Drought phenomena are one of the greatest damaging climate events and play a significant role in socio-economic and health terms. The analysis of the main characteristics of drought events (intensity, duration, recurrence probability, spatial extent, etc.) can be useful in order to alleviate the impacts of these phenomena. In this study, the drought features of Calabria (southern Italy) are analysed by means of a long homogeneous database, updated until the most recent months. The drought events have been evaluated on both daily and monthly scale. For the former, the frequency of long dry spells was analysed; for the latter scale, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) has been calculated on several time-ranges. Dry event frequencies were also evaluated using stochastic models by which a high number of synthetic data series has been generated. Moreover, possible trends of drought events have been also evaluated by means of a non-parametric test and graphical approaches. As a result, a general increase in the occurrence frequency of extreme drought events has been detected in the last decades of the past century and at the beginning of the current one. This result was confirmed also by the application of the stochastic approach, which revealed a tendency towards a strong reduction (about 50%) of the return period estimated for long dry spells. Moreover, results of the SPI trend analysis showed a general reduction of the index values, thus evidencing a tendency towards heavier droughts.

Collecting and studying the mortality during flood events came up as a relevant issue on the last ten years_ i) to assess the impacts of floods, ii) to assess prevention policies and iii) to improve prevention measures. The building of the MEditerranean Flood Fatalities (MEFF) database has been a first step to address flood related mortality in the Mediterranean basin. Data on the circumstances of death during flood events and the profile of dead people has been collected and put together for five Mediterranean regions_ Catalonia (Spain), Balearic Islands (Spain), southern France, Greece, Calabria (Italy). The period covered goes from 1980 to 2015. Till now, a first step to explore the interest of the database has been the analysis of raw data to show the general features of flood related mortality. But the raw data show strong discrepancies between regions/countries and periods regarding the number of fatalities and the profile of dead people. To go further, this presentation proposes to build a flood mortality index that can express mortality in relative terms. Flood related fatalities are linked to people at risk and a mortality index is calculated per million of exposed people. This Index might allow comparing the "weight" of flood related mortality through periods and between regions. Further exploration is tested to integrate hazard data (rainfall or discharge e.g. in terms of return period) as an explanatory variable of flood mortality.

Background: Damaging Hydrogeological Events (DHEs) are severe weather periods during which floods, landslides, lightning, windstorms, hail or storm surges can harm people. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency/intensity of DHEs and, consequently, the potential harm to people. Method_ We investigated the impacts of DHEs on people in Calabria (Italy) over 37 years (1980-2016). Data on 7288 people physically affected by DHEs were gathered from the systematic analysis of regional newspapers and collected in the database named PEOPLE. The damage was codified in three severity levels as follows_ fatalities (people who were killed), injured (people who suffered physical harm) and involved (people who were present at the place where an accident occurred but survived and were not harmed). During the study period, we recorded 68 fatalities, 566 injured and 6654 people involved in the events. Results_ Males were more frequently killed, injured and involved than females, and females who suffered fatalities were older than males who suffered fatalities, perhaps indicating that younger females tended to be more cautious than same-aged males, while older females showed an intrinsic greater vulnerability. Involved people were younger than injured people and fatalities, suggesting that younger people show greater promptness in reacting to dangerous situations. Floods caused the majority of the fatalities, injured and involved people, followed by landslides. Lightning was the most dangerous phenomenon, and it affected a relatively low number of people, killing 11.63% of them and causing injuries to 37.2%. Fatalities and injuries mainly occurred outdoors, largely along roads. In contrast, people indoors, essentially in public or private buildings, were more frequently involved without suffering harm. Being "dragged by water/mud" and "surrounded by water/mud", respectively, represented the two extremes of dynamic dangerousness. The dragging effect of rapid-flowing water totally or partially obstructed the attempts of people to save their lives. In contrast, people surrounded by steady water/mud encountered difficulties but ultimately could survive. Conclusions_ The study outcomes can be used in informational campaigns to increase risk awareness among both administrators and citizens and to improve community resilience, particularly in promoting self-protective behaviors and avoiding the underestimation of hazardous situations.

Scientific community recognizes warming of the Earth climate system unequivocal. The warming could induce substantial climate changes (CC) with relevant variations due to the region, weather patterns and time horizon of interest. In this perspective, the impact of CC on weather-induced disasters represents a crucial topic also due to the associated high socio-economic costs. However, the quantitative evaluation of the impact of CC on landslide occurrence, activity, and frequency remains a complex scientific question. Moreover, also land use and land cover (LULC), and their variations, affect landslide occurrence and the related risk. According to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an increase in the frequency and the intensity of extreme rainfall is expected in the Mediterranean area. This might result in a variation in the temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall-induced landslides, and in an increase in the size of the population exposed to landslide risk. Exploiting detailed landslide information, climatic, and LULC data, and future projections in a Mediterranean region (Calabria, Southern Italy), we propose three linked methods - quantitative and reproducible - for the regionalscale evaluation of past and future variations in the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides, in response to changes in climate (rainfall regimes) and LULC. First, using historical landslide information and daily rainfall in Calabria between 1921 and 2010, we study the temporal and the geographical variation in the occurrence of 1466 Rainfall Events with Landslides (REL; the occurrence of at least 1 landslide during or immediately after a rainfall event) and in their impact on the population. We find changes in the geographical and temporal distributions of REL, and in their rainfall characteristics. In addition, we evaluate the impact of the events on the population, revealing a complex picture of changes. Second, we use a subset of the previous dataset, related to the reference period 1981-2010, and high-resolution climate projections based on RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the future period 2036-2065. Calculating correlations between REL occurrence and weather variables estimated in the reference period, we assess future variations in REL occurrence, expecting a substantial regional increase in REL occurrence for the period 2036-2065, under both scenarios. We also investigate future variations in the impact of REL on the population, finding higher increases. Third, using the whole landslide dataset and two maps of LULC of the region (released in 1956 and 2000) we define empirical relationships linking the observed LULC variations to landslide occurrence, finding changes in the spatial distribution of landslides. Then, we calculate the projected variations (to year 2050) in landslide occurrence related to 32 scenarios of LULC changes, revealing a modest increase in landslide occurrence in all of them. We uphold that the observed and the projected variations in the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides in the study area are related to interlaced changes in triggering, environmental, and societal components.