Wasowski J., Lamanna C., Casarano D., 2010, Influence of land-use change and precipitation patterns on landslide activity in the Daunia Apennines, Italy, Quarterly journal of engineering geology and hydrogeology 43 (2010): 387–401. doi_10.1144/1470-9236/08-101,
URL: http://www.cnr.it/prodotto/i/41724

The historical variations in landslide activity are investigated in the Rocchetta S. Antonio territory, where sown fields cover 75% of the total area. The perception of the inhabitants is that landsliding has increased in recent years, and climate change has been invoked as a case. However, since 1865 annual precipitation has decreased c. 8% per century in southeastern Italy and local rainfall data for the 1955-2008 period show high inter-annual variability with statistically uncertain trends. In the same decades human alterations to the local environment were considerable. To demonstrate the impacts of land-use changes, detailed landslide and land-use maps spanning the 1976-2006 period have been constructed and the spatial-temporal changes in the context of the local precipitation patterns have been analysed. It is shown that the frequency of landsliding in 2006 was 160% higher than in 1976, even though both years were comparably wet. The sown fields increased by 46% from 1976 to 2006, and the landslide density was 55% higher on the new sown fields; that is, those cultivated after 1976. Thus, the higher susceptibility to landsliding is linked to the land-use changes and especially to the new ploughing for EU-sponsored wheat cultivation that has taken place on the steeper slopes.

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