Caloiero T.; Sirangelo B.; Coscarelli R.; Ferrari E., 2018, Occurrence probabilities of wet and dry periods in Southern Italy through the SPI evaluated on synthetic monthly precipitation series, Water (Basel) 10 (2018). doi_10.3390/w10030336,
URL: http://www.cnr.it/prodotto/i/390422

The present article investigates dry and wet periods in a large area of the Mediterranean basin. First, a stochastic model was applied to a homogeneous database of monthly precipitation values of 46 rain gauges in five regions of southern Italy. In particular, after estimating the model parameters, a set of 104 years of monthly precipitation for each rain gauge was generated by means of a Monte Carlo technique. Then, dry and wet periods were analyzed through the application of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) over 3-month and 6-month timespan (short-term) and 12-month and 24-month period (long-term). As a result of the SPI application on the generated monthly precipitation series, higher occurrence probabilities of dry conditions than wet conditions have been detected, especially when long-term precipitation scales are considered.

Data from https://intranet.cnr.it/people/