A simplified method for landslide damage scenario assessment based on historical data

Petrucci O., Gullà G., 2010, A simplified method for landslide damage scenario assessment based on historical data, Natural hazards (Dordr.) 52 (2010): 539–560. doi_10.1007/s11069-009-9398-8,
URL: http://www.cnr.it/prodotto/i/41753

The Support Analysis Framework (SAF) is a tool that converts descriptions of landslide effects into numerical indices expressing direct, indirect, and intangible damage. Sections assessing direct damage are made up of "elements" characterised by relative values and the "levels of loss" that they can suffer. By typing an x value into the cell representing an element and a level of loss, formulas multiply the value of the element by the level of loss, obtaining a value used in the damage indices assessing. Indirect damage deals with_ a) emergency response and b) efforts to restore pre-landslide conditions. The level of loss depends on the number of people affected (a) or the cost of actions (b). For intangible damage, the level of loss depends on the number of people affected. We assess the damage indices for a landslide occurred in Calabria (Italy) in 2005, using both the SAF and the SAFL, a customised version that takes into account the local socio-economic framework by including only elements present in the analysed municipality. We assess the damage indices for three scenarios with different initial conditions and compare them to the 2005 event; the results would have been useful to mitigate damage. The SAF can be used by nonspecialists, and it allows the ranking of damage caused by different landslides, thus supporting local authorities in prioritising countermeasures and civil protection offices to speed up responses to refund requests. The sorting of dormant phenomena according to their possible damage helps with defensive measures, emergency plans and insurance purposes.

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