Polemio, M., 2014, Hydrogeological modeling for sustainable groundwater management under climate change effects for a karstic coastal aquifer (Southern Italy), SWIM 2014, 23rd Salt Water Intrusion Meeting, Husum (Germany), 16-20/06/2014,
URL: http://www.cnr.it/prodotto/i/282261

Seawater intrusion is a pervasive problem affecting coastal aquifer, where the concentration of population and the increasing water demand creates risks of overexploitation, especially in those areas where is the only resource of drinking and irrigation water. This phenomenon is more considerable for the coastal karst aquifers, as observed in many Mediterranean countries and in some Italian regions as Friuli, Sardegna, Sicilia, Lazio, Campania and Puglia. This note aims to describe a research activity finalised to define a numerical model as management tools for groundwater resource of Salento (South Italy) to reduce the quantitative and qualitative degradation risks. The numerical codes used was MODFLOW (McDonald and Harbaught, 1988) and SEAWAT (Guo and Langevin, 2002). The active domain of the study area (active cells) covered approximately 2,300 km2 with 45,925 cells. Vertically, to allow a good lithological and hydrogeological discretization, the area was divided into 12 layers, from 214 to -350 m asl. Thickness and geometry of layers was defined on the basis of the aquifer conceptualisation based on the 3D knowledge of hydrogeological complexes. On the basis of detailed geological and hydrogeological conceptualisation, the climate change effects were considered in terms of natural recharge variations from 1930 to 1999 (Cotecchia et al., 2005; Polemio and Casarano, 2008). To take account of anthropogenic activity, mainly due to tourism and agriculture, the discharging trend was assessed, focusing on late decenniums (eighties and nineties), in which the discharge increase was mainly observed. Models representing the natural steady-state condition (using data of thirties) and transient scenarios of late decenniums were realised. The purpose of this first model implementation was, besides validated model, to assess the groundwater availability and quality in a recent period of seventy years (Polemio and Romanazzi, 2012; Romanazzi and Polemio, 2013). Results emphasize an essential decrease of piezometric levels and a worsening of seawater intrusion. On these bases, six forecasting transient scenarios were implemented, referred to future periods of about twenty years (2000-2020, 2021-2040 and 2041-2060) with the aim to predicting the evolution of piezometric level and seawater intrusion. For forecast data about precipitation and temperature, among the many models in the literature, we referred to the model developed by Giorgi and Lionello (2008), in relation to the defined scenario A1B. The model predicts temperature variations (

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