Massimo Melillo, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Silvia Peruccacci, Roberto Sarro, Rosa Marìa Mateos, and Maria Teresa Brunetti, 2020, Rainfall and rockfalls in the Canary Islands_ assessing a seasonal link, Natural hazards and earth system sciences (Online) 20 (2020): 2307–2317. doi_10.5194/nhess-20-2307-2020,
URL: http://www.cnr.it/prodotto/i/428376

Rockfalls are frequent and harmful phenomena occurring in mountain ranges, coastal cliffs, and slope cuts. Although several natural processes occur in their formation and triggering, rainfall is one of the most common causes. The prediction of rock failures is of social significance for civil protection purposes and can rely on the statistical analysis of past rainfall conditions that caused the failures. The paper describes the analysis of information on rainfall-induced rockfalls in Gran Canaria and Tenerife, Canary Islands (Spain). An analysis of the monthly rainfall versus the monthly distribution of rockfalls reveals that they are correlated for most of the year, except in summer, when other triggers act to induce collapses. National and regional catalogs with hourly and daily rainfall measurements are used to reconstruct the cumulated amount (E) and the duration (D) of the rainfall responsible for the rock failures. Adopting a consolidated statistical approach, new ED rainfall thresholds for possible rockfall occurrence and the associated uncertainties are calculated for the two test sites. As far as is known, this is the first attempt to predict this type of failure using the threshold approach. Using the rainfall information, a map of the mean annual rainfall is obtained for Gran Canaria and Tenerife, and it is used to assess the differences between the thresholds. The results of this study are expected to improve the ability to forecast rockfalls in the Canary Islands in view of implementing an early-warning system to mitigate the rockfall hazard and reduce the associated risk.

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