Time-Space prediction of high impact landslides under changing precipitation regimes

Background

In Italy a significant increase of landslide frequency and intensity in the last decades has been occurred, whose impact must be evaluated with respect to the convergence in possible negative effects of both rainfall regime changes and of urban development as well as land use changes. Italy, due to its geomorphological and urbanization characters, represents today large areas where landslide risk is at the highest level.

Purpose

The general objectives of the project can be summarized as:

1. Finalization of innovative methods towards understanding of the triggering and propagation phenomena of landslides, as related to pore pressures evolution within (potentially) unstable slope materials;
2. Evaluation of the role of the changes in precipitation trends upon recent and future landslide occurrence;
3. Definition of procedures aimed at the assessment of landslide susceptibility and hazard, as related to the main, different, Italian geological and evolutional backgrounds.

Methods

The methods will vary depending on the objectives to be achieved.

Improvement and definition of hazard model: (1) The analysis performed at different scales will allow the preparation of hazard maps based on susceptibility analyses, expected displacement and evolution, scenarios with different recurrence time.

Synoptic definition and zonation of risk:

1. Update of catalogues of landslide and flood events with human consequences, arranging a new combined catalogue of geo-hydrological events;
2. Assessment of societal and individual risk posed by landslides. For the societal risk, the uncertainty associated to the established risk levels will be determined by the R free software, which will be distributed with an “open source” license agreement.

Quantitative risk assessment: Landslide Hazard and Risk maps will be drawn, based upon susceptibility maps previously made and on statistical/probabilistic analyses with regards to areas where a good knowledge of past landslide events is available.

Landslide Societal Impact evaluation: Frequency analyses on landslide events and on landslide fatalities will be carried out in order to refine the understanding of individual and societal landslide risk levels and of their temporal and geographical evolution since 1900.

Improvement of methodologies and procedures for hazard and risk mapping: surveys and analyses will be undertaken to obtain important information on hazard and risk assessment.