressoz, ciò che sta accadendo al nostro pianeta non è altro che "una rivoluzione geologica di
origine umana".
Public knowledge and perception of geo-hydrological risk in Calabria (southern Italy): preliminary results
Loredana Antronico (1), Roberto Coscarelli (1), and Francesco De Pascale (2), 2017, Public knowledge and perception of geo-hydrological risk in Calabria (southern Italy): preliminary results,
PICO presentation in session IE4.1/NH9.3/EOS16 - Natural Hazards Education, Communications and Science-Policy-Practice Interface, Vienna, 23-28/04/2017,
Abstract
The analysis of risk perception is a fundamental tool to strengthen public awareness and knowledge ...
The analysis of risk perception is a fundamental tool to strengthen public awareness and knowledge that are directly
linked to the way people perceive disaster risk. By means of a quantitative research method (structured interviews),
a survey to acquire information on knowledge, communication and perception of natural hazard by the population
was led with main reference to landslides and floods. With these aims, a questionnaire including about 50 queries
was elaborated with the following main objectives_ i) the state of knowledge about landslides and flood phenomena
of the people living or working in the survey area; ii) the ability of the population in responding to emergency
situations related to such phenomena and the background coming from past events; iii) the trust of the population
towards administrators. Moreover, the communication between citizens and Local Authorities when a catastrophic
event occurs was evaluated. The survey was carried out on an area of Tyrrhenian seacoast of Calabria (southern
Italy) where a set of mountain front alluvial fans develops along the narrow coastal plain. In the study area, a series
of rainfall events in the years 2009, 2010, and 2011 have induced several debris flows, hyperconcentrated flows
and inundations that threatened the population and mainly caused damage to private buildings and infrastructures
located on the alluvial fans. Three municipalities were selected in the study area, where the proposed questionnaire
was submitted face-to-face to 300 residents using a judgment sampling procedure. The preliminary results of the
survey are alarming_ citizens don't have a good communication with local institutions. In addition, the majority of
respondents think that landslides and floods are caused by "man-made actions". They indicated "illegal building",
"poor land-management practices" and "lack of interest of local administrators" as the main factors that have
the most influence in the occurrence of landslides and inundations. Also some respondents indicated "the lack of
adequate defence measures for geo-hydrological phenomena". These first results evidenced that the difficulty in the
communications with the local administrations and the low trust in their technicians are the main problems for the
citizens in the study area. Therefore, it would be useful an effort by Local Authorities to implement a greater and
more effective communication with the population. In this way, a better knowledge of the risk by the population
as well as a greater empowerment of the individuals can be reached, enhancing also the trust between institutions
and citizens.
Un’evidente esigenza di pianificazione dal basso_ il caso-studio sulla percezione del rischio idrogeologico in Calabria (Italia)
Francesco De Pascale¹, Loredana Antronico², Roberto Coscarelli², Francesco Muto³, 2017, Un’evidente esigenza di pianificazione dal basso_ il caso-studio sulla percezione del rischio idrogeologico in Calabria (Italia),
X SEMINARIO ITALO-FRANCESE DI GEOGRAFIA SOCIALE - RIPARTIRE DAL TERRITORIO. I limiti e le potenzialità di una pianificazione dal basso, Monastero degli Olivetani - Lecce, 30-31/03/2017,
Abstract
Col presente contributo si intendono analizzare i meccanismi di costruzione e rappresentazione del territorio, che ...
Col presente contributo si intendono analizzare i meccanismi di costruzione e rappresentazione del territorio, che si sono generati e riprodotti in presenza di un'azione umana associata all'esistenza di un rischio idrogeologico, nel contesto di un tratto di costa del Tirreno meridionale (Costa degli Dei), situato in provincia di Vibo Valentia (Calabria, Italia). In particolare, la ricerca ha interessato tre Comuni, Tropea, Parghelia e Zambrone, all'interno dei quali sono stati intervistati complessivamente 300 cittadini, attraverso un questionario strutturato, utilizzando la modalità di campionamento non probabilistico, a scelta ragionata.
Difatti, sul detto tratto costiero sono presenti numerose conoidi alluvionali che, negli ultimi cinquant'anni, sono state oggetto di un consistente sviluppo urbano (costruzione di edifici pubblici e privati, strutture alberghiere ed infrastrutture). Negli anni 2009, 2010 e 2011, tali conoidi alluvionali, densamente popolate, hanno subito gli effetti di numerose colate di detrito e di alluvionamenti, causati da eventi piovosi, anche non particolarmente eccezionali. In conseguenza di ciò, oltre a molteplici danni alle strutture ed infrastrutture presenti nell'area, si sono verificate condizioni di alto rischio per la popolazione.
L'obiettivo del lavoro, pertanto, è quello di analizzare_ la conoscenza della popolazione residente, o che lavora nell'area di studio, dei fenomeni idrogeologici (frane e alluvioni); la capacità della popolazione di affrontare e gestire situazioni di emergenza legate a detti fenomeni; il rapporto di fiducia della popolazione nei confronti degli amministratori.
Dunque, viene valutato anche il ruolo degli enti pubblici deputati alla pianificazione della risposta sociale e, di conseguenza, come e quanto sia percepibile sul territorio la loro azione rivolta alla trasformazione delle forme geografiche locali.
I primi dati emersi dall'indagine risultano alquanto allarmanti_ la comunicazione tra istituzioni e cittadini viene percepita dai cittadini stessi come inesistente. Inoltre, la maggior parte degli intervistati ritiene che le frane e le alluvioni siano "causate dall'uomo", indicando "abusivismo edilizio", "gestione del territorio", "disinteresse da parte degli amministratori pubblici locali" tra i fattori che influiscono maggiormente sul verificarsi di frane ed alluvioni. Gli intervistati lamentano, altresì, "la mancanza di adeguati interventi di protezione dai fenomeni".
Dall'analisi dei risultati principali, perciò, si evince un modello di governance caratterizzato da uno "stato di emergenza democratica e partecipativa", che rende l'idea di come amministrare le città e i borghi, oggi, non significhi più governarli dall'alto, ma, piuttosto, mettersi in comunicazione con le comunità locali tramite azioni dal basso. Tale prospettiva stimolerebbe la nascita di forme di soggettualità territoriale finalizzate a pianificare l'area a rischio nel modo più sostenibile e resiliente per i suoi abitanti.
The Role of Rainfall and Land Use
Gariano S.L., Petrucci O., Guzzetti F., 2017, The Role of Rainfall and Land Use,
4th World Landslide Forum, pp. 339–345, Lubiana, 2017,
Abstract
Urbanization in hazardous regions, the abandonment of rural and mountain areas, and changed agricultural and ...
Urbanization in hazardous regions, the abandonment of rural and mountain areas, and changed agricultural and forest practices have increased the impact of landslides through the years. Hence, the changing climate variables, like rainfall, acted and will act on a human-modified landscape. In this work, we analyze the role of rainfall variation and land use/cover change in the occurrence of landslides in Calabria in the period 1921-2010. Combining rainfall and landslide information, we reconstruct and analyze a catalogue of 1466 rainfall events with landslides (i.e., the occurrence of one or more landslide during or immediately after a rainfall event). To investigate the impact of land use/cover changes in the occurrence of landslides, we consider the "Land Use Map" made by the Italian National Research Council and the Italian Touring Club in 1956, and the "CORINE Land Cover" map released in 2000. Since our landslide catalogue is at municipality scale (i.e., for each landslide we known the municipality in which it occurred), we attribute a prevailing land use/cover class to each of the 409 municipalities of Calabria. We split the catalogue in two subsets (1921-1965 and 1966-2010) and correlate the landslides occurred in the first period to the 1956 land use and the landslides occurred in the second period to the 2000 land cover. We find that_ (i) the geographical and the temporal distributions of rainfall-induced landslides have changed in the observation period; (ii) land use/cover in Calabria has changed between the two periods, with a huge decrease of arable land and an increase of heterogeneous agricultural areas and forests; (iii) in both periods, most of the landslides occurred in areas characterized by forests and arable land; (iv) in the second period, there was an increase (decrease) of landslides occurred in agricultural areas (arable land).
Coping with floods in the Northern part of the Mediterranean_ the application of an international database on flood events for a 35 years period
M.C. Llasat (1), M. Llasat-Botija (1), M. Cortés (1), V. Kotroni (2), K. Papagiannaki (2), O. Petrucci (3), A.A. Pasqua (3), J. Rosselló (4), F. Vinet (5), 2017, Coping with floods in the Northern part of the Mediterranean_ the application of an international database on flood events for a 35 years period,
10th HyMeX workshop, Barcelona, Spain, 4-7/07/2017,
Abstract
The contribution departs from the updating of the FLOODHYMEX database (Llasat et al, 2013) that ...
The contribution departs from the updating of the FLOODHYMEX database (Llasat et al, 2013) that at present includes all the catastrophic flood events produced on the period 1981-2015 in Catalonia, Valencia and Balearic Islands (Spain), PACA, Languedoc-Roussillon and Midi Pyrenees (France), Calabria (Italy) and Greece. After the proposal of a common definition of catastrophic event (including
the event duration, starting and ending) and the analysis of the main climatic features and statistics this updated data base has been compared with Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), the Natural Hazards Assessment Network (NATHAN) of the reinsurance firm Munich Re and Civil Protection flood databases. Trends have been compared with those obtained for other periods in order to understand the potential influence of non-climatic factors. The precipitation thresholds associated to floods (mainly flash floods) have been analysed from daily precipitation data that has been provided by AEMET (Agencia Estatal de Meteorología, Spain), NOA (National Observatory of Athens, Greece) and Météo France, and has been complemented by EOBS (25x25 km2). The study has been complemented with the data base on casualties, for the same period, which records detailed information about the time of occurrence and place where fatalities occurred, circumstances in which fatalities occurred, age, gender and specific vulnerability circumstances.
In order to analyse specific events with a detailed information (including economic one), a minimum of two cases of study have been selected for each country. Selected cases have been identified as "remarkable cases" using the definition proposed by Boudou (2015). As example the flood event of June 2013 that affected Catalonia and Midi-Pyrenees, and the flood event that affected Greece on October 2015. These cases have been useful to illustrate the early warning systems, recovery measures and post-event analysis in each region.
This contribution follows the European Directive on Floods (DIRECTIVE 2007/60/CE, European Parliament, 2007) which looks at flood risk management plans focusing on prevention, protection and preparation. The contribution has been developed by the FloodHymeX Task Force of HYMEX and has been supported by the Spanish project HOPE.
Analysis of extreme hydrological phenomena in southern Italy (Calabria region)
Tommaso Caloiero, Luigi Aceto, Angela Aurora Pasqua, Olga Petrucci, 2017, Analysis of extreme hydrological phenomena in southern Italy (Calabria region),
EGU General Assembly 2017, VIENNA, 23/28 APRILE 2017,
Abstract
Calabria (southern Italy) is a region exposed to the effects of contrasting climatic and hydrological ...
Calabria (southern Italy) is a region exposed to the effects of contrasting climatic and hydrological phenomena.
In fact, due to its oblong shape, to its position in the middle of the Mediterranean Basin, and for its mountainous
nature, Calabria shows a high spatial variability of the climatic features and of related phenomena such as floods
and drought.
The present paper is based on the historical database ASICal (Historically flooded areas in Calabria), a catalogue
of effects of floods and rain-related landslides that occurred in the region since the XIX Century. The catalogue has
been built using the typical historical data sources as chronicles, diaries, historical books, local and regional agencies,
press archives, scientific papers, and documents of civil protection offices. From these sources, we selected
information on damage caused by rain related phenomena at a municipal scale and chronologically sorted by year,
month and day. The analysis of the entire catalogue allows highlighting the regional Damaging Hydrogeological
Events (DHE), defined as periods of intense rain causing damage on regional sectors conventionally selected as
larger than 30% of the entire regional territory. For each event, as a measure of the magnitude of rainfall, the return
period of the daily rainfall recorded during the event has been evaluated.
In addition, we recently carried out a similar historical research to identify the main drought events affecting the
region. In this case, due to the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought, data are collected both at municipal
and regional scale, and the temporal scale is generally monthly or annual. For each event, we used as climatic
descriptors a drought index for monitoring drought phenomena. Among drought indices, we used the Standardized
Precipitation Index (SPI) which can be considered the most robust and effective, since it can be calculated for
different time-scales and can be used to analyse different drought categories. Moreover, the SPI is easier to
calculate than complex indices, as it is based on precipitation alone, and allows comparing drought conditions
among different periods and regions.
Both the series have been analysed jointly, in order to obtain the general trend of extreme rain and drought,
characterised by mean of descriptive climatic features and damage caused. The results supply a glance in the past
climatic history of the region that can be used to project to future and be prepared for ongoing changes related to
climate changes. In fact, the identification of the most floods and drought prone areas can be useful for both civil
protection mitigation strategies and water resources management (water used for home, industrial, and agricultural
purposes).
People-flood interaction_ victims throughout four Mediterranean countries (France, Italy, Spain, and Greece) in 34 years
Olga Petrucci (1), Luigi Aceto(1), Laurent Boissier (2), Vassiliki Kotroni (3), Maria Carmen Llasat (4), Montserrat Llasat-Botija (4), Joan Rosselló (5), Katerina Papagiannaki (3), A. Aurora Pasqua (1), and Freddy Vinet (2), 2017, People-flood interaction_ victims throughout four Mediterranean countries (France, Italy, Spain, and Greece) in 34 years,
Geophysical research abstracts (Online) 19 (2017).,
Abstract
Floods and flash floods are widespread phenomena in Mediterranean countries, where they cause severe damage
and ...
Floods and flash floods are widespread phenomena in Mediterranean countries, where they cause severe damage
and pose a threat to the people. The aim of this work is to highlight similarities and differences, if any, among
circumstances and people behavior in four Mediterranean countries frequently affected by fatal floods_ France,
Italy, Spain, and Greece. In order to do this, we collected and organized detailed information on victims caused by
floods throughout the period 1981-2015. The database is made of different sections allowing_
a) Event identification, in terms of time of occurrence and place where fatalities occurred,
b) People identification, in terms of gender, age, and often even the name and surname of victims,
c) People-event interaction, characterizing the circumstances in which fatalities occurred, including dangerous behaviors,
d) External features that could have had some influence on the occurrence of fatalities, as the presence/absence of
alert systems and prevention measures.
We used the collected information to investigate the event dynamics that led to the loss of lives and we identified
the most dangerous event circumstances.
The aim is to understand how and why people are involved in these events, and the most dangerous conditions,
places, activities and dynamics of people-event interaction. The results can improve the understanding of the impacts
that floods pose to people and can increase risk awareness among administrators and citizens. The outcomes
can also be used to understand and highlight similarities and differences, if existing, in the behaviors of people in
the four analyzed countries, in order to strength the strategies aiming to save people and warn about risky behaviors.
We think our study can improve the understanding on the impacts that geo-hydrological hazards pose to the population
of analyzed places, and on their consequences, and we believe it could be an important step for increasing
knowing and awareness among administrators and citizens.
People-flood interaction_ victims throughout four Mediterranean countries (France, Italy, Spain, and Greece) in 34 years
Olga Petrucci (1), Luigi Aceto(1), Laurent Boissier (2), Vassiliki Kotroni (3), Maria Carmen Llasat (4), Montserrat Llasat-Botija (4), Joan Rosselló (5), Katerina Papagiannaki (3), A. Aurora Pasqua (1), and Freddy Vinet (2), 2017, People-flood interaction_ victims throughout four Mediterranean countries (France, Italy, Spain, and Greece) in 34 years,
EGU General Assembly 2017, Vienna, 23/28 aprile 2017,
Abstract
Floods and flash floods are widespread phenomena in Mediterranean countries, where they cause severe damage
and ...
Floods and flash floods are widespread phenomena in Mediterranean countries, where they cause severe damage
and pose a threat to the people. The aim of this work is to highlight similarities and differences, if any, among
circumstances and people behavior in four Mediterranean countries frequently affected by fatal floods_ France,
Italy, Spain, and Greece. In order to do this, we collected and organized detailed information on victims caused by
floods throughout the period 1981-2015. The database is made of different sections allowing_
a) Event identification, in terms of time of occurrence and place where fatalities occurred,
b) People identification, in terms of gender, age, and often even the name and surname of victims,
c) People-event interaction, characterizing the circumstances in which fatalities occurred, including dangerous behaviors,
d) External features that could have had some influence on the occurrence of fatalities, as the presence/absence of
alert systems and prevention measures.
We used the collected information to investigate the event dynamics that led to the loss of lives and we identified
the most dangerous event circumstances.
The aim is to understand how and why people are involved in these events, and the most dangerous conditions,
places, activities and dynamics of people-event interaction. The results can improve the understanding of the impacts
that floods pose to people and can increase risk awareness among administrators and citizens. The outcomes
can also be used to understand and highlight similarities and differences, if existing, in the behaviors of people in
the four analyzed countries, in order to strength the strategies aiming to save people and warn about risky behaviors.
We think our study can improve the understanding on the impacts that geo-hydrological hazards pose to the population
of analyzed places, and on their consequences, and we believe it could be an important step for increasing
knowing and awareness among administrators and citizens.
Flood risk change in some European, African and Asian catchments
Kreibich H., Di Baldassarre G., Vorogushyn S., Aerts J.C.J.H., Apel1 H., Aronica G.T., Arnbjerg-Nielsen K., Bouwer L.M., Bubeck Ph., Caloiero T., Chinh D.T., Cortés M., Gain A.K., Giampá V., Kuhlicke Ch., Kundzewicz Z.W., Llasat M.C., Mård J., Matczak P., Mazzoleni M., Molinari D., Dung N.V., Petrucci O., Schröter K., Slager K., Thieken A.H., Ward P.J., Merz B., 2017, Flood risk change in some European, African and Asian catchments,
Geophysical research abstracts (Online) 19 (2017).,
Abstract
In light of the expected increase of flood risk in large parts of the world ...
In light of the expected increase of flood risk in large parts of the world due to climate change and globally increasing exposure, efficient integrated flood risk management needs to be implemented. Societies learn from floods, and consequently improve their risk management. Such learning can occur through 'focusing events', i.e. events that provide a sudden, strong push for action. For example, the 1953 North Sea flood triggered the Delta Works in The Netherlands and the construction of the Thames Barrier. We show how societies have learnt from focusing events in river systems, by a semi-quantitative assessment of eight paired flood events around the world, i.e. consecutive floods that occurred in the same catchments, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. We unravel the main mechanisms underlying these eight success stories of risk reduction. Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability. The role of changes in exposure is less apparent; positive and negative changes are reported. In some cases, significant investments in flood protection between the floods have played a large role in exposure and damage reduction. Reduction of vulnerability seems to be a key for better risk reduction via integrated flood risk management. Thus, we need to redouble efforts to improve our understanding of vulnerability.
Analysis of extreme hydrological phenomena in southern Italy (Calabria region)
Tommaso Caloiero, Luigi Aceto, Angela Aurora Pasqua, Olga Petrucci, 2017, Analysis of extreme hydrological phenomena in southern Italy (Calabria region),
Geophysical research abstracts (Online) 19 (2017).,
Abstract
Calabria (southern Italy) is a region exposed to the effects of contrasting climatic and hydrological ...
Calabria (southern Italy) is a region exposed to the effects of contrasting climatic and hydrological phenomena.
In fact, due to its oblong shape, to its position in the middle of the Mediterranean Basin, and for its mountainous
nature, Calabria shows a high spatial variability of the climatic features and of related phenomena such as floods
and drought.
The present paper is based on the historical database ASICal (Historically flooded areas in Calabria), a catalogue
of effects of floods and rain-related landslides that occurred in the region since the XIX Century. The catalogue has
been built using the typical historical data sources as chronicles, diaries, historical books, local and regional agencies,
press archives, scientific papers, and documents of civil protection offices. From these sources, we selected
information on damage caused by rain related phenomena at a municipal scale and chronologically sorted by year,
month and day. The analysis of the entire catalogue allows highlighting the regional Damaging Hydrogeological
Events (DHE), defined as periods of intense rain causing damage on regional sectors conventionally selected as
larger than 30% of the entire regional territory. For each event, as a measure of the magnitude of rainfall, the return
period of the daily rainfall recorded during the event has been evaluated.
In addition, we recently carried out a similar historical research to identify the main drought events affecting the
region. In this case, due to the spatial and temporal characteristics of drought, data are collected both at municipal
and regional scale, and the temporal scale is generally monthly or annual. For each event, we used as climatic
descriptors a drought index for monitoring drought phenomena. Among drought indices, we used the Standardized
Precipitation Index (SPI) which can be considered the most robust and effective, since it can be calculated for
different time-scales and can be used to analyse different drought categories. Moreover, the SPI is easier to
calculate than complex indices, as it is based on precipitation alone, and allows comparing drought conditions
among different periods and regions.
Both the series have been analysed jointly, in order to obtain the general trend of extreme rain and drought,
characterised by mean of descriptive climatic features and damage caused. The results supply a glance in the past
climatic history of the region that can be used to project to future and be prepared for ongoing changes related to
climate changes. In fact, the identification of the most floods and drought prone areas can be useful for both civil
protection mitigation strategies and water resources management (water used for home, industrial, and agricultural
purposes).
Assessing future changes in the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides at a regional scale
Stefano Luigi Gariano (a,b), Guido Rianna (c), Olga Petrucci (d), Fausto Guzzetti (a), 2017, Assessing future changes in the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides at a regional scale,
Science of the total environment 596-597 (2017): 417–426. doi_10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.03.103,
DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.scitotenv.2017.03.103
Abstract
According to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an increase in ...
According to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an increase in the frequency and the intensity of extreme rainfall is expected in the Mediterranean area. Among different impacts, this increase might result in a variation in the frequency and the spatial distribution of rainfall-induced landslides, and in an increase in the size of the population exposed to landslide risk. We propose a method for the regional-scale evaluation of future variations in the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides, in response to changes in rainfall regimes. We exploit information on the occurrence of 603 rainfall-induced landslides in Calabria, southern Italy, in the period 1981-2010, and daily rainfall data recorded in the same period in the region. Furthermore, we use high-resolution climate projections based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In particular, we consider the mean variations between a 30-year future period (2036-2065) and the reference period 1981-2010 in three variables assumed as proxy for landslide activity_ annual rainfall, seasonal cumulated rainfall, and annual maxima of daily rainfall. Based on reliable correlations between landslide occurrence and weather variables estimated in the reference period, we assess future variations in rainfall-induced landslide occurrence for all the municipalities of Calabria. A + 45.7% and + 21.2% average regional variation in rainfall-induced landslide occurrence is expected in the region for the period 2036-2065, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. We also investigate the future variations in the impact of rainfall-induced landslides on the population of Calabria. We find a + 80.2% and + 54.5% increase in the impact on the population for the period 2036-2065, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. The proposed method is quantitative and reproducible, thus it can be applied in similar regions, where adequate landslide and rainfall information is available.
Data from https://intranet.cnr.it/people/
