Examining the past to understand the future: testing landslide source-area morphometry as an index of possible coseismic origin

The project aims to identify the origin of large ancient and prehistoric slope failures in the Monti della Daunia, distinguishing between landslides triggered by intense rainfall and those generated by earthquakes. The study area represents an ideal context for testing the method, as it hosts hundreds of large-volume landslides of unknown origin, whose spatial distribution appears to show correlations with active seismogenic sources and tectonic structures controlled by the Apennine front.

The approach is based on the application and validation of the Triggering Potential Index (TPI), a recent morphometric method that analyzes the geometry of landslide source areas in order to identify possible coseismic triggering. Using high-resolution LiDAR data, multi-temporal inventories, and GIS analyses, the project will examine hundreds of known landslides and select a number of case studies characterized by high TPI values. For these cases, field surveys, detailed geological-geomorphological analyses, and sampling for radiometric dating (¹⁴C, OSL, ¹⁰Be) will be carried out in order to reconstruct the timing of the events and their relationship with historical or prehistoric seismicity. Comparison with similar scenarios in the Czech Republic will help strengthen the validation of the method in different geological settings. The results may contribute to improving regional seismic microzonation and to advancing the understanding of processes controlling large-volume landslides, thereby supporting land management and risk assessment.