1)Mauro Rossi, 2)Roberto Sarro, 1)Paola Reichenbach, 3)Rosa María Mateos, 2020, Probabilistic identification of rockfall source areas at regional scale in El Hierro (Canary Islands, Spain), Geomorphology (Amst.) (2020).,
URL: http://www.cnr.it/prodotto/i/432925

Modelling rockfall phenomena is complex and requires various input including an accurate location of the source areas. Source areas are controlled by geomorphological, geological or other geo-environmental factors and may largely influence the results of the modelling. In the Canary Islands, rockfalls are very common and they pose a major threat to society, costing lives, disrupting infrastructures and destroying livelihoods. In 2011, the volcanic event in the island of El Hierro, triggered numerous rockfalls that affected strategic infrastructures with a major impact on the local population. During the emergency, the efforts performed to map source areas and to model the rockfalls in the very steep landscape characterizing the island, was not trivial. To better identify the rockfall source areas, we propose a probabilistic modelling framework, which applies a combination of multiple statistical models using the source area locations mapped in the field as dependent variable and a set of thematic information as independent variables. The models use as input morphometric parameters derived from the Digital Elevation Model and lithological information as an expression of the mechanical behaviour of the rocks. The analysis of different training and validation scenarios allowed_ to test the model sensitivity to input data; to select the optimal model training configuration and to evaluate the model applicability outside the training areas. The final map obtained from the modelling, provides for the entire island of El Hierro, the probability of a given location being a potential source area and can be used as input for rockfall runout simulation modelling.

Data from https://intranet.cnr.it/people/