Pubblicazioni

Publications found: 7385

Automatic mapping of event landslides at basin scale in Taiwan using a Montecarlo approach and synthetic land cover fingerprints

Mondini, Alessandro C.; Chang, Kang-Tsung; Chiang, Shou-Hao; Schlogel, Romy; Notarnicola, Claudia; Saito, Hitoshi, 2017, Automatic mapping of event landslides at basin scale in Taiwan using a Montecarlo approach and synthetic land cover fingerprints, International journal of applied earth observation and geoinformation 63 (2017): 112–121. doi_10.1016/j.jag.2017.07.016,

DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.jag.2017.07.016

Abstract
We propose a framework to systematically generate event landslide inventory maps from satellite images in ...
We propose a framework to systematically generate event landslide inventory maps from satellite images in southern Taiwan, where landslides are frequent and abundant. The spectral information is used to assess the pixel land cover class membership probability through a Maximum Likelihood classifier trained with randomly generated synthetic land cover spectral fingerprints, which are obtained from an independent training images dataset. Pixels are classified as landslides when the calculated landslide class membership probability, weighted by a susceptibility model, is higher than membership probabilities of other classes. We generated synthetic fingerprints from two FORMOSAT-2 images acquired in 2009 and tested the procedure on two other images, one in 2005 and the other in 2009. We also obtained two landslide maps through manual interpretation. The agreement between the two sets of inventories is given by the Cohen's k coefficients of 0.62 and 0.64, respectively. This procedure can now classify a new FORMOSAT-2 image automatically facilitating the production of landslide inventory maps.
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Soil variability and biogeochemical fluxes_ Toward a better understanding of soil processes at the land surface

Martinez, G.; Brocca, L.; Gerke, H. H.; Pachepsky, Y. A., 2017, Soil variability and biogeochemical fluxes_ Toward a better understanding of soil processes at the land surface, Vadose zone journal 16 (2017). doi_10.2136/vzj2017.07.0145,

DOI: 10.2136%2Fvzj2017.07.0145

Abstract
Soil biogeochemical fluxes in the vadose zone are characterized by a large degree of variability ...
Soil biogeochemical fluxes in the vadose zone are characterized by a large degree of variability in space and time. This fact leads to the need for the development and application of appropriate methodologies to better understand the high nonlinearity and complex feedback mechanisms responsible for such fluxes. In this sense, there still exists a lack of knowledge in topics such as the scale dependence of the spatial and temporal variability of the controls on soil moisture and biodegradation rates and the dynamic behavior of flow and transport model parameter, and its association with the presence of roots. Knowledge of the variability of biogeochemical fluxes is needed for assorted applications ranging from natural hazards and environmental pollution risk assessment to agricultural production and water resources management. The contributions to this special section epitomize the ongoing effort toward the characterization, quantification, modeling, and understanding of biogeochemical fluxes in the vadose zone at several spatial and temporal scales. The main progress has been the identification of different controls on soil moisture and biodegradation rates depending on the scale of the study as well as the important dependence of the spatial and temporal variability of biogeochemical fluxes on dynamic properties such as vegetation and weather variables.
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Distributed optical fibre sensing for early detection of shallow landslides triggering

Luca Schenato, Luca Palmieri, Matteo Camporese, Silvia Bersan, Simonetta Cola, Alessandro Pasuto, Andrea Galtarossa, Paolo Salandin & Paolo Simonini, 2017, Distributed optical fibre sensing for early detection of shallow landslides triggering, Scientific reports (Nature Publishing Group) (2017). doi_10.1038/s41598-017-12610-1,

DOI: 10.1038%2Fs41598-017-12610-1

Abstract
A distributed optical fibre sensing system is used to measure landslide-induced strains on an optical ...
A distributed optical fibre sensing system is used to measure landslide-induced strains on an optical fibre buried in a large scale physical model of a slope. The fibre sensing cable is deployed at the predefined failure surface and interrogated by means of optical frequency domain reflectometry. The strain evolution is measured with centimetre spatial resolution until the occurrence of the slope failure. Standard legacy sensors measuring soil moisture and pore water pressure are installed at different depths and positions along the slope for comparison and validation. The evolution of the strain field is related to landslide dynamics with unprecedented resolution and insight. In fact, the results of the experiment clearly identify several phases within the evolution of the landslide and show that optical fibres can detect precursory signs of failure well before the collapse, paving the way for the development of more effective early warning systems.
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Geomorphic effects caused by heavy rainfall in southern Calabria (Italy) on 30 October-1 November 2015

Valeria Rago (a), Francesco Chiaravalloti (a), Giovanna Chiodo (b), Salvatore Gabriele (a), Valeria Lupiano (a), Rosa Nicastro (b), Annamaria D. Pellegrino (b), Antonio Procopio (a), Salvatore Siviglia (b), Oreste G. Terranova (a) and Giulio G. R. Iovine (a), 2017, Geomorphic effects caused by heavy rainfall in southern Calabria (Italy) on 30 October-1 November 2015, Journal of maps 13 (2017): 836–843. doi_10.1080/17445647.2017.1390499,

DOI: 10.1080%2F17445647.2017.1390499

Abstract
A severe rainfall event occurred in southern Calabria between 29 October and 2 November 2015, ...
A severe rainfall event occurred in southern Calabria between 29 October and 2 November 2015, causing two deaths and serious damage to transport infrastructure. Widespread slope erosion and thousands of shallow landslides were triggered on the slopes, combined with flooding and transport of debris along the streams. Rains recorded by the regional gauge network and the national radar monitoring system were analysed by means of Kriging techniques. Ground effects were surveyed in the field, and mapped using post-event air photos taken along the coastal sector. Shallow landslides, soil erosion (including sheet, rill, and gully erosion), flooding, lateral erosion, and debris deposition along streambeds, overflow on lateral slopes, and fan deposition at the mouths of the streams were mapped at 1_60,000 scale. Isohyets of the rainfall event - in terms of cumulative maxima over 24 h - are also shown on the Main Map. In Annex A, a list of notices of processes and/or damage, arranged by municipalities, with coordinates, types of ground effect, and synthetic descriptions, is also provided.
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Sistemi di monitoraggio e allarme per le colate detritiche_ limiti e potenzialità

Marchi L., 2017, Sistemi di monitoraggio e allarme per le colate detritiche_ limiti e potenzialità, Dissesto idrogeologico e pianificazione comunale di protezione civile, Avellino, 17/10/2017,

Abstract
Il contributo presenta le caratteristiche essenziali dei sistemi di allarme per le colate detritiche e ...
Il contributo presenta le caratteristiche essenziali dei sistemi di allarme per le colate detritiche e ne descrive limiti e potenzialità, con particolare riguardo all'impiego nella gestione del rischio a scala locale.
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Characteristics and triggering mechanism of Xinmo village landslide on 24 June 2017 in Sichuan, China

Su, L., Hu, K., Zhang, W., Wang, J., Lei, Y., Zhang, C., Cui, P., Pasuto, A., Zheng, Q., 2017, Characteristics and triggering mechanism of Xinmo village landslide on 24 June 2017 in Sichuan, China, Journal of mountain science (Online) 14 (2017): 1689–1700. doi_10.1007/s11629-017-4609-3,

DOI: 10.1007%2Fs11629-017-4609-3

Abstract
At 5_ 39 AM on 24 June 2017, a huge landslide-debris avalanche occurred on Fugui ...
At 5_ 39 AM on 24 June 2017, a huge landslide-debris avalanche occurred on Fugui Mountain at Xinmo village, Diexi town, Maoxian county, Sichuan province, China. The debris blocked the Songpinggou River for about 2 km, resulting in a heavy loss of both human lives and properties (10 deaths, 3 injuries, 73 missing, and 103 houses completely destroyed). The objectives of this paper are to understand the overall process and triggering factors of this landslide and to explore the affecting factors for its long term evolution before failure. Post event surveys were carried out the day after the landslide occurrence. Information was gathered from literature and on-site investigation and measurement. Topography, landforms, lithology, geological setting, earthquake history, meteorological and hydrological data of the area were analysed. Aerial photographs and other remote sensing information were used for evaluation and discussion. Eye witnesses also provided a lot of helpful information for us to understand the process of initiation, development and deposition. The depositional characteristics of the moving material as well as the traces of the movement, the structural features of the main scarp and the seismic waves induced by the slide are presented and discussed in detail in this paper. The results show that the mechanism of the landslide is a sudden rupture of the main block caused by the instability of a secondary block at a higher position. After the initiation, the failed rock mass at higher position overloaded the main block at the lower elevation and collapsed in tandem. Fragmentation of the rock mass occurred later, thus forming a debris avalanche with high mobility. This landslide case indicates that such seismic events could influence geological hazards for over 80 years and this study provides reference to the long term susceptibility and risk assessment of secondary geological hazards from earthquake.
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Gender, age and circumstances analysis of flood and landslide fatalities in Italy.

Salvati, Paola; Petrucci, Olga; Rossi, Mauro; Bianchi, Cinzia; Pasqua, Aurora A; Guzzetti, Fausto, 2017, Gender, age and circumstances analysis of flood and landslide fatalities in Italy., Science of the total environment 610-611 (2017): 867–879. doi_10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.08.064,

DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.scitotenv.2017.08.064

Abstract
Floods and landslides are frequent and destructive geo-hydrological hazards that cause harm to people every ...
Floods and landslides are frequent and destructive geo-hydrological hazards that cause harm to people every year. We analysed data on 1292 landslide and 771 flood fatalities that occurred in Italy in the 50-year period 1965-2014, to determine the dependence of the fatalities on gender and age and the circumstances of death by type of hazard. The multinomial probability mass function of the expected fatalities by gender and age, as reported by national census data, were estimated and compared with the observed landslide and flood fatalities. We identified the age categories over or under represented when the observed fatalities were respectively higher or lower than the modelled expected deaths. We found that in Italy males are more vulnerable to floods and landslides for most of the age categories. Apart from children, males are over-represented up to the age of 89 for floods and up to 79 for landslides, whereas females are under-represented up to the age of 59 for floods and landslides, and over-represented above 70 for floods and between 60 and 79 for landslides. To consider the demographic and socio-cultural changes over time, we performed a temporal analysis splitting the record into two non-overlapping subsets of 25year each. The analysis demonstrated that the over-representation of males compared to the females, both for landslide and flood is statistically significant and does not vary in time, indicating a different propensity towards the risk taking and a different degree of exposure between males and females. Analysis of the data allowed to identify the common circumstances of death. Landslides fatalities occurred frequently indoor, whereas the majority of the flood fatalities occurred outdoor, outlining the different dynamics of the hazards. Floods killed numerous people along roads and drivers or passengers travelling in vehicles. We expect that the results of this work will be helpful to design recommendations for self-protecting actions, and proactive policies that can contribute to reduce the human toll of floods and landslides in Italy, and elsewhere.
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A comprehensive approach to the knowledge of the coastal carbonate aquifers of Adriatic and Ionian Seas

Polemio M., 2017, A comprehensive approach to the knowledge of the coastal carbonate aquifers of Adriatic and Ionian Seas, 44th Annual Congress of the International Association of Hydrogeologists (IAH) "Groundwater Heritage and Sustainability", Dubrovnik (Croatia), September 25th to 29th 2017,

Abstract
The increasing groundwater exploitation and contamination risks due to the progressive population growth in coastal ...
The increasing groundwater exploitation and contamination risks due to the progressive population growth in coastal areas are emphasized in the case of carbonate coastal aquifers (CCAs), the peculiarities of which, especially in the Mediterranean basin, constitute a scientific matter of worldwide relevance. The CCAs of the Adriatic and Ionian coasts not only ensure the socio-economic development of the populations but feeds with their spring waters valuable wetland and coastal environments with relevant and highly positive effects on ecosystems. The groundwater resources of CCAs are highly vulnerable, especially if affected by karstic phenomena, to the quality and quantity degradation phenomena, not only for the increasing water demand and the decreasing recharge due to climate changes but also in relation to the sea level changes and the pollutant loads due to the contamination occurred in the whole hydrogeological basins. The aim of this study is to offer a systematic and synoptic view, useful for knowledge, management and forecast purposes, contributing to assure enduring availability of high quality groundwater, conciliating water demand satisfaction with the ecological needs of coastal Adriatic and Ionian environments in which the role of groundwater is very important. A geodatabase, collecting information for all carbonate aquifers present along the Adriatic and Ionian coast, have been created. At the core, there is a Geographic Information System, in which are placed the spatial information regarding the geology of aquifers, hydrogeological and geochemical features, together with specific information concerning groundwater use of CCAs. The added value of this database is the availability of a wide bibliography related to CCAs, together with a schematised summary of key information realised considering available information in the whole geodatabase. Starting from this idea, the cooperation between hydrogeologists experts of different areas, have enabled to focus on some specific areas of peculiar hydrogeological interest, as for the CCAs of Apulia (SE Italy), South-western Slovenia, Western and South Croatia, Montenegrian coast (Boka bay) and Western Greece.
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A comprehensive approach to the knowledge of the coastal carbonate aquifers of Adriatic and Ionian Seas

De Giorgio, G.(1), Brencic, M. (2), Matic, N.(3), Radojevic D.(4), Voudouris, K.(5), Zuffianò, L.E.(1), Polemio, M.(1), 2017, A comprehensive approach to the knowledge of the coastal carbonate aquifers of Adriatic and Ionian Seas, 44th Annual Congress of the International Association of Hydrogeologists (IAH) "Groundwater Heritage and Sustainability", pp. 361–361, Dubrovnik (Croatia), September 25th to 29th 2017,

Abstract
The increasing groundwater exploitation and contamination risks due to the progressive population growth in coastal ...
The increasing groundwater exploitation and contamination risks due to the progressive population growth in coastal areas are emphasized in the case of carbonate coastal aquifers (CCAs), the peculiarities of which, especially in the Mediterranean basin, constitute a scientific matter of worldwide relevance. The CCAs of the Adriatic and Ionian coasts not only ensure the socio-economic development of the populations but feeds with their spring waters valuable wetland and coastal environments with relevant and highly positive effects on ecosystems. The groundwater resources of CCAs are highly vulnerable, especially if affected by karstic phenomena, to the quality and quantity degradation phenomena, not only for the increasing water demand and the decreasing recharge due to climate changes but also in relation to the sea level changes and the pollutant loads due to the contamination occurred in the whole hydrogeological basins. The aim of this study is to offer a systematic and synoptic view, useful for knowledge, management and forecast purposes, contributing to assure enduring availability of high quality groundwater, conciliating water demand satisfaction with the ecological needs of coastal Adriatic and Ionian environments in which the role of groundwater is very important. A geodatabase, collecting information for all carbonate aquifers present along the Adriatic and Ionian coast, have been created. At the core, there is a Geographic Information System, in which are placed the spatial information regarding the geology of aquifers, hydrogeological and geochemical features, together with specific information concerning groundwater use of CCAs. The added value of this database is the availability of a wide bibliography related to CCAs, together with a schematised summary of key information realised considering available information in the whole geodatabase. Starting from this idea, the cooperation between hydrogeologists experts of different areas, have enabled to focus on some specific areas of peculiar hydrogeological interest, as for the CCAs of Apulia (SE Italy), South-western Slovenia, Western and South Croatia, Montenegrian coast (Boka bay) and Western Greece.
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Geo-hydrological risk perception_ A case study in Calabria (Southern Italy)

L. Antronico, R. Coscarelli, F. De Pascale, F. Muto, 2017, Geo-hydrological risk perception_ A case study in Calabria (Southern Italy), International journal of disaster risk reduction 25 (2017): 301–311. doi_10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.09.022,

DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.ijdrr.2017.09.022

Abstract
the impact of extreme events. In fact, the analysis of risk perception can be considered ...
the impact of extreme events. In fact, the analysis of risk perception can be considered as a part of risk reduction strategies and adaptation measures. In this paper, the perception of the geo-hydrological risk by the population living or working in a stretch of the Tyrrhenian coast of Calabria (Southern Italy) is analysed. The study area has recently been affected by debris flow events, with damages to private and public facilities, as well as infrastructures. In particular, the study, based on a questionnaire survey, considers_ i) general knowledge and personal experience of geo-hydrological phenomena; ii) awareness of risk exposure; iii) information and preparedness to geo-hydrological risks of the territory; iv) levels of safety. The results reveal that population consider the anthropic actions as a relevant cause of geo-hydrological phenomena. Moreover, the citizens of the study area, although showing a high civic sense, did not positively assess the actions of the local authorities, both in terms of territory management and people's education and/or information.
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Hydrological Risk_ Landslide

Nicola Casagli, Fausto Guzzetti, Michel Jaboyedoff, Farrokh Nadim, David Petley, 2017, Hydrological Risk_ Landslide, , 2017,

Abstract
Hydrological Risk_ Landslide ...
Hydrological Risk_ Landslide
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La conoscenza dei pericoli naturali come supporto ai processi decisionali di governo del territorio

L. Fondacci(1), M. Alvioli(2), F. Fiorucci(2), 2017, La conoscenza dei pericoli naturali come supporto ai processi decisionali di governo del territorio, Urbanistica informazioni (Testo stamp.) 271 (2017): 68–69.,

Abstract
La natura, ciò che concerne l'uomo prima che egli inizi a manipolare e trasformare , ...
La natura, ciò che concerne l'uomo prima che egli inizi a manipolare e trasformare , è stata arricchita o impoverita da attività a crescente specializzazione. Gli insediamenti umani che ne sono derivati non simboleggiano più le sollecitazioni dinamiche che ci incalzano nell'assegnare la nostra idea di futuro alle sostanze terrestri , ma sono la causa della più potente pressione antropica e dei più distruttivi eventi atmosferici . Nello scritto, frutto dell'incontro di discipline diverse , si sostiene che l'approccio scientifico alla gestione dei rischi naturali può diventare parte della pianificazione urbana e ambientale , e aiutare i decisori ad intraprendere tutte le azioni necessarie a prevenire o ridurre significativamente i rischi per la popolazione e le infrastrutture, in base a metodi oggettivi e replicabili.
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Characterization and quantification of path dependency in landslide susceptibility

Samia J.; Temme A.; Bregt A.; Wallinga J.; Guzzetti F.; Ardizzone F.; Rossi M., 2017, Characterization and quantification of path dependency in landslide susceptibility, Geomorphology (Amst.) 292 (2017): 16–24. doi_10.1016/j.geomorph.2017.04.039,

DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.geomorph.2017.04.039

Abstract
Landslides cause major environmental damage, economic losses and casualties. Although susceptibility to landsliding is usually ...
Landslides cause major environmental damage, economic losses and casualties. Although susceptibility to landsliding is usually considered an exclusively location-specific phenomenon, indications exist that landslide history co-determines susceptibility to future landslides. In this contribution, we quantified the role of landslide path dependency (the effect of landslides on landslides) using a multi-temporal landslide inventory from Italy. The fraction of landslides following earlier landslides in the same location exhibited an exponential decay, with susceptibility increasing 15-fold right after an initial landslide, and returning to pre-landslide values after about 25 years. We investigated the role of the geometry and location of a previous landslide for the occurrence of follow-up landslides. Larger landslides are more likely to cause follow-up landslides. Also landslide shape, topographic wetness index, the vertical distance to the nearest channel network, the absolute profile curvature and relative slope position of an earlier landslide, however, are important in predicting whether a follow-up landslide occurs. Combined in a binary logistic model, these attributes correctly predict 60% of times whether a landslide will be followed-up. These findings open the way for time-variant mapping of susceptibility to landslides, by including the effect of the spatio-temporal history of landsliding on susceptibility.
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GIS tools for preliminary debris-flow assessment at regional scale

Lorenzo Marchi, Marco Cavalli, Stefano Crema, Sebastiano Trevisani, 2017, GIS tools for preliminary debris-flow assessment at regional scale, 31st Session FAO EFC WPMMW - , 4-6 September 2017, Prague (Czech Republic), 4-6/09/2017,

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Sito RFI_ Pisciotta – km70 – Relazione finale – secondo semestre. Rapporto per RFI n.20 (agosto 2017).

GIULIO IOVINE (1) con la collaborazione di S. GABRIELE (1), V. BASILE (1), C. BRUNO (1), D. DISTILO (1), T. LE PERA (1), F. LUCÀ (2), V. LUPIANO (1), F. MUTO (1, 3), V. RAGO (1), 2017, Sito RFI_ Pisciotta – km70 – Relazione finale – secondo semestre. Rapporto per RFI n.20 (agosto 2017)., 2017,

Abstract
Si descrivono le attività condotte nel corso del secondo semestre di validità del contratto, con ...
Si descrivono le attività condotte nel corso del secondo semestre di validità del contratto, con analisi dei dati di monitoraggio della frana in località Pisciotta km 70 lungo la tratta Battipaglia-Reggio calabria.
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Geochemical and hydrogeological study to identify the source of nitrate in the carbonate groundwater (Southern Italy)

R. COSSU, L.E. ZUFFIANO', P.P. LIMONI, G. DE GIORGIO, P. PIZZARDINI, T. MIANO, D. MONDELLI, R. GARAVAGLIA, C. CARELLA, M. POLEMIO, 2017, Geochemical and hydrogeological study to identify the source of nitrate in the carbonate groundwater (Southern Italy), Sardinia 2017 / Sixteenth International Waste Management and Landfill Symposium, Cagliari, 2 - 6 October 2017,

Abstract
Where the unique natural water resource is groundwater, is the case of wide karstic area, ...
Where the unique natural water resource is groundwater, is the case of wide karstic area, the attention and the susceptibility of local communities and authorities to groundwater risks can be so high to determine relevant misunderstanding due the existence of a number of landfills. For solve this kind of situation, a multi-methodological approach is proposed with the purpose to clarify the role of landfill leakage in terms of groundwater quality degradation risks. The selected study area (SSA) is narrow portion of a wide and deep coastal karstic aquifer, for these characteristics to be considered a case of high complexity and susceptibility. Mainly nitrate and secondly iron groundwater concentration were considered anomalously high in some well of the SSA, not far from Bari (main town of Apulia, a region of Southern Italy), worried about the potential effects of some landfills located in SSA. Five landfills have operated from 1975, one after the other, using increasing safety and technological devices to reduce risks due to leachate leakages with consequent groundwater quality degradation. The multi-methodological approach, which could be potentially applied worldwide, includes_ the hydrogeological site characterization; the chemical study and the multi-isotope characterization of groundwater and leachate; the land use analysis and the estimation of nitrogen contributions deriving from agricultural activities, focusing on the use of fertilizers; the mineralogical study of groundwater suspended particles to define the origin of some substances, focusing on iron and manganese, relevant for the SSA. The hydrogeological site characterisation highlighted the local peculiarties of the aquifer. The chemical study was focused on the most important chemical features (Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+, Cl-, SO4 2-, NO3 -), especially to define geochemical peculiarties, along with some minor chemical elements were taken into account, to define globally the groundwater quality and the leachate characteristics. The environmental isotopes of hydrogen (H), carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and oxygen (O) were used to identify the groundwater provenance and the most relevant geochemical reactions. The oxygen-18 (18O) and deuterium (2H) stable isotopes were used to investigate the origin of water in the aquifer system of the study area. The combination of NO3 - concentration with ?15N-NO3 - and 18O-NO3 - in groundwater also provides valuable information for identifying the true sources of anthropoghenic NO3 -. Groundwater and leachate samples were analysed for 13C and Tritium (3H), completing the framework of knowledge on the role of leachate on groundwater as previous studies have demonstrated that the biogeochemical processes occurring within the landfill environment can produce a unique composition of these isotopes and therefore they can be utilized successfully to delineate the potential leachate influence. The land use analysis highlighted quantity and type of used fertilizers permitting to compare these with groundwater in terms isotopic signature. The mineralogical study demonstred the role of suspend natural parcticle due the presence of terre rosse (red clays) in some groundwater samples. The approach confirmed globally, meaning with all the defined results, which are not quality degradation effects on the sampled groundwater.
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Temperature measurements in the alpine cryosphere_ a new approach

Nigrelli G., Chiarle M., Merlone A., Coppa G., Musacchio C., Silvestri P., 2017, Temperature measurements in the alpine cryosphere_ a new approach, Scientific session of the MeteoMet Week, Moncalieri, 13-14/09/2017,

Abstract
Temperature measurements in the alpine cryosphere_ a new approach in the framework of the RiST ...
Temperature measurements in the alpine cryosphere_ a new approach in the framework of the RiST Project and as collaborator of the MeteoMet2 project
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A stochastic approach for the estimation of the occurrence probabilities of severe dry and wet events_ an application in Southern Italy

Sirangelo B., Caloiero T., Coscarelli R., Ferrari E., 2017, A stochastic approach for the estimation of the occurrence probabilities of severe dry and wet events_ an application in Southern Italy, 10th HyMeX International Workshop, Barcellona, 04-07/07/2017,

Abstract
The limited number of very wet or dry events in the historical rainfall series make ...
The limited number of very wet or dry events in the historical rainfall series make it difficult to estimate their occurrence probabilities. For this reason, the scientists have to resort to stochastic models, by assuming a given structure of the underlying hydrological series. In this study, a stochastic procedure for modeling monthly data was applied to rainfall series registered in five regions of southern Italy (Campania, Apulia, Basilicata, Calabria and Sicily regions). The model adopts an autoregressive process for the residual correlative structure of monthly rainfall data, previously normalized and deseasonalised. Through a Monte Carlo technique, based on the proposed model, synthetic data were generated for each rain gauge. Then, extreme dry and wet periods and their occurrence frequencies were estimated at various time scales by applying the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to the synthetic data. The results clearly show greater probabilities of dry conditions than wet conditions. These outcomes are more evident when long time scales are considered.
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A stochastic model for the analysis of the occurrence probabilities of wet and dry periods in southern Italy

Caloiero T., Coscarelli R., Ferrari E., Sirangelo B., 2017, A stochastic model for the analysis of the occurrence probabilities of wet and dry periods in southern Italy, IAHS 2017 Scientific ASSEMBLY "Water and Development_ scientific challenges in addressing societal issues", Port Elizabeth, 10-14/07/2017,

Abstract
Rainfall anomalies, as very wet or dry periods, can quantitatively assessed through indices, which can ...
Rainfall anomalies, as very wet or dry periods, can quantitatively assessed through indices, which can characterize the severity of the events in terms of intensity, duration, frequency, recurrence probability and spatial extent. With reference to both dry and wet periods, very often the limited number of events in the historical series prevents scientists from the investigation of their probabilistic structure. Moreover, missing values may significantly influence duration and variability of these events. To overcome these difficulties, various stochastic models have been developed, by assuming a given structure of the underlying hydrological series, thus generating the intrinsic variability of the rainfall process, and analytically deriving the probabilistic behavior of dry and wet periods. In this work, a procedure for the stochastic modeling of monthly rainfall is applied to a high quality data base of monthly rainfall values observed in rain gauges of a large portion of southern Italy. The model adopts variable transformations, which are finalized to the deseasonalisation and the gaussianisation of the monthly rainfall process. The residual correlative structure of the normalized, deseasonalised monthly rainfall variate has been modeled by means of an autoregressive process, including a final procedure to test the autocorrelation of the series. After the estimation procedure of the model parameters, a Monte Carlo technique is applied for generating synthetic worlds to simulate the monthly rainfall of each rain gauge. Then, dry and wet periods were analyzed through the application of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The results showed that the proposed model provided a good representation of the monthly rainfall for the considered rain gauges. In particular, the results provided by the SPI application at different time scales indicate greater probability of dry conditions than wet conditions, especially when long-term precipitation patterns are considered.
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Learning from floods to mitigate flood risk

Kreibich H., Di Baldassarre G., Vorogushyn S., Aerts J.C.J.H., Apel H., Aronica G.T., Arnbjerg-Nielsen K., Bouwer L.M., Bubeck Ph., Caloiero T., Chinh D.T., Cortés M., Gain A.K., Giampá V., Kuhlicke Ch., Kundzewicz Z.W., Llasat M.C., Mård J., Matczak P., Mazzoleni M., Molinari D., Dung N.V., Petrucci O., Schröter K., Slager K., Thieken A.H., Ward P.J., Merz B.,, 2017, Learning from floods to mitigate flood risk, 7th International Conference on Flood Management (ICFM7), pp. 72–73, Leeds, 05-07/09/2017,

Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Flood risk is expected to increase in large parts of the world due ...
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Flood risk is expected to increase in large parts of the world due to climate change and globally increasing exposure. Efficient integrated flood risk management needs to be implemented to counteract this trend. Societies can learn from floods, and consequently improve their risk management. Objective of this study is to increase our knowledge on how societies learn from floods and what measures they implement to reduce their flood risk. METHOD Societal learning can occur through 'focusing events', i.e. events that provide a sudden, strong push for action (Kreibich et al. 2011). Thus, we undertook a semi-quantitative assessment of eight paired flood events around the world, i.e. consecutive floods that occurred in the same catchments, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. We present these eight success stories of risk reduction and unravel what risk management concepts were implemented after the first flood and how these changed the flood risk and thus the resulting damage of the second flood. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability. The role of changes in exposure is less apparent; positive and negative changes are reported. In some cases, significant investments in flood protection between the floods have played a large role in exposure and damage reduction. Reduction of vulnerability seems to be a key for better risk reduction via integrated flood risk management. Thus, efforts need to be redoubled to improve our understanding of vulnerability.
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Impact of rainfall spatial aggregation on the identification of debris flow occurrence thresholds

Francesco Marra (1), Elisa Destro (2), Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos (3), Davide Zoccatelli (1,2), Jean Dominique Creutin (4), Fausto Guzzetti (5), and Marco Borga (2), 2017, Impact of rainfall spatial aggregation on the identification of debris flow occurrence thresholds, Hydrology and earth system sciences (Online) 21 (2017): 4525–4532. doi_10.5194/hess-21-4525-2017,

DOI: 10.5194%2Fhess-21-4525-2017

Abstract
The systematic underestimation observed in de- bris flow early warning thresholds has been associated with ...
The systematic underestimation observed in de- bris flow early warning thresholds has been associated with the use of sparse rain gauge networks to represent highly non-stationary rainfall fields. Remote sensing products per- mit concurrent estimates of debris-flow-triggering rainfall for areas poorly covered by rain gauges, but the impact of using coarse spatial resolutions to represent such rainfall fields is still to be assessed. This study uses fine-resolution radar data for ~ 100 debris flows in the eastern Italian Alps to (i) quan- tify the effect of spatial aggregation (1-20 km grid size) on the estimation of debris-flow-triggering rainfall and on the identification of early warning thresholds and (ii) compare thresholds derived from aggregated estimates and rain gauge networks of different densities. The impact of spatial aggre-gation is influenced by the spatial organization of rainfall and by its dependence on the severity of the triggering rainfall. Thresholds from aggregated estimates show 8-21 % varia- tion in the parameters whereas 10-25 % systematic variation results from the use of rain gauge networks, even for densi- ties as high as 1/10 km-2.
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Geomorphic response to an extreme flood in two Mediterranean rivers (northeastern Sardinia, Italy): Analysis of controlling factors

Righini M.; Surian N.; Wohl E.; Marchi L.; Comiti F.; Amponsah W.; Borga M., 2017, Geomorphic response to an extreme flood in two Mediterranean rivers (northeastern Sardinia, Italy): Analysis of controlling factors, Geomorphology (Amst.) 290 (2017). doi_10.1016/j.geomorph.2017.04.014,

DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.geomorph.2017.04.014

Abstract
A high-magnitude, low-frequency flash flood affected two ungauged rivers (northeastern Sardinia, Italy) on 18 November ...
A high-magnitude, low-frequency flash flood affected two ungauged rivers (northeastern Sardinia, Italy) on 18 November 2013. This study investigates the response of channel reaches in a Mediterranean environment featuring different morphological settings (i.e., alluvial, semialluvial, and bedrock boundaries) with the aims of (i) detecting the morphological effects of this large flood and (ii) analyzing a range of morphological and hydraulic variables as potential controlling factors of channel response. Channel widening was the dominant geomorphic response observed, and it occurred at different magnitudes among the study subreaches. Within individual subreaches, channel width increased from 1.1 to 6.2 times the pre-flood width. A significant trend in channel widening is observed, especially in alluvial subreaches where the narrowest channels were prone to enlarge more compared to the widest channels. Considerable erosion of valley sides also occurred in confined and partly confined semialluvial and bedrock subreaches. A range of parameters influenced the geomorphic role of the flood, and a series of selected morphological and hydraulic controlling factors showed robust correlations with changes in channel width, although correlations were stronger in alluvial subreaches. Analysis and documentation of channel response and its variability through different morphological settings is crucial to provide a basis from which to forecast future river sensitivity to geomorphic adjustment to high-magnitude floods and improve flood management strategies.
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Country Report_ Italy – 31st Session FAO EFC WPMMW – Prague (Czech Republic), 4-6 September 2017

Piermaria Corona, Roberto Tognetti, Lorenzo Marchi, Flavia Tauro, 2017, Country Report_ Italy – 31st Session FAO EFC WPMMW – Prague (Czech Republic), 4-6 September 2017, 2017,

Abstract
The first part of the report summarises the most important features of mountain watersheds in ...
The first part of the report summarises the most important features of mountain watersheds in Italy, with regard to the evolution of land use, the impact of geo-hydrological hazards in the mountain territory, and the ecosytem services of mountain forests. The second and third sections of the document describe the project aimed at the study of mountain watersheds and relevant events (workshops, courses, etc.) implemented in the last two years in Italy.
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Characteristics of rainfall responsible for debris flows in Wenchuan Earthquake area

Guo X.; Cui P.; Marchi L.; Ge Y., 2017, Characteristics of rainfall responsible for debris flows in Wenchuan Earthquake area, Environmental earth sciences (Print) 76 (2017). doi_10.1007/s12665-017-6940-y,

DOI: 10.1007%2Fs12665-017-6940-y

Abstract
The ability to forecast debris flows is important because of their frequent occurrence and potential ...
The ability to forecast debris flows is important because of their frequent occurrence and potential for large-scale damage in the Wenchuan Earthquake-hit area. Accurate understanding of the characteristics of rainfall responsible for triggering debris flows is necessary for an effective early warning procedure. This study examined the general characteristics and spatiotemporal variation of rainfall events that responsible for debris flows. Analysis was performed on rainfall data extracted during 2008-2013. The results revealed that the rainfall thresholds for debris flows varied annually and showed tendency toward higher conditions required. The coefficient of variation of relevant rainfall events indicated that the characteristics of the rainstorms changed. In addition, the coefficient of deviation revealed the spatial variation of rainfall in subregions, which was attributed to differences of the local climatic conditions that control debris flow occurrence. The primary controlling rainfall indices for triggering debris flows were filtered, and the most suitable models for establishing rainfall thresholds were selected. Ultimately, the rainfall thresholds were obtained for each subregion within the study area.
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Il progetto RiST e il laboratorio all’aperto della Bessanese_ primi risultati e prospettive

Nigrelli G., Chiarle M., Silvestri P., Merlone A., Coppa G., Musacchio C., 2017, Il progetto RiST e il laboratorio all’aperto della Bessanese_ primi risultati e prospettive, Ricerca ad alta quota_ il progetto RiST e il laboratorio all'aperto della Bessanese, Rifugio Gastaldi, 17/08/2017,

Abstract
Il progetto RiST e il laboratorio all'aperto della Bessanese_ primi risultati e prospettive ...
Il progetto RiST e il laboratorio all'aperto della Bessanese_ primi risultati e prospettive
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A Review of Distributed Fibre Optic Sensors for Geo-Hydrological Applications

Luca Schenato, 2017, A Review of Distributed Fibre Optic Sensors for Geo-Hydrological Applications, Applied sciences 7 (2017): 1–42. doi_10.3390/app7090896,

DOI: 10.3390%2Fapp7090896

Abstract
Distributed optical fibre sensing, employing either Rayleigh, Raman, or Brillouin scattering, is the only physical-contact ...
Distributed optical fibre sensing, employing either Rayleigh, Raman, or Brillouin scattering, is the only physical-contact sensor technology capable of accurately estimating physical fields with spatial continuity along the fibre. This unique feature and the other features of standard optical fibre sensors (e.g., minimal invasiveness and lightweight, remote powering/interrogating capabilities) have for many years promoted the technology to be a promising candidate for geo-hydrological monitoring. Relentless research efforts are being undertaken to bring the technology to complete maturity through laboratory, physical models, and in-situ tests. The application of distributed optical fibre sensors to geo-hydrological monitoring is here reviewed and discussed, along with basic principles and main acquisition techniques. Among the many existing geo-hydrological processes, the emphasis is placed on those related to soil levees, slopes/landslide, and ground subsidence that constitute a significant percentage of current geohazards.
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Adaptation to flood risk – results of international paired flood event studies

Kreibich H., Di Baldassarre G., Vorogushyn S., Aerts J.C.J.H., Apel1 H., Aronica G.T., Arnbjerg-Nielsen K., Bouwer L.M., Bubeck Ph., Caloiero T., Chinh D.T., Cortés M., Gain A.K., Giampá V., Kuhlicke Ch., Kundzewicz Z.W., Llasat M.C., Mård J., Matczak P., Mazzoleni M., Molinari D., Dung N.V., Petrucci O., Schröter K., Slager K., Thieken A.H., Ward P.J., Merz B., 2017, Adaptation to flood risk – results of international paired flood event studies, Earth's future 5 (2017): 953–965. doi_10.1002/2017EF000606,

DOI: 10.1002%2F2017EF000606

Abstract
As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers ...
As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers of changes in risk is essential for effective adaptation. To gain more knowledge on the basis of empirical case studies, we analyze eight paired floods, i.e. consecutive flood events that occurred in the same region, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. These success stories of risk reduction were selected across different socio-economic and hydroclimatic contexts. The potential of societies to adapt is uncovered by describing triggered societal changes, as well as formal measures and spontaneous processes that reduced flood risk. This novel approach has the potential to build the basis for an international data collection and analysis effort to better understand and attribute changes in risk due to hydrological extremes in the framework of the IAHSs Panta Rhei initiative. Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability, e.g. via raised risk awareness, preparedness and improvements of organizational emergency management. Thus, vulnerability reduction plays an essential role for successful adaptation. Our work shows that there is a high potential to adapt, but there remains the challenge to stimulate measures that reduce vulnerability and risk in periods in which extreme events do not occur.
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Trend analysis of monthly mean values and extreme indices of daily temperature in a region of southern Italy

Caloiero T.; Coscarelli R.; Ferrari E.; Sirangelo B., 2017, Trend analysis of monthly mean values and extreme indices of daily temperature in a region of southern Italy, International journal of climatology 37 (2017): 284–297. doi_10.1002/joc.5003,

DOI: 10.1002%2Fjoc.5003

Abstract
The analyses of temperature extremes can be very useful because they are highly representative of ...
The analyses of temperature extremes can be very useful because they are highly representative of the climatic tendency of an area. In this study, 19 temperature series registered in southern Italy have been analysed for detecting trends through the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. The tendencies have been detected since 1951 for the maximum and minimum monthly temperatures and for several indices of daily extremes. As a result, the minimum and maximum monthly temperatures mainly denote a positive trend for spring and summer months and a marked negative one in September. Moreover, the trend analysis on the extreme temperature indices shows opposite behaviours_ a clear positive tendency in the frequency and intensity of the highest values and some negative trends for the lowest ones.
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Impacts of past and future land changes on landslides in southern Italy

Stefano Luigi Gariano (1,2), Olga Petrucci (3), Guido Rianna (4), Monia Santini (5,6), Fausto Guzzetti (1), 2017, Impacts of past and future land changes on landslides in southern Italy, Regional environmental change (Internet) 18 (2017): 437–449. doi_10.1007/s10113-017-1210-9,

DOI: 10.1007%2Fs10113-017-1210-9

Abstract
Land use and land cover (LULC), as well as their geographical and temporal variations, affect ...
Land use and land cover (LULC), as well as their geographical and temporal variations, affect landslide occurrence and the related risk, in ways that are difficult to determine. Here, we propose a method for the regional analysis of variations in landslide frequency and distribution in response to observed and projected LULC changes. The method is quantitative and reproducible. We test it in Calabria, southern Italy, where a catalogue of 7037 landslides occurred between 1921 and 2010 is available. First, we defined empirical relationships linking the observed LULC variations to landslide occurrence. We found that, in the period 1921-1965, the majority of the landslides occurred in forests and grassland areas, while, in the period 1966-2010, the landslide density became higher in grassland areas, lower in arable lands and remained about constant in the forests. We consider this an evidence of the positive effect of agricultural practices and land management in reducing landslide occurrence. We noticed that both the landslide occurrence and the distribution of the vulnerable elements changed in the observation period. Then, we calculated the projected variations (to 2050) in landslide occurrence related to 32 scenarios of LULC changes. Our projections reveal a modest increase in landslide occurrence in all scenarios, in the range from 0.9 to 3.2%, with an average increase of 2%. Considering all scenarios, we expect an increase in the number of landslides due to LULC variations in 291 municipalities in Calabria (71%), with 4 municipalities where the increase is expected to exceed 50%. We maintain that the observed and the projected variations in the occurrence of landslides in Calabria are related to changes in natural (i.e. the number and distribution of the triggering events) and environmental and societal (i.e. the number and the distribution of the exposed elements) components.
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The Vajont Valley (Eastern Alps): A Complex Landscape Deeply Marked by Landsliding

Alessandro Pasuto, 2017, The Vajont Valley (Eastern Alps): A Complex Landscape Deeply Marked by Landsliding, Landscapes and Landforms of Italy, edited by Soldai, Mauro e Marchetti, Mauro, pp. 135–145, 2017,

Abstract
On 9th October 1963 the Vajont Valley was strongly modified due to a world known landslide, ...
On 9th October 1963 the Vajont Valley was strongly modified due to a world known landslide, which claimed the lives of almost 2000 people. At that time a huge amount of material collapsed into an artificial reservoir generating a water wave, which overtopped the dam destroying seven villages in the Piave River Valley. The landslide accumulation filled the valley blocking its drainage that is now guaranteed by a by-pass built soon after a previous smaller landslide occurred on 4th November 1960. However, the whole valley has been affected by a series of landslides, which buried ancient glacial and fluvial landforms sealing and preserving them. The chapter is therefore not only focusing on the Vajont Landslide, but also on other gravitational, glacial and fluvial landforms, which are crucial for the reconstruction of the post-glacial geomorphological evolution.
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Soil electrical resistivity for spatial sampling design, prediction and uncertainty modelling of soil moisture

Calamita, G.1, Perrone, A.1, Brocca, L.2, Straface, S.1,3., 2017, Soil electrical resistivity for spatial sampling design, prediction and uncertainty modelling of soil moisture, Vadose zone journal 16 (2017). doi_10.2136/vzj2017.01.0022,

DOI: 10.2136%2Fvzj2017.01.0022

Abstract
Geophysics constitutes a possible approach to estimate soil moisture with cost-competitive and minimally invasive measurements ...
Geophysics constitutes a possible approach to estimate soil moisture with cost-competitive and minimally invasive measurements carrying information about various soil physical properties. In this study, a geostatistical-based methodology for the integration of easily obtainable shallow soil electrical resistivity with soil moisture measurements was developed. Simultaneous and co-located surface measurements of soil moisture and electrical resistivity were performed during two field surveys in a test site located in central Italy. After an accurate characterization of the spatial auto-and cross-semivariance of soil moisture and electrical resistivity, an approach to design a soil moisture sampling strategy was set up. Soil moisture point predictions and uncertainties were estimated by ordinary co-kriging (OCK) interpolation and co-kriging simulation (CS), respectively. Results showed that at least 17 spatially regular soil moisture samples integrated with relatively denser soil electrical resistivity data via OCK are necessary to obtain a sufficiently accurate (RMSE <= 0.05) reconstruction of the average soil moisture at the test field. A comparison with the ordinary kriging interpolator, which takes into account only soil moisture samples, showed an improvement for OCK point prediction accuracy (RMSE from 0.049 to 0.039 and explained variance from 27 to 50%). The spatial uncertainty modeling empirically confirmed that geostatistical simulations furnish spatial uncertainty patterns more realistic and less dependent on the sampling scheme than interpolation approaches. Compared with sequential Gaussian simulations, which take into account only soil moisture data, the CS provided a model of local uncertainty with narrower probability intervals and lower prediction uncertainty.
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ESA CCI Soil Moisture for improved Earth system understanding_ state-of-the art and future directions

Dorigo, W.,Wagner, W., Albergel, C., Albrecht, F., Balsamo, G., Brocca, L., Chung, D., Ertl, M., Forkel, M., Gruber, A., Haas, D., Hamer, P. Hirschi, M., Ikonen, J., de Jeu, R., Kidd, R., Lahoz, W., Liu, Y.Y., Miralles, D., Mistelbauer, T., Nicolai-Shaw, N., Parinussa, R., Pratola, C., Reimer, C., van der Schalie, R., Seneviratne, S.I., Smolander, T., Lecomte, P., 2017, ESA CCI Soil Moisture for improved Earth system understanding_ state-of-the art and future directions, Remote sensing of environment 203 (2017): 185–215. doi_10.1016/j.rse.2017.07.001,

DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.rse.2017.07.001

Abstract
Climate Data Records of soil moisture are fundamental for improving our understanding of long-term dynamics ...
Climate Data Records of soil moisture are fundamental for improving our understanding of long-term dynamics in the coupled water, energy, and carbon cycles over land. To respond to this need, in 2012 the European Space Agency (ESA) released the first multi-decadal, global satellite-observed soil moisture (SM) dataset as part of its Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program. This product, named ESA CCI SM, combines various single-sensor active and passive microwave soil moisture products into three harmonised products_ a merged ACTIVE, a merged PASSIVE, and a COMBINED active + passive microwave product. Compared to the first product release, the latest version of ESA CCI SM includes a large number of enhancements, incorporates various new satellite sensors, and extends its temporal coverage to the period 1978-2015. In this study, we first provide a comprehensive overview of the characteristics, evolution, and performance of the ESA CCI SM products. Based on original research and a review of existing literature we show that the product quality has steadily increased with each successive release and that the merged products generally outperform the single-sensor input products. Although ESA CCI SM generally agrees well with the spatial and temporal patterns estimated by land surface models and observed in-situ, we identify surface conditions (e.g., dense vegetation, organic soils) for which it still has large uncertainties. Second, capitalising on the results of > 100 research studies that made use of the ESA CCI SM data we provide a synopsis of how it has contributed to improved process understanding in the following Earth system domains_ climate variability and change, land-atmosphere interactions, global biogeochemical cycles and ecology, hydrological and land surface modelling, drought applications, and meteorology. While in some disciplines the use of ESA CCI SM is already widespread (e.g. in the evaluation of model soil moisture states) in others (e.g. in numerical weather prediction or flood forecasting) it is still in its infancy. The latter is partly related to current shortcomings of the product, e.g., the lack of near-real-time availability and data gaps in time and space. This study discloses the discrepancies between current ESA CCI SM product characteristics and the preferred characteristics of long-term satellite soil moisture products as outlined by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), and provides important directions for future ESA CCI SM product improvements to bridge these gaps.
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Validation practices for satellite based earth observation data across communities

Loew, A., Bell, W., Brocca, L., Bulgin, C., Burdanowitz, J., Calbet, X., Donner, R., Ghent, D., Gruber, A., Kaminski, T., Kinzel, J., Klepp, C., Lambert, J.C., Schaepman-Strub, G., Schröder, M., Verhoelst, T., 2017, Validation practices for satellite based earth observation data across communities, Reviews of geophysics (1985) (2017). doi_10.1002/2017rg000562,

DOI: 10.1002%2F2017rg000562

Abstract
Assessing the inherent uncertainties in satellite data products is a challenging task. Different technical approaches ...
Assessing the inherent uncertainties in satellite data products is a challenging task. Different technical approaches have been developed in the Earth Observation (EO) communities to address the validation problem which results in a large variety of methods as well as terminology. This paper reviews state-of-the-art methods of satellite validation and documents their similarities and differences. First the overall validation objectives and terminologies are specified, followed by a generic mathematical formulation of the validation problem. Metrics currently used as well as more advanced EO validation approaches are introduced thereafter. An outlook on the applicability and requirements of current EO validation approaches and targets is given.
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The multi temporal

Barbetta, Silvia; Coccia, Gabriele; Moramarco, Tommaso; Brocca, Luca; Todini, Ezio, 2017, The multi temporal, Journal of hydrology (Amst.) 551 (2017): 555–576. doi_10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.06.030,

DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.jhydrol.2017.06.030

Abstract
This work extends the multi-temporal approach of the Model Conditional Processor (MCP-MT) to the multi-model ...
This work extends the multi-temporal approach of the Model Conditional Processor (MCP-MT) to the multi-model case and to the four Truncated Normal Distributions (TNDs) approach, demonstrating the improvement on the single-temporal one. The study is framed in the context of probabilistic Bayesian decision-making that is appropriate to take rational decisions on uncertain future outcomes. As opposed to the direct use of deterministic forecasts, the probabilistic forecast identifies a predictive probability density function that represents a fundamental knowledge on future occurrences. The added value of MCP-MT is the identification of the probability that a critical situation will happen within the forecast lead-time and when, more likely, it will occur. MCP-MT is thoroughly tested for both single-model and multi-model configurations at a gauged site on the Tiber River, central Italy. The stages forecasted by two operative deterministic models, STAFOM-RCM and MISDc, are considered for the study. The dataset used for the analysis consists of hourly data from 34 flood events selected on a time series of six years. MCP-MT improves over the original models' forecasts_ the peak overestimation and the rising limb delayed forecast, characterizing MISDc and STAFOM-RCM respectively, are significantly mitigated, with a reduced mean error on peak stage from 45 to 5 cm and an increased coefficient of persistence from 0.53 up to 0.75. The results show that MCP-MT outperforms the single-temporal approach and is potentially useful for supporting decision-making because the exceedance probability of hydrometric thresholds within a forecast horizon and the most probable flooding time can be estimated.
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Modeling the water budget of the Upper Blue Nile basin using the JGrass-NewAge model system and satellite data

Abera, Wuletawu; Abera, Wuletawu; Formetta, Giuseppe; Brocca, Luca; Rigon, Riccardo, 2017, Modeling the water budget of the Upper Blue Nile basin using the JGrass-NewAge model system and satellite data, Hydrology and earth system sciences 21 (2017): 3145–3165. doi_10.5194/hess-21-3145-2017,

DOI: 10.5194%2Fhess-21-3145-2017

Abstract
The Upper Blue Nile basin is one of the most datascarce regions in developing countries, ...
The Upper Blue Nile basin is one of the most datascarce regions in developing countries, and hence the hydrological information required for informed decision making in water resource management is limited. The hydrological complexity of the basin, tied with the lack of hydrometeorological data, means that most hydrological studies in the region are either restricted to small subbasins where there are relatively better hydrometeorological data available, or on the whole-basin scale but at very coarse timescales and spatial resolutions. In this study we develop a methodology that can improve the state of the art by using available, but sparse, hydrometeorological data and satellite products to obtain the estimates of all the components of the hydrological cycle (precipitation, evapotranspiration, discharge, and storage). To obtain the water-budget closure, we use the JGrass-NewAge system and various remote sensing products. The satellite product SM2R-CCI is used for obtaining the rainfall inputs, SAF EUMETSAT for cloud cover fraction for proper net radiation estimation, GLEAM for comparison with NewAge-estimated evapotranspiration, and GRACE gravimetry data for comparison of the total water storage amounts available in the whole basin. Results are obtained at daily time steps for the period 1994-2009 (16 years), and they can be used as a reference for any water resource development activities in the region. The overall water-budget analysis shows that precipitation of the basin is 1360-230mm per year. Evapotranspiration accounts for 56% of the annual water budget, runoff is 33 %, storage varies from 10 to C17% of the water budget.
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Discharge estimation and forecasting by MODIS and altimetry data in Niger-Benue River

Tarpanelli, Angelica; Amarnath, Giriraj; Brocca, Luca; Massari, Christian; Moramarco, Tommaso, 2017, Discharge estimation and forecasting by MODIS and altimetry data in Niger-Benue River, Remote sensing of environment 195 (2017): 96–106. doi_10.1016/j.rse.2017.04.015,

DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.rse.2017.04.015

Abstract
Flooding is one of the most devastating natural hazards in the world and its forecast ...
Flooding is one of the most devastating natural hazards in the world and its forecast is essential in flood risk reduction and disaster response decision. The lack of adequate monitoring networks, especially in developing countries prevents near real-time flood prediction that could help to reduce the loss of lives and economic damages. In the last few years, increasing availability of multi-satellite sensors induced to develop new techniques for retrieving river discharge and especially in supporting discharge nowcasting and forecasting activities. Recently, the potential of radar altimetry to estimate water levels and discharge in ungauged river sites with good accuracy has been demonstrated. However, the considerable benefit derived from this technique is attenuated by the low revisit time of the satellite (10 or 35 days, depending on the satellite mission) causing delays on the predicting operations. For this reason, sensors with a higher temporal resolution such as the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), working in visible/Infra-Red bands, can support flood forecasting. In this study, we performed the forecast of river discharge by using MODIS and we compared it with the radar altimetry and in-situ data along the Niger-Benue River in Nigeria to develop an operational flood forecasting scheme that could help in rapid emergency response and decision making processes. In the first step, four MODIS products (daily and, 8-day from the TERRA and AQUA satellites) at two gauged sites were used for discharge estimation. Secondly, the capability of remote sensing sensors to forecast discharge a few days (~ 4 days) in advance at a downstream section using MODIS is analyzed and also compared with the one obtained by the use of radar altimetry by ENVISAT and Jason-2. The results confirmed the capability of the MODIS data to estimate river discharge with performance indices > 0.97 and 0.95 in terms of coefficient of correlation and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency. In particular, RMSE does not exceed 1300 m3/s and the fractional RMSE ranges between 0.15 and 0.23. For the forecasting exercise, both altimetry and MODIS provide satisfactory results with positive coefficient of persistence considering 4 days of lead time (> 0.34). Although altimetry was found to be more accurate in the forecasting of river discharge (RMSE ~ 350 m3/s), the much higher temporal resolution of MODIS guarantees a continuity that is more suitable to address operational activities.
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A Review of the Applications of ASCAT Soil Moisture Products

Brocca, Luca; Crow, Wade T.; Ciabatta, Luca; Ciabatta, Luca; Massari, Christian; De Rosnay, Patricia; Enenkel, Markus; Hahn, Sebastian; Amarnath, Giriraj; Camici, Stefania; Tarpanelli, Angelica; Wagner, Wolfgang, 2017, A Review of the Applications of ASCAT Soil Moisture Products, IEEE journal of selected topics in applied earth observations and remote sensing (Print) 10 (2017): 2285–2306. doi_10.1109/JSTARS.2017.2651140,

DOI: 10.1109%2FJSTARS.2017.2651140

Abstract
Remote sensing of soil moisture has reached a level of good maturity and accuracy for ...
Remote sensing of soil moisture has reached a level of good maturity and accuracy for which the retrieved products are ready to use in real-world applications. Due to the importance of soil moisture in the partitioning of the water and energy fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere, a wide range of applications can benefit from the availability of satellite soil moisture products. Specifically, the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) on board the series of Meteorological Operational (Metop) satellites is providing a near real time (and long-term, 9+ years starting from January 2007) soil moisture product, with a nearly daily (sub-daily after the launch of Metop-B) revisit time and a spatial sampling of 12.5 and 25 km. This study first performs a review of the climatic, meteorological, and hydrological studies that use satellite soil moisture products for a better understanding of the water and energy cycle. Specifically, applications that consider satellite soil moisture product for improving their predictions are analyzed and discussed. Moreover, four real examples are shown in which ASCAT soil moisture observations have been successfully applied toward_ 1) numerical weather prediction, 2) rainfall estimation, 3) flood forecasting, and 4) drought monitoring and prediction. Finally, the strengths and limitations of ASCAT soil moisture products and the way forward for fully exploiting these data in real-world applications are discussed.
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Accuracy versus variability of climate projections for flood assessment in central Italy

Camici, S.; Brocca, L.; Moramarco, T., 2017, Accuracy versus variability of climate projections for flood assessment in central Italy, Climatic change 141 (2017): 273–286. doi_10.1007/s10584-016-1876-x,

DOI: 10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1876-x

Abstract
Climatic extremes are changing and decision-makers express a strong need for reliable information on future ...
Climatic extremes are changing and decision-makers express a strong need for reliable information on future changes over the coming decades as a basis for adaption strategies. In the hydrological-hydraulic context, to estimate changes on floods, a modeling chain composed by general circulation models (GCMs), bias correction (BC) methods, and hydrological modeling is generally applied. It is well-known that each step of the modeling chain introduces uncertainties, resulting in a reduction of the reliability of future climate projections. The main goal of this study is the assessment of the accuracy and variability (i.e., model accuracy, climate intermodel variability, and natural variability) on climate projections related to the present period. By using six different GCMs and two BC methods, the "climate intermodel variability" is evaluated. "Natural variability" is estimated through random realizations of stochastic weather generators. By comparing observed and simulated extreme discharge values, obtained through a continuous rainfall-runoff model, "model accuracy" is computed. The Tiber River basin in central Italy is used as a case study. Results show that in climate projections, model accuracy and climate intermodel variability components have to be clearly distinguished. For accuracy, the hydrological model is found to be the largest source of error; for variability, natural variability contributes for more than 75% to the total variability while GCM and BC have a much lower influence. Moreover, accuracy and variability components vary significantly, and not consistently, between catchments with different permeability characteristics.
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Editorial: River basin hydrology and natural hazards_ Monitoring, prediction and prevention

Biondi, Daniela; Brocca, Luca; Castellarin, Attilio, 2017, Editorial: River basin hydrology and natural hazards_ Monitoring, prediction and prevention, Hydrology research (Print) 48 (2017): 613–615. doi_10.2166/nh.2017.000,

DOI: 10.2166%2Fnh.2017.000

Abstract
The 5th edition of the 'Hydrology Days' of the Italian Hydrological Society was held in ...
The 5th edition of the 'Hydrology Days' of the Italian Hydrological Society was held in Perugia, Italy, 6-8 October 2015, to provide a joint forum of hydrologists and a broad range of stakeholders for commenting and discussing on 'River basin hydrology and natural hazards_ monitoring, prediction and prevention'. A total of 58 abstracts were presented at the workshop. The 2½-day conference was organized by the 'Hydrology Group' of the Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection (National Research Council of Italy) in collaboration with the Italian Hydrological Society, the Tiber River Basin Authority and the professional association of Engineers of Perugia. Specifically, the Italian Hydrological Society (SII-IHS) was founded in 2009 to foster progress, enhancement and dissemination of hydrological sciences in Italy, including all aspects related to water resources systems management and possible interaction with human activity. In this perspective, one of the main objectives of the Association is to stimulate interdisciplinary collaboration among academia, research institutes, institutional stakeholders and private operators.
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Soil moisture for hydrological applications_ Open questions and new opportunities

Brocca, Luca; Ciabatta, Luca; Massari, Christian; Camici, Stefania; Tarpanelli, Angelica, 2017, Soil moisture for hydrological applications_ Open questions and new opportunities, Water (Basel) 9 (2017). doi_10.3390/w9020140,

DOI: 10.3390%2Fw9020140

Abstract
Soil moisture is widely recognized as a key parameter in the mass and energy balance ...
Soil moisture is widely recognized as a key parameter in the mass and energy balance between the land surface and the atmosphere and, hence, the potential societal benefits of an accurate estimation of soil moisture are immense. Recently, scientific community is making great effort for addressing the estimation of soil moisture over large areas through in situ sensors, remote sensing and modelling approaches. The different techniques used for addressing the monitoring of soil moisture for hydrological applications are briefly reviewed here. Moreover, some examples in which in situ and satellite soil moisture data are successfully employed for improving hydrological monitoring and predictions (e.g., floods, landslides, precipitation and irrigation) are presented. Finally, the emerging applications, the open issues and the future opportunities given by the increased availability of soil moisture measurements are outlined.
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Near real time de-noising of satellite-based soil moisture retrievals_ An intercomparison among three different techniques

Massari, Christian; Su, Chun Hsu; Brocca, Luca; Sang, Yan Fang; Ciabatta, Luca; Ryu, Dongryeol; Wagner, Wolfgang, 2017, Near real time de-noising of satellite-based soil moisture retrievals_ An intercomparison among three different techniques, Remote sensing of environment 198 (2017): 17–29. doi_10.1016/j.rse.2017.05.037,

DOI: 10.1016%2Fj.rse.2017.05.037

Abstract
Real-time de-noising of satellite-derived soil moisture observations presents opportunities to deliver more accurate and timely ...
Real-time de-noising of satellite-derived soil moisture observations presents opportunities to deliver more accurate and timely satellite data for direct satellite users. So far, the most commonly used techniques for reducing the impact of noise in the retrieved satellite soil moisture observations have been based on moving average filters and Fourier based methods. This paper introduces a new alternative wavelet based approach called Wiener-Wavelet-Based Filter (WiW), which uses an entropy based de-noising method to design a causal version of the filter. WiW is used as a post-retrieval processing tool to enhance the quality of observations derived from one active (the Advanced Scatterometer, ASCAT) and one passive (the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System, AMSRE) satellite sensors. The filter is then compared with two candidate de-noising techniques, namely_ i) a Wiener causal filter introduced by Su et al. (2013) and ii) a conventional moving average filter. The validation is carried out globally at 173 (for AMSRE) and 243 (for ASCAT) soil moisture stations. Results show that all the three de-noising techniques can increase the agreement between satellite and in situ measurements in terms of correlation and signal-to-noise ratio. The Wiener-based methods show least signal distortion and demonstrate to be conservative in retaining the signal information in de-noised data. Importantly, the Wiener filters can be calibrated with the data at hand, without the need for auxiliary data.
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Testing the potential of Sentinel-1A TOPS interferometry for the detection and monitoring of landslides at local scale (Veneto Region, Italy)

Fiaschi, S. and Mantovani, M. and Frigerio, S. and Pasuto, A. and Floris, M., 2017, Testing the potential of Sentinel-1A TOPS interferometry for the detection and monitoring of landslides at local scale (Veneto Region, Italy), Environmental earth sciences (Internet) 76 (2017): 492. doi_10.1007/s12665-017-6827-y,

DOI: 10.1007%2Fs12665-017-6827-y

Abstract
The recent Sentinel-1 mission, started by the European Space Agency in April 2014, provides the ...
The recent Sentinel-1 mission, started by the European Space Agency in April 2014, provides the scientific community with new capabilities for the monitoring of the Earth surface. In particular, the Terrain Observation by Progressive Scans imaging technique used in the Interferometric Wide swath acquisition mode permits to acquire data over very wide areas (250?km of swath extension) at 20-m spatial resolution, with 12-day revisit time, making it suitable for ground displacement monitoring applications. With more than 1?year of synthetic aperture radar images available, it is now possible to carry out monitoring activities of slow moving phenomena such as landslides at both regional and local scales. In this work, the potential of Sentinel-1A for the monitoring of shallow (from 2 to 6?m of depth) landslides occurring in the North-Eastern Italian Pre-Alps was tested. Two stacks of Sentinel-1A scenes acquired in both ascending and descending orbits were processed using the Permanent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) technique. The results, analysed in terms of PS density and quality, were compared with the ERS-1/2 and ENVISAT PSI database available from the Italian National Cartographic Portal to assess the capabilities of Sentinel-1A in detecting and monitoring landslides in respect to the previous satellite missions. The results of this work show the great potential of Sentinel-1A in the continuous monitoring of landslide-prone territories even at local scale. The achievable results can provide information that is useful to delineate the spatial and temporal evolution of landslides and precisely assess their rates of deformation.
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PEOPLE

Petrucci Olga, Aceto Luigi, Pasqua Aurora, 2017, PEOPLE, 2017,

Abstract
PEOPLE contains data about both catastrophic and low-severity events that caused human consequences in Calabria ...
PEOPLE contains data about both catastrophic and low-severity events that caused human consequences in Calabria (Italy) in a 15-year period. Data have been gathered from 5,475 daily editions of two regional newspapers (La Gazzetta del Sud and Il Quotidiano della Calabria), published between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2014
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RiST Project_ Il bacino glaciale della Bessanese come laboratorio di ricerca all’aperto

Nigrelli G., Chiarle M., Silvestri P., Merlone A., Coppa G., Musacchio C., 2017, RiST Project_ Il bacino glaciale della Bessanese come laboratorio di ricerca all’aperto, Incontro tra gli osservatori dei ghiacciai piemontesi-valdostani del Comitato Glaciologico Italiano, Balme (TO), 08/07/2017,

Abstract
RiST Project_ Il bacino glaciale della Bessanese come laboratorio di ricerca all'aperto. Presentazione di un ...
RiST Project_ Il bacino glaciale della Bessanese come laboratorio di ricerca all'aperto. Presentazione di un anno di attività, con particolare riferimento ai dati di temperatura in roiccia acquisiti mediante sensoristica con conosciuta riferibilità metrologica delle misure e con conosciuta incertezza.
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The influence of climate variability and land use variations on the occurrence of landslide events (Subappennino Dauno, Southern Italy)

Teresa Lonigro Francesco Gentile Maurizio Polemio, 2017, The influence of climate variability and land use variations on the occurrence of landslide events (Subappennino Dauno, Southern Italy), Italian journal of engineering geology and environment (Online) (2017): 85–92. doi_10.4408/IJEGE.2017-01.S-08,

DOI: 10.4408%2FIJEGE.2017-01.S-08

Abstract
The aim of the paper is to describe the results of the application of a ...
The aim of the paper is to describe the results of the application of a methodology based both on the use of time series analyses and of geospatial analyses of monthly climatic data (rainfall, wet days, rainfall intensity, and temperature), annual maximum of short-duration rainfall (from 1 hour to 5 days), and historical modification of land use in order to characterise the effects of these variables on the occurrence of landslide events. The methodology was applied in the Subappennino Dauno area, located on the eastern margin of the Southern Apennines thrust belt (Southern Italy). Despite the decreasing trend of rainfall and rainfall intensity and the increasing trend of temperatures and wet days, there is an increasing trend of landslide occurrence, highlighting the negative effect of anthropogenic modifications and the mismanagement of landslide-prone areas. This hypothesis was confirmed by comparing the distribution of landslides with the land use variations data (especially urban areas and wooded areas) collected from 1930 to 2006.
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IDENTIFICAZIONE E CARATTERIZZAZIONE DEI PRINCIPALI EVENTI DI SICCITÀ IN CALABRIA

R. Coscarelli, T. Caloiero, E. Ferrari, B. Sirangelo, 2017, IDENTIFICAZIONE E CARATTERIZZAZIONE DEI PRINCIPALI EVENTI DI SICCITÀ IN CALABRIA, Tecniche per la Difesa del Suolo e dall'Inquinamento, edited by Frega, Giuseppe e Macchione, Francesco, pp. 135–144. Cosenza_ Edibios, 2017,

Abstract
I fenomeni siccitosi possono annoverarsi tra gli eventi climatici più dannosi da diversi punti di vista ...
I fenomeni siccitosi possono annoverarsi tra gli eventi climatici più dannosi da diversi punti di vista (sociale, economico, sanitario). Nella presente memoria, tramite l'applicazione dell'SPI ad una banca dati, completa e aggiornata, di piogge mensili registrate in Calabria da gennaio 1951 a dicembre 2016, vengono individuati e caratterizzati i maggiori eventi di siccità meteorologica. Vengono presi in considerazione sia gli eventi a piccola scala temporale (SPI-3) sia quelli a scala più elevata (SPI-12), evidenziandone le differenze non solo come durata temporale, ma anche da un punto di vista di estensione spaziale
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Antropocene e Geoetica_ il caso-studio sulla percezione del rischio idrogeologico in Calabria (Italia)

Francesco De Pascale¹, Loredana Antronico², Roberto Coscarelli², Marcello Bernardo¹, Francesco Muto³, 2017, Antropocene e Geoetica_ il caso-studio sulla percezione del rischio idrogeologico in Calabria (Italia), XXXII CONGRESSO GEOGRAFICO ITALIANO - L'apporto della geografia tra rivoluzioni e riforme, pp. 134–135, Roma, 7-10/06/2017,

Abstract
La geoetica, insieme alla geografia, studia i problemi legati alla gestione dei rischi naturali, all'educazione ...
La geoetica, insieme alla geografia, studia i problemi legati alla gestione dei rischi naturali, all'educazione e alla comunicazione del rischio, al fine di migliorare la resilienza delle comunità di fronte agli eventi estremi. Comprendere la percezione della popolazione è fondamentale per il successo di un'eventuale attuazione dei piani di comunicazione del rischio, come parte delle strategie di riduzione dello stesso. Lo scopo di questo lavoro è analizzare, appunto, i meccanismi di percezione e propensione al rischio idrogeologico in un tratto di costa del Tirreno meridionale (Costa degli Dei), situato in provincia di Vibo Valentia (Calabria, Italia). Un questionario strutturato misto è stato somministrato a 300 cittadini dei Comuni di Tropea, Parghelia e Zambrone, utilizzando la modalità di campionamento non probabilistico, a scelta ragionata. Infatti, sul detto tratto costiero sono presenti numerose conoidi alluvionali che, negli ultimi cinquant'anni, sono state oggetto di un significativo sviluppo urbano (costruzione di edifici pubblici e privati, strutture alberghiere ed infrastrutture). Negli anni 2009, 2010 e 2011, tali conoidi alluvionali, densamente popolate, hanno subito gli effetti di numerose colate di detrito e di alluvionamenti, causati da eventi piovosi, anche non particolarmente eccezionali. In conseguenza di ciò, oltre a molteplici danni alle strutture ed infrastrutture presenti nell'area, si sono verificate condizioni di alto rischio per la popolazione. L'obiettivo del contributo, pertanto, è quello di analizzare_ la conoscenza della popolazione residente, o che lavora nell'area di studio, dei fenomeni idrogeologici (frane e alluvioni); la capacità della popolazione di affrontare e gestire situazioni di emergenza legate a detti fenomeni; il rapporto di fiducia della popolazione nei confronti degli amministratori. I primi dati emersi dall'indagine sono piuttosto allarmanti_ la comunicazione tra istituzioni e cittadini viene percepita dai cittadini stessi come inesistente. Inoltre, il 74% degli intervistati ritiene che le frane e le alluvioni siano "causate dall'uomo", indicando "abusivismo edilizio", "gestione del territorio", "disinteresse da parte degli amministratori pubblici locali" tra i fattori che influiscono maggiormente sul verificarsi di frane ed alluvioni. Dalla ricerca effettuata risulta, dunque, preoccupante il deficit di comunicazione tra istituzioni e cittadini; esso potrebbe essere colmato solo tramite eventuali campagne informative e la diffusione dei Piani di emergenza. Inoltre, è in aumento la percentuale di cittadini che considera i fattori umani decisivi nello scatenarsi di una catastrofe legata ad eventuali frane ed alluvioni. Ciò avvalora ancora di più la percezione di Crutzen e Stoermer, ripresa da altri studiosi, secondo cui ci troviamo nell'era geologica dell'Antropocene. Secondo Bonneuil e Fressoz, ciò che sta accadendo al nostro pianeta non è altro che "una rivoluzione geologica di origine umana".
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Public knowledge and perception of geo-hydrological risk in Calabria (southern Italy): preliminary results

Loredana Antronico (1), Roberto Coscarelli (1), and Francesco De Pascale (2), 2017, Public knowledge and perception of geo-hydrological risk in Calabria (southern Italy): preliminary results, PICO presentation in session IE4.1/NH9.3/EOS16 - Natural Hazards Education, Communications and Science-Policy-Practice Interface, Vienna, 23-28/04/2017,

Abstract
The analysis of risk perception is a fundamental tool to strengthen public awareness and knowledge ...
The analysis of risk perception is a fundamental tool to strengthen public awareness and knowledge that are directly linked to the way people perceive disaster risk. By means of a quantitative research method (structured interviews), a survey to acquire information on knowledge, communication and perception of natural hazard by the population was led with main reference to landslides and floods. With these aims, a questionnaire including about 50 queries was elaborated with the following main objectives_ i) the state of knowledge about landslides and flood phenomena of the people living or working in the survey area; ii) the ability of the population in responding to emergency situations related to such phenomena and the background coming from past events; iii) the trust of the population towards administrators. Moreover, the communication between citizens and Local Authorities when a catastrophic event occurs was evaluated. The survey was carried out on an area of Tyrrhenian seacoast of Calabria (southern Italy) where a set of mountain front alluvial fans develops along the narrow coastal plain. In the study area, a series of rainfall events in the years 2009, 2010, and 2011 have induced several debris flows, hyperconcentrated flows and inundations that threatened the population and mainly caused damage to private buildings and infrastructures located on the alluvial fans. Three municipalities were selected in the study area, where the proposed questionnaire was submitted face-to-face to 300 residents using a judgment sampling procedure. The preliminary results of the survey are alarming_ citizens don't have a good communication with local institutions. In addition, the majority of respondents think that landslides and floods are caused by "man-made actions". They indicated "illegal building", "poor land-management practices" and "lack of interest of local administrators" as the main factors that have the most influence in the occurrence of landslides and inundations. Also some respondents indicated "the lack of adequate defence measures for geo-hydrological phenomena". These first results evidenced that the difficulty in the communications with the local administrations and the low trust in their technicians are the main problems for the citizens in the study area. Therefore, it would be useful an effort by Local Authorities to implement a greater and more effective communication with the population. In this way, a better knowledge of the risk by the population as well as a greater empowerment of the individuals can be reached, enhancing also the trust between institutions and citizens.
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Un’evidente esigenza di pianificazione dal basso_ il caso-studio sulla percezione del rischio idrogeologico in Calabria (Italia)

Francesco De Pascale¹, Loredana Antronico², Roberto Coscarelli², Francesco Muto³, 2017, Un’evidente esigenza di pianificazione dal basso_ il caso-studio sulla percezione del rischio idrogeologico in Calabria (Italia), X SEMINARIO ITALO-FRANCESE DI GEOGRAFIA SOCIALE - RIPARTIRE DAL TERRITORIO. I limiti e le potenzialità di una pianificazione dal basso, Monastero degli Olivetani - Lecce, 30-31/03/2017,

Abstract
Col presente contributo si intendono analizzare i meccanismi di costruzione e rappresentazione del territorio, che ...
Col presente contributo si intendono analizzare i meccanismi di costruzione e rappresentazione del territorio, che si sono generati e riprodotti in presenza di un'azione umana associata all'esistenza di un rischio idrogeologico, nel contesto di un tratto di costa del Tirreno meridionale (Costa degli Dei), situato in provincia di Vibo Valentia (Calabria, Italia). In particolare, la ricerca ha interessato tre Comuni, Tropea, Parghelia e Zambrone, all'interno dei quali sono stati intervistati complessivamente 300 cittadini, attraverso un questionario strutturato, utilizzando la modalità di campionamento non probabilistico, a scelta ragionata. Difatti, sul detto tratto costiero sono presenti numerose conoidi alluvionali che, negli ultimi cinquant'anni, sono state oggetto di un consistente sviluppo urbano (costruzione di edifici pubblici e privati, strutture alberghiere ed infrastrutture). Negli anni 2009, 2010 e 2011, tali conoidi alluvionali, densamente popolate, hanno subito gli effetti di numerose colate di detrito e di alluvionamenti, causati da eventi piovosi, anche non particolarmente eccezionali. In conseguenza di ciò, oltre a molteplici danni alle strutture ed infrastrutture presenti nell'area, si sono verificate condizioni di alto rischio per la popolazione. L'obiettivo del lavoro, pertanto, è quello di analizzare_ la conoscenza della popolazione residente, o che lavora nell'area di studio, dei fenomeni idrogeologici (frane e alluvioni); la capacità della popolazione di affrontare e gestire situazioni di emergenza legate a detti fenomeni; il rapporto di fiducia della popolazione nei confronti degli amministratori. Dunque, viene valutato anche il ruolo degli enti pubblici deputati alla pianificazione della risposta sociale e, di conseguenza, come e quanto sia percepibile sul territorio la loro azione rivolta alla trasformazione delle forme geografiche locali. I primi dati emersi dall'indagine risultano alquanto allarmanti_ la comunicazione tra istituzioni e cittadini viene percepita dai cittadini stessi come inesistente. Inoltre, la maggior parte degli intervistati ritiene che le frane e le alluvioni siano "causate dall'uomo", indicando "abusivismo edilizio", "gestione del territorio", "disinteresse da parte degli amministratori pubblici locali" tra i fattori che influiscono maggiormente sul verificarsi di frane ed alluvioni. Gli intervistati lamentano, altresì, "la mancanza di adeguati interventi di protezione dai fenomeni". Dall'analisi dei risultati principali, perciò, si evince un modello di governance caratterizzato da uno "stato di emergenza democratica e partecipativa", che rende l'idea di come amministrare le città e i borghi, oggi, non significhi più governarli dall'alto, ma, piuttosto, mettersi in comunicazione con le comunità locali tramite azioni dal basso. Tale prospettiva stimolerebbe la nascita di forme di soggettualità territoriale finalizzate a pianificare l'area a rischio nel modo più sostenibile e resiliente per i suoi abitanti.
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Hazard and population vulnerability analysis_ a step towards landslide risk assessment

Franny G. Murillo-García (1), Mauro Rossi (2), Francesca Ardizzone (2), Federica Fiorucci (2), Irasema Alcántara-Ayala (3), 2017, Hazard and population vulnerability analysis_ a step towards landslide risk assessment, Journal of mountain science (Online) 14 (2017). doi_10.1007/s11629-016-4179-9,

DOI: 10.1007%2Fs11629-016-4179-9

Abstract
In this paper, an attempt to analyse landslide hazard and vulnerability in the municipality of ...
In this paper, an attempt to analyse landslide hazard and vulnerability in the municipality of Pahuatlán, Puebla, Mexico, is presented. In order to estimate landslide hazard, the susceptibility, magnitude (area-velocity ratio) and landslide frequency of the area of interest were produced based on information derived from a geomorphological landslide inventory; the latter was generated by using very high resolution satellite stereo pairs along with information derived from other sources (Google Earth, aerial photographs and historical information). Estimations of landslide susceptibility were determined by combining four statistical techniques_ (i) logistic regression, (ii) quadratic discriminant analysis, (iii) linear discriminant analysis, and (iv) neuronal networks. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of 10 m spatial resolution was used to extract the slope angle, aspect, curvature, elevation and relief. These factors, in addition to land cover, lithology and distance to faults, were used as explanatory variables for the susceptibility models. Additionally, a Poisson model was used to estimate landslide temporal frequency, at the same time as landslide magnitude was obtained by using the relationship between landslide area and the velocity of movements. Then, due to the complexity of evaluating it, vulnerability of population was analysed by applying the Spatial Approach to Vulnerability Assessment (SAVE) model which considered levels of exposure, sensitivity and lack of resilience. Results were expressed on maps on which different spatial patterns of levels of landslide hazard and vulnerability were found for the inhabited areas. It is noteworthy that the lack of optimal methodologies to estimate and quantify vulnerability is more notorious than that of hazard assessments. Consequently, levels of uncertainty linked to landslide risk assessment remain a challenge to be addressed.
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